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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>

A.J

By A.J
in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Hello again!

 

A new thread for you all to post your thoughts, musings & banter weatherwise for our region

 

It's looking increasingly like some of us will see some of the white stuff over the next 24-36 hours, and then it's time to batten down the hatches as a 'bit of a breeze' is then on the cards!  :blink2:

 

 

so please carry on here, and for continuity, here's a link for the old thread .........    https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81813-southwest-and-central-southern-england-weather-chat/page-53

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jethro
jethro

I have a plan......   All this marginal/north of the M4 malarkey is too boring to tolerate any longer, we've got to do something. Considering just how much rain we get down here, we could have the m

fergieweather
fergieweather

Agreed. Trough circa 3am may extend snow showers across even to S of London (hence UKMO warning amended). Meanwhile, latest UKV and MOGREPS signal for snow remains particularly strong for Exmoor and M

SMU
SMU

Ahhemm. More posts like that & I know where my snow shovel will be going.

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festivalking Experienced

festivalking

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
Posted

Times like this I am so happy we got a puppy last year. I feel like a morning walk with the lad up the hill Wednesday at 6.30am can get to 300 m/asl. Just hope any ppn makes it this SW corner of dartmoor!

fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted

In reply to a post on the last thread, I will take a bit of wet snow over what we have these past few weeks!

plus the models are looking better done the line

Fromey

khodds Experienced

khodds

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Posted

I do love the snow, don't get me wrong, but I love it even more if it settles and stays for a few days, and this obviously isn't going to happen. So I'm not too excited about tomorrow as I'll know it'll be gone by Thursday. Just hope that channel low scenario happens on Friday but my thinking is it won't

festivalking Experienced

festivalking

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
Posted

I would take 2 hours walking in slushy snow than 2 hours in cold rain! :)  I still have a sneaking ssuspicion it will all go wrong though. March 2013 (though not on this scale) still haunts me!

  • Like 1
khodds Experienced

khodds

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Posted

I would take 2 hours walking in slushy snow than 2 hours in cold rain! :)  I still have a sneaking ssuspicion it will all go wrong though. March 2013 (though not on this scale) still haunts me!

Was trying to think when it was that we had intense snowfall and none settled - but the mendips got obliterated- could well have been March 2013. Think I'm still scarred!

  • Like 1
festivalking Experienced

festivalking

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
Posted (edited)

Was trying to think when it was that we had intense snowfall and none settled - but the mendips got obliterated- could well have been March 2013. Think I'm still scarred!

 

i think this was when there were red alerts for the sw for biblical snow and in then it went all south literally and the channel islands got buried for 2 days! Epic fail!

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1421107200&regionName=sw

 

The warning appears positive for snow but towards the end of the update there seems to be a real uncertainty on the frequency and distribution of the showers. Its going to be a hit or miss affair I reckon 

Edited by festivalking
  • Like 1
warmintim Enthusiast

warmintim

Posted
  • Location: Warminster
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, stormy
  • Location: Warminster
Posted

i think this was when there were red alerts for the sw for biblical snow and in then it went all south literally and the channel islands got buried for 2 days! Epic fail!

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1421107200&regionName=sw

 

The warning appears positive for snow but towards the end of the update there seems to be a real uncertainty on the frequency and distribution of the showers. Its going to be a hit or miss affair I reckon 

This is definitely going to be a hit or miss affair. Some will get absolutely nothing out of this (either not cold enough so rain, or no precipitation), others could do well enough to see snow falling and settling. As ever this is likely to be yet another classic example of not taking NWP at longer time scales at face value. The old adage of getting the broad scale picture in place and then looking for things that pop up at short notice is often forgotten, but is the best way to go. The widely forecast Jan 2013 now from a front moving in (well forecast up to 5 days ahead) is the exception.

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted (edited)
 

Was trying to think when it was that we had intense snowfall and none settled - but the mendips got obliterated- could well have been March 2013. Think I'm still scarred!

