POSSIBLITY OF -30C IN WINTER IN ENGLAND IN NEXT FIFTY YEARS?

[iapennell]

Just wondering what you think about the possibility of intense winter frosts and four feet of level snow in England is in the next fifty years is?  Could it happen??

 

1) Either Grand Solar Minimum (or a slow-down in the Gulf Stream caused by AGW-induced melting of Greenlnad ice) causes chilled waters around Britain and in NE Atlantic.

2) Extreme winter block forms from northern Siberia to Iceland to bring an extra-ordinary cold airstream from the northeast

3) The resulting upper-level "cold pool" passing over the South and Midlands leads to very heavy snowfalls.

4) Then the block extends a ridge south over the snowfields; dry and still conditions follow over England and with a deep snowcover reflecting the Sun`s heat and preventing the conduction of heat from the ground underneath leading to temperatures plunging rapidly from already very cold conditions under dry clear skies. Could the temperature drop to -30C with the persistence of such dry, still and clear conditions for a couple of days??

 

What are your thoughts on the likelihood of this happening at least once in the next 50 years; do you think it (potentially) could happen??

 

Ian

[SMU]

chances 1 in 500.

 

Your problem is the UK doesn't get stationary COLD surface air long enough for that type of temperature to develop, it would need 5-7 days ...

S

Edited January 16, 2015 by Steve Murr

[Jason M]

4 feet of snow and -30C    !!

 

5000 - 1 against.

[Dr. Astro]

I wouldn't have though so... Unless it's the highlands of Scotland and we have a sustained period of very cold weather.

 

It's never reached -30C in the UK I believe since records began.

 

-27C yes.

[iapennell]

chances 1 in 500.

 

Your problem is the UK doesn't get stationary COLD surface air long enough for that type of temperature to develop, it would need 5-7 days ...

S

 

During the very cold winter of 1981-82 there was very heavy snowfalls during December (esp the 8th, 11th and 13th) and an all-out blizzard with sebzero temperatures affected alnost all of Englnad and Wales on 8th January 1982.  Clear calm and very cold conditions followed the heavy snowfalls; -25.2C was recordede at Shawbury (Shropshire) in the small hours of 13th December and on the 10th January 1982 the temperature fell to -26.1C at Newport (also in Shropshire).  Unofficially there were reports of -29C in Shropshire and at the Crask Inn in the Scottish Highlands on the latter date.  Given the greater density of weather-recording stations (including many Automatic Weather Stations) over England today, and given that we cannot rule out severe winters altogether in our globally-warmed times (as winters 2008 through 2011 demonstrated) can we be sure! 

[Roger J Smith]

It will happen in 2052. Better upgrade the servers in 2051.

[4wd]

You could imagine a scenario where an exceptional cold pool developed over Europe then got nudged closer and extended its influence over much of the UK.
To get near such low temperatures requires snow cover and insolation under clear skies and long nights, it can only realistic happen in inland valleys since the sea is not going to freeze apart from limited areas in a harbour or something.
Four feet of snow is more reasonable but would still need some unusual stationary or repeating feature and even then it would be unlikely to be a nationwide event.

Some reports of historic cold spells such as London frost fair events do sound more like you might expect in say the Baltic states.
No matter what some will tell you that sort of cold is not something that is now impossible.

[Gray-Wolf]

With NASA and NOAA ( along with JMA) having 2014 as the record warmest year ( and 9 out of 10 of the top ten warmest years occurring since the turn of the century) we'd better get a move on or it will just become less and less possible as the planet warms and warms?

[March Blizzard]

I'd say it's possible, like you mentioned it's "just" 3.9C off the current English record. I'm of the opinion that "all bets are off" in regards to weather extremes in the UK these days, and it will only get worse in the future. You only have to look at the weather over the last 10 years, and how we have gone from one extreme to another, to see that another exceptionally severe cold spell is almost an inevitability.

 

If I had to give a one word answer to your question, it would be "yes".

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

About as likely as reaching 40c in the summer I'd say. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Well its happened before, so Im sure it will happen again!!!

[4wd]

With NASA and NOAA ( along with JMA) having 2014 as the record warmest year ( and 9 out of 10 of the top ten warmest years occurring since the turn of the century) we'd better get a move on or it will just become less and less possible as the planet warms and warms?

The type of conditions which allow exceptional low temperatures are so localised that it's hard to see how a starting point 0.5C warmer on average makes much difference. Heat radiates away at a crazy rate when conditions are just right.

[chicken soup]

It still wouldnt snow in blackburn.

[Daniel*]

It still wouldnt snow in blackburn.

To quote "it would be too cold".

