Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Gordon Webb]

I like the optimism ..

 

yeah I think that stunt dog from BGT has more chance of been forgiven

[Mokidugway]

Charts suggest that its certainly not out the question. As the 18Z rolls out too, it has shown consistently for the last few runs that anywhere as far north as Newcastle definitely has a shot at thunderstorms overnight.

fair point they are only 50 miles apart afterall ..

[Raidan]

Just got home and I'm sat in the back garden in a t-shirt and it feels quite muggy not chilly or cold at all wonder if the plume has anything to do with it.

[Nouska]

Oooh! One strike now on blitzortung over N. France. Seems there was a little outbreak barely south of me (Dordogne area) earlier. More progressing from Biscay.

 

Beautiful little popcorn storms to watch while we ate - fizzled quickly but always nice to see with such a clear blue surround. we hit 35C today, just south of Bergerac.

 

Sat pic as you would have been on the plane at that time.

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Charts suggest that its certainly not out the question. As the 18Z rolls out too, it has shown consistently for the last few runs that anywhere as far north as Newcastle definitely has a shot at thunderstorms overnight.

18z needs a kick up the backside!

[suffolkboy_]

For once I'm in one of the best locations for storms tomorrow, pity I'm stuck in a speed awareness course until lunchtime 

 

It's been a good number of years since I've seen a decent storm here. I'm not getting my hopes up too much though, as I know how these plume situations can change last minute. Looking further ahead the MO monthly forecast and other seasonal forecasts i've seen (such as TWO's) point towards a warm June with thundery outbreaks.

[A.J]

just caught Ian Fergusson's forecast on FB for the points west region.......those lovely words, 'high based showers with flickering lightning for eastern parts of the region in the early hours'......happy with that as that's where I am 

Edited June 4, 2015 by ajpoolshark

[Gonzolio Martinez]

Conditions in the centre of Norwich 15 mins ago.

I'm somewhat sceptical of the humidity though, I'm just north of the city centre and it doesn't feel that humid.

Edited June 4, 2015 by Gonzolio Martinez

[Buckster]

18z makes me think make most of this evening !! 

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Where are the first strikes likely to appear for the overnight storm crop? Wondering whether I can have a nap for an hour or two...

[A.J]

Where are the first strikes likely to appear for the overnight storm crop? Wondering whether I can have a nap for an hour or two...

5 minutes after you fall asleep....mwahahahaaaa   

[Gordon Webb]

Where are the first strikes likely to appear for the overnight storm crop? Wondering whether I can have a nap for an hour or two...

 

fist strikes will be where the biggest Unions meet

[Harry]

I can confirm first AcCas band, although thinning out overhead so must be on the edge of the plume

[Harry]

18z makes me think make most of this evening !! 

 

GFS 18z not getting past 06z for me on NW. Currently resembles previous runs, but with more impressive CAPE.

[Allseasons-Si]

How many is on here tonight,including me

 

i have been watching the clouds all afternoon from the works baydoor that have that convective look to them,they looked like jellyfish and you could see the ppn droping off them then evaporating,i will be getting my head down for a few hours while i will keep this site on and listen for the clicking

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime

 

i will have it zoomed in to around a 2-300 mile radius so i don't pick up any sound from elsewhere

 

good luck peeps,and DON'T FORGET TO GET SOME FOOTAGE

Edited June 4, 2015 by Allseasons-si

[Harry]

How many is on here tonight,including me

 

i have been watching the clouds all afternoon from the works baydoor that have that convective look to then,they looked like jellyfish and you could see the ppn droping off them then evaporating,i will be getting my head down for a few hours while i will keep this site on and listen for the clicking

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime

 

i will have it zoomed in to around a 2-300 mile radius so i don't pick up any sound from elsewhere

 

good luck peeps,and DON'T FORGET TO GET SOME FOOTAGE

I bought a camcorder this week, so fingers crossed I will

[Spikecollie]

For once I'm in one of the best locations for storms tomorrow, pity I'm stuck in a speed awareness course until lunchtime 

We'll talk about this later - not "stuck in" attending to make you aware of the need to improve your driving style and the impact that inappropriate excessive speed can have. Sorry - I worked for Speed Watch as a Town Councillor - a five year old child died in my ward hit by a speeding car (just 40 in a 30 - but you know the stats), and I'm sick of people doing 40 in my 20 zone and then at the junction being unable to get out because people are doing 50 in the 30 zone. Anyway, enjoy what show you get storm wise...

[Allseasons-Si]

I bought a camcorder this week, so fingers crossed I will

Unfortunately i will have to use my older camera as my best one died of death,let's hope the storms don't.

[stainesbloke]

Just been outside and there is a bit of cloud but many stars/planets visible. Lovely summery scent and feels less fresh than earlier.

[Greeny]

Conditions in the centre of Norwich 15 mins ago.

I'm somewhat sceptical of the humidity though, I'm just north of the city centre and it doesn't feel that humid.

 

I don't think its reached us yet because 10C is not warm and even though RH is high its not warm enough to really feel it. Although I think I can sense the air is fairly moist whilst being indoors. We must remember that the warmer it is the more moisture the air can hold so I believe (no expert here) that it would actually feel muggy if the temp was 20C with same high RH %.

 

Edit: Definitely can tell its 'close' when indoors making it feel warmer than it should be. Outside doesn't give the same feeling although I wouldn't catch a death being outside.

Edited June 4, 2015 by Greenday

[suffolkboy_]

We'll talk about this later - not "stuck in" attending to make you aware of the need to improve your driving style and the impact that inappropriate excessive speed can have. Sorry - I worked for Speed Watch as a Town Councillor - a five year old child died in my ward hit by a speeding car (just 40 in a 30 - but you know the stats), and I'm sick of people doing 40 in my 20 zone and then at the junction being unable to get out because people are doing 50 in the 30 zone. Anyway, enjoy what show you get storm wise...

 

Apologies, it was not meant to come across like that - I'm expecting (and hoping) to learn a lot by attending. I'm not a habitual speeder and this is my first ever time in all of my years of driving. What I meant was that I was frustrated that of all of the days I could have chosen to attend I chose tomorrow. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Signs of ppn starting to develope on the western side of that line in the BoB

 

http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&r&jaar=-3&soort=satradar

[Convective]

As I mentioned last night, signs still there for potential plume events later next week. Low pressure gaining control of Iberia by the looks of current model trends, providing many opportunities to fire up the thundery moisture needed for some 'proper' plumes!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Really am having doubts about this. Not feeling that warm out there. I remember the night it went bang into the 23rd July 2013, it was still in the mid twenties at this time now, and did not get below 21c all night at Wittering or Alconbury observation stations. Hope I'm proved wrong nevertheless.

[Mesoscale]

I think this is going to be a massive bust if im honest. Only tomorrow will there be storms... maybe.