July 2015 CET forecasts

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 10.6C while maxima look like reaching 19C, so a drop to 16.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

16.7C to the 24th (13.9: -2.7)

16.7C to the 25th (14.9: -2.1)

16.5C to the 26th (12.5: -4.7)

16.5C to the 27th (16.3: -0.9)

16.5C to the 28th (15.7: -1.7)

16.4C to the 29th (13.3: -4.5)

16.3C to the 30th (15.1: -2.3)

16.3C to the 31st (14.8: -2.4)

 

A well below average period coming up, 2.5C below 81-10 for the next 5 days and 2.6C below over the next 9 days.

I'd estimate a finish before corrections of between 16.0 and 16.6C, and 15.7 to 16.6C after corrections.

[IanR]

at least its not the year 1816   , what a shocker that must have been , what was the other summer months like that year ? ,  could we get another one that cool with the possible slowing of the gulf and cooling atlantic and low solar energy predicted  ?  

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.6C just below normal. More falls to come in the next few days.

[reef]

1879 was probably worse for warmth lovers as both spring and Autumn were rather cold. The only bonus is the period was bookended by two very cold winters. 1878/79 had two sub-zero months and 1879/80 had two sub 1C months.

 

November 1878: 3.5C

December 1878: -0.3C

January: 1878: -0.7C

February 1878: 3.1C

March 1879: 4.7C
April 1879: 5.7C

May 1879: 8.9C

June 1879: 12.9C

July 1879:  13.6C

August 1879: 14.5C

September 1879: 12.6C

October 1879: 8.9C

November 1879: 4.1C

December: 1879: 0.7C

January 1880: 0.9C

 

Only 12 days in that period recorded a CET of 16.0C or above. The first half of July 1879 was only 12.5C.

 

It puts this summer into perspective a little!

Edited July 23, 2015 by reef

[Don]

So, it's looking increasingly likely now that we are going to have another month where the CET will be more than 1 degree cooler than the same month in 2014. That looked incredibly unlikely early on in the month. However, for August to achieve a CET at least 1C cooler than last year will be a tall order!

Edited July 23, 2015 by Don

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's how 1816 (grey) compares with the CET averages and extremes, as well as this summer so far.

 

[Weather-history]

at least its not the year 1816 , what a shocker that must have been , what was the other summer months like that year ? , could we get another one that cool with the possible slowing of the gulf and cooling atlantic and low solar energy predicted ?

One forgotten cold summer is 1862. The highest maximum in London that year was on 27.5C....and that was recorded on the 6th of May! Edited July 23, 2015 by Weather-history

[Relativistic]

1879 was probably worse for warmth lovers as both spring and Autumn were rather cold. The only bonus is the period was bookended by two very cold winters. 1878/79 had two sub-zero months and 1879/80 had two sub 1C months.

 

November 1878: 3.5C

December 1878: -0.3C

January: 1878: -0.7C

February 1878: 3.1C

March 1879: 4.7C

April 1879: 5.7C

May 1879: 8.9C

June 1879: 12.9C

July 1879:  13.6C

August 1879: 14.5C

September 1879: 12.6C

October 1879: 8.9C

November 1879: 4.1C

December: 1879: 0.7C

January 1880: 0.9C

 

Only 12 days in that period recorded a CET of 16.0C or above. The first half of July 1879 was only 12.5C.

 

It puts this summer into perspective a little!

Stonking period of weather that, I wish I was there to experience it. Must have been incredible.

One forgotten cold summer is 1862. The highest maximum in London that year was on 27.5C....and that was recorded on the 6th of May!

Also incredible. Could that be the earliest yearly maximum ever?

[Timmytour]

You have to go back to 1879 to find a year where the first seven months of the year were each colder than the corresponding month of the previous year

[Yarmy]

at least its not the year 1816   , what a shocker that must have been , what was the other summer months like that year ? ,  could we get another one that cool with the possible slowing of the gulf and cooling atlantic and low solar energy predicted  ?  

 

 

Caused by the huge eruption of Mount Tambora the previous year. Curiously though, much of Eastern Europe has a positive anomaly in the above image so (assuming the data is accurate), it wasn't a simple case of "everywhere got colder".

 

Back on topic and it's been a notable month, right enough. Record-breaking heat at the start, yet we could duck under the 81-10 average.

Edited July 24, 2015 by Yarmy

[Summer Sun]

16.9c to the 23rd

 

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Today's minimum is 10.5C while maxima look like reaching just the 16s, so a drop to 16.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

16.6C to the 25th (14.8: -2.2)

16.5C to the 26th (13.2: -4.0)

16.5C to the 27th (15.9: -1.3)

16.4C to the 28th (14.4: -3.0)

16.3C to the 29th (13.0: -4.7)

16.2C to the 30th (14.2: -3.2)

16.1C to the 31st (13.5: -3.7)

 

Today's GFS goes even colder than yesterday, 3.2C below the 81-10 average for the last 8 days. If today's run is correct, the last 10 days of this July could be the coldest since 1966.