[hillbilly]

No.The fact is we have hit the 'mysterious -27.2 deg on 3 occasions 1995,1982 and I think 1895[not sure on the last one].Even the 2 so called severe winters of 2009-2011 we only hit -22deg and if we look at some European records..Berlin -31,paris -23,copenhagen -25,prague -27 and warsaw -33deg what chance does England have.......that's right..None !!!!

[Bobd29]

I certainly would not bet against it, with solar minima, the earth's elliptical orbit moving further from the sun, volcanic eruptions, slight changes to the Gulf Stream etc. any or all could combine with the natural ability of the UK to attract a brutal winter every few decades. So IMHO you would be foolish to discount this happening once in the next 30 years.......but can we please have a moderated version in the next year or two

[tynevalleysnow]

50/50 is the best bet. Unofficial I recorded -29.4 at redesdale camp in December 2010 with 5 foot of even snow cover. It was so cold the diesel froze in the tanks of loads of army vehicles left out overnight on the otterburn range. I know cause I helped defrost them with hot coals in baking trays while I was contracting for them for 3 mornings in a row. If I recorded that at 1590 feet there what was the temp at 2800 feet above us on the tops!

Edited January 17, 2015 by tynevalleysnow

[Summer of 95]

I'm pretty sure there was a -30 somewhere in the Welsh borders or Highlands in 1981-2. Shawbury is not the coldest place in north Shropshire, let alone England. One of those deep valleys in the Longmynd/Stiperstones area (not Pennerley which is on a hillside) would be a better bet, and I always find the area south of Ellesmere (Myddle, Burlton) to be colder than Shawbury when driving around there on frosty nights.

-27 at Braemar, -30 in the Lairig Ghru?

[Eugene]

Bunch of pessimists, temps of -30C and lower has been reached many times in our history going back thousands of years just there was/is no weather station to record it, some of the midlands river valleys can get very cold indeed, one near me for example even on calm clear summer nights.

[hillbilly]

I see what some of you are getting at with additional weather stations and every man and dog having one in every secluded valley but just how are you going to get these values accepted!!?? Also with the exception of 1995 only ONE other reading has reached -22 in a total of 28 years !!

Edited January 18, 2015 by hillbilly

[stewfox]

I see what some of you are getting at with additional weather stations and every man and dog having one in every secluded valley but just how are you going to get these values accepted!!?? Also with the exception of 1995 only ONE other reading has reached -22 in a total of 28 years !!

 

There has been many more then one at -22c and below in England

 

IF and its a big if we see the jet buckle the polar vortex degrade in future years and we see more 'odd' weather I think there is 50/50 chance

 

https://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/10/16/top-ten-coldest-recorded-temperatures-in-the-uk/

[hillbilly]

There has been many more then one at -22c and below in England

 

IF and its a big if we see the jet buckle the polar vortex degrade in future years and we see more 'odd' weather I think there is 50/50 chance

 

https://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/10/16/top-ten-coldest-recorded-temperatures-in-the-uk/

Not sure you got what I meant...1995 had a reading of -27.2deg.In the last 27 years there have been no readings below -22 deg other than that of 1995!!!.The list you have given backs that up !!

[Peter H]

I think this sounds like a bad James Madden Fantasy

[Weather-history]

It's never reached -30C in the UK I believe since records began.

 

Blackadder in southern Scotland recorded a minimum of -30.5C on 4th December 1879 and this reading was seen as a record for many years. It's now fallen into the unofficial category.

[iapennell]

Blackadder in southern Scotland recorded a minimum of -30.5C on 4th December 1879 and this reading was seen as a record for many years. It's now fallen into the unofficial category.

 

@ Dr Astro

 

And given the higher concentration of AWS over the country (England is now well-covered), the right conditions could see -30C recorded in a Stevenson Screen somewhere in England (for example, Redesdale Camp near Otterburn, Northumberland records surprisingly frigid temperatures given the right condiions):  All it takes is for three or four days with strong east or NE winds direct from Siberia caused by low-pressure over the Channel extending to central Europe (with high-pressure from NW Russia to Norway), the effects of the low-pressure and passage of frigid air over the relatively warm North Sea gives widespread deep, powdery snowcover.  All that is then needed is for a strong ridge to extend from the Scandinavian High right across the UK so that dry, clear skies and calm conditions over the snowcover (combined with the frigid atmosphere) permit strong radiative heat loss and a rapid fall in temperatures from already very low levels.

 

Even if there is 1 to 2C global warming from current global temperatures over the next 50 years we cannot be certain this sequence of events in mid-winter will never occur in all of the next fifty winters!  As Britain's network of weather stations increases it is indeed possible that such extremes will be recorded (maybe in the bottom of an upland valley in North Yorkshire, perhaps somewhere like Swaledale or Wharfedale).