harrythefish
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Everything posted by harrythefish
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Just had one rumble of thunder in Sale.
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A couple of distant flashes pretty much due West of here within the last 10 mins, and a long way away too as I waited for a minute but still couldn't hear the thunder. It's gone very windy too.
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The first storm here since last August and it's a cracker. I counted 15 strikes a minute from the first cell over to the west about 40 mins ago and 22 a minute from this second one that's just gone overhead. There must have been many many hundreds in total, more than the last couple of years put together.
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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.
harrythefish replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I used to think there was a link but no, there isn't. Obviously 2007 and 2011 had hot Aprils and poor summers but I remember the spring of 2003, before the record heatwave, had day after day of cloudless skies in March with temperatures of 16 or 17, and it reached 25 in April round here (I think it broke the record in Scotland). -
It's when snow showers come down from the North, hit Scotland and split either side of the country so Wales and the Yorkshire coast get shedloads of snow but we're in the shadow of Scotland and get nothing. Looks like a huge wishbone on the satellite.
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That next lot of showers looks good for a top up. Nearly two inches here, thawing but slowly.
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I'm impressed by the streamer on the radar. It's stretching from here well over half way to Northern Ireland so should be good for 2 more hours at least.
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It's like something out of the 1980s out there, it's just not letting up. Nothing even on the roofs at 8 and suddenly by 8.40 a covering and whenever it looks like dying down. off it goes again. Biggish flakes and visibility down to less than half a mile.
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Heavy shower with snow flakes in it this time and wind very gusty. All coming along nicely and looking forward to tomorrow morning.
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Next Mon and Tues look fine though with troughs in the northerly airflow according to the latest GFS maps
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I got the impression the city centre was having lots of interesting weather like huge gusts this morning whereas this street only had one bin blown over even though it's bin day
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It's surprising there's been proper snow in Manchester - just a few snow pellets in among the hail here. The clouds look wintry though.
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Snow now a bit heavier but not sticking to anything yet.
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Round here it's so light even the streetlight is no use. You've literally got to go outside and count individual snowflakes.
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First few flakes starting to fall here. If you look at the radar there is quite a big chunk of dark blue south of Knutsford heading straight for us and should get here for 9 I reckon.
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Still a mix of sleet and snow for Manchester. However, the snow is 90% likely to fall but the sleet only 50/60%. We have to wait till 8pm now rather than 5.
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There should still be a warning though, even if only a yellow and only for high ground. I remember there was a lot of controversy in the Scotland thread recently over a gale with 100mph gusts that happened at night and didn't get a red warning.
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You can't tell that much from the radar. Today Sale was under the pale blue for 15 mins - snow shower. Last night, mid blue and dark blue for 45 mins - nothing.
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Yes, the Met Office is doing the downgrade in bits to prolong the agony. Just rain for 7pm tomorrow and sleet at times during the night.
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Light snow falling here too. I think that's 7 days so far this winter, which is as many as we got in the whole of 2006/7.
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That gives a good idea how far east they expect the milder air to get. I've just had a look at the Liverpool forecast and it's just rain there. I did expect better given the wind's meant to come off the land right through and the front is supposed to arrive after dark. I thought that would make all the difference.
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Well the Met Office's 1000 update for Manchester has just changed the 13 hrs on and off snow tomorrow night into a mix of sleet and snow, if that's anything to go by. Not even a yellow warning out for anywhere (apart for the icy roads in Northern Ireland).
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Well it looked impressive but all that happened was five mins of sleet and a few snowflakes at the back edge as it cleared. Looks like most of the shower went to the south of here.
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This anvil has been building steadily from between W and NW for a good half hour. Almost overhead now and very gloomy to the W. I live in hope...
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Nothing but rain here, and already clearing up with blue sky to the west. However I just checked the reports from the airport and it's been snowing there even though it's only 150 ft higher up. Just shows how close it can get!