[Costa Del Fal]

Wow, if the last 10 days are the coldest since 1966, what a sad fact that will be. The peak of summer ruined by cold weather. We really are in an unstoppable cooling trend largely due to the Atlantic IMO. I really dread this will be in place for years to come if the negative AMO is at play.

Edited July 24, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[March Blizzard]

Today's minimum is 10.5C while maxima look like reaching just the 16s, so a drop to 16.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

16.6C to the 25th (14.8: -2.2)

16.5C to the 26th (13.2: -4.0)

16.5C to the 27th (15.9: -1.3)

16.4C to the 28th (14.4: -3.0)

16.3C to the 29th (13.0: -4.7)

16.2C to the 30th (14.2: -3.2)

16.1C to the 31st (13.5: -3.7)

 

Today's GFS goes even colder than yesterday, 3.2C below the 81-10 average for the last 8 days. If today's run is correct, the last 10 days of this July could be the coldest since 1966.

Wow, imagine if we ended up in the 15's after corrections! Would be very impressive given how the month started.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks like this month will see the largest difference between the CET on the first and the overall average CET too. The previous top 3 were

 

Year:.....1st...:.. Avg...:.. Diff

1968:  21.8C.:.15.0C .:.-6.8C

2009:  22.5C.:.16.2C .:.-6.3C

1952:  22.5C.:.16.8C .:.-5.7C

 

This year could well be over -8.0C (24.5C for the first, monthly average of about 16.0C). A rather pointless stat, but interesting nonetheless. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 16.4C should be 16.2C tomorrow

[Roger J Smith]

 

Today's minimum is 10.5C while maxima look like reaching just the 16s, so a drop to 16.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

16.6C to the 25th (14.8: -2.2)

16.5C to the 26th (13.2: -4.0)

16.5C to the 27th (15.9: -1.3)

16.4C to the 28th (14.4: -3.0)

16.3C to the 29th (13.0: -4.7)

16.2C to the 30th (14.2: -3.2)

16.1C to the 31st (13.5: -3.7)

 

Today's GFS goes even colder than yesterday, 3.2C below the 81-10 average for the last 8 days. If today's run is correct, the last 10 days of this July could be the coldest since 1966.

 

So back to where we started except for the football and the rock n roll.

 

Groovy, baby.

[Timmytour]

Looks like this month will see the largest difference between the CET on the first and the overall average CET too. The previous top 3 were

 

Year:.....1st...:.. Avg...:.. Diff

1968:  21.8C.:.15.0C .:.-6.8C

2009:  22.5C.:.16.2C .:.-6.3C

1952:  22.5C.:.16.8C .:.-5.7C

 

This year could well be over -8.0C (24.5C for the first, monthly average of about 16.0C). A rather pointless stat, but interesting nonetheless. 

..and there followed from those Julys quite chilly winters...early indicators?.

[summer blizzard]

..and there followed from those Julys quite chilly winters...early indicators?.

 

Autumn 1952 was magnificent.. cold. 

[Yarmy]

..and there followed from those Julys quite chilly winters...early indicators?.

 

It's the new OPI! 

[stewfox]

..and there followed from those Julys quite chilly winters...early indicators?.

 

There is no correlation but 1794/95 must have been a fun year for previous forum members 

 

18.1c... July 1794 one of the warmest July months on record (in the top 15)  followed by

 

 -3.1c   Jan 1795 (the coldest on record)

[Timmytour]

It's looking likely that July this year will be cooler than July last year. That being the case, it will mean that the CET for July has declined in relation to the previous July, for two years running.

That may not seem all that amazing, but it's the first time in over 20 years.....since 1991-1993...that it will have happened which seem incredible to me. Indeed I believe it's the longest period since records began without two progressively colder Julys in succession.

Let's hope we are not in line for another run like the 80s when, from the heady heights of 19.50C  in 1983, there was a slow decline to 14.7C in 1988 without any year on year increase  (though 87 was the same as 86)

.

Edited July 24, 2015 by Timmytour

[Lettucing Gutted]

Stonking period of weather that, I wish I was there to experience it. Must have been incredible.

Also incredible. Could that be the earliest yearly maximum ever?

I think for the country as a whole but I believe that some parts of the country recorded their highest yearly maximum in March in 1965.

 

It's the new OPI! 

or the JPI.  July Pattern Index!

Edited July 25, 2015 by Goodbye Cold Weather! :(

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 16.3C rounded up.

[Summer Sun]

16.7c to the 24th

 

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.2c above the 81 to 10 average