 

feb 2009 was a classic example, we had 2 feet and wells had slight slushy deposits :oops: Your always welcome to pop up for tea :friends:

 

Often though height is just one factor and lower places can get just as much if the showers align just right etc

Edited by Nights King
  • Like 1
Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

While most of you will be intently watching for snow, i'll be watching for thunder showers. Modest cape values push in to parts of Wales, SouthWest and Southern coasts & cold ELT's allow for production of anything Wintry! I cannot see anything snowy falling here, so I'm holding out for some thunder. :D

  • Like 1
karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

i think this was when there were red alerts for the sw for biblical snow and in then it went all south literally and the channel islands got buried for 2 days! Epic fail!

 

 

 

Yes I remember that well, felt like being 3-0 up in a cup final, and loose 4-3 in the last 10 mins  :wallbash:

  • Like 1
karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

To my eye the snow risk looks more increased for our region Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning according to the GFS Op, which equates to a very quiet Model Thread it would seem  :D

 

EDIT, more so on the GFS(P)  :yahoo: until the next run.

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 2
Rich_Clements Rising Star

Rich_Clements

Posted
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot in Summer Cold in Winter
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)

Thats just it Karlos we get our hopes up only to have them smashed a few hours later, anyway fingers crossed for those with a little altitude.

 

Edit: Hell fingers crossed for all of us  :D

Edited by Rich_Clements
  • Like 1
AWD Maestro

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
Posted

To my eye the snow risk looks more increased for our region Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning according to the GFS Op, which equates to a very quiet Model Thread it would seem  :D

 

EDIT, more so on the GFS(P)  :yahoo: until the next run.

Channel low Friday mate? Who knows?!

  • Like 1
nettie Community Regular

nettie

Posted
  • Location: Bulford, Wiltshire 98m asl
  • Weather Preferences: frosty, lots of snow and good ol fashion thunderstorms.
  • Location: Bulford, Wiltshire 98m asl
Posted

Hoping any snow will make it this far. Told all the kids at work it might snow. They are all to young to remember seeing snow falling.

Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Channel low Friday mate? Who knows?!

 

I would say assume that it will not hit us because lets face it we have seen these in models every year only to see them utterly fail for last few decades now...

  • Like 3
warmintim Enthusiast

warmintim

Posted
  • Location: Warminster
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, stormy
  • Location: Warminster
Posted

Hoping any snow will make it this far. Told all the kids at work it might snow. They are all to young to remember seeing snow falling.

Too young to remember Jan 2013? I assume you work at a nursery then! :)

Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Looking through the GFS Op and parallel there is a ongoing wintry risk throughout the run at this stage! 

karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Channel low Friday mate? Who knows?!

 

I would say assume that it will not hit us because lets face it we have seen these in models every year only to see them utterly fail for last few decades now...

 

It's just nice to see them appearing. must be a plausible outcome or it wouldn't be there. Fingers, toes etc crossed 

nettie Community Regular

nettie

Posted
  • Location: Bulford, Wiltshire 98m asl
  • Weather Preferences: frosty, lots of snow and good ol fashion thunderstorms.
  • Location: Bulford, Wiltshire 98m asl
Posted

Yep warmintim I work in a pre-school. So you can imagine they are getting a little bit excited.

gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

I think a fair few of you might want to take a look at my post just now from the MOD thread copied below. I have linked to other experienced folk's thoughts within it.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82208-model-output-discussion-stormy-period-inbound/?p=3113440

 

 

:cold:

  • Like 1
karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Nice Tweet from Ian F

 

 

" W Country Tues brings a much colder day: between 5-10C less than today's values. Consistent snow signal in latest high-resolution modelling"

 

small steps people, small steps!

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 6
Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

I would say assume that it will not hit us because lets face it we have seen these in models every year only to see them utterly fail for last few decades now...

 

You know where it'll hit don't you, northern france/channel islands lol.....maybe i'm trying a bit of reverse psychology :D

  • Like 2
Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

You know where it'll hit don't you, northern france/channel islands lol.....maybe i'm trying a bit of reverse psychology :D

 

:rofl:  :rofl:  Don't say that I think I would have to relocate there if it happens again! :angry:

  • Like 1
AWD Maestro

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
Posted

:rofl:  :rofl:  Don't say that I think I would have to relocate there if it happens again! :angry:

You need to update your signature mate. ;)

New data to enter soon etc.

  • Like 2
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