Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[Tom Jarvis]

Paul where would you go to if you could get out. Might be able to get out tonight at about 7:30. Where would you surgest I should go to??

[MrNooo]

Camera at the ready, won't be chasing but will sit in the Cotswolds and see what comes around. Need some rain desperately for my crops but could do without the huge hail as would strip them!

[Paul]

Almost impossible for forecasting models to pin down precip in these sort of situations, but some subtle differences between the 00z and 06z on the NetWx model - the 06z breaks out a bit more over the southeast, brings a bit more into East Anglia later and delays the 'lining out' of the storms until a bit later on. 

 

Much like the Met Office though, it's pointing towards the Midlands and Wales northward in terms of the potential for biggest rain totals etc, but bear in mind that this is chiefly because further south and east anything which does break out could be very isolated, but still severe..

 

Midnight - 00z

 

Midnight - 06z

 

4am - 00z

 

4am - 06z

 

Beyond the precip, plenty of energy and plenty of shear available!

 

 

 

 

[Tim Bland]

The radar shows this stuff is actually making an effort to avoid my area.

UK_RAIN3HR_24.jpg

Screen Shot 2015-07-03 at 13.10.39.png

 

No one should take this...or any forecast literaly.  All that shows is scattered thunderstorms. People should be realistic. Unless you are willing to drive 100 Miles + then most of is will not see storms directly over head....I would bet my house on that!

[ancientsolar]

The radar shows this stuff is actually making an effort to avoid my area.

UK_RAIN3HR_24.jpg

Screen Shot 2015-07-03 at 13.10.39.png

Yes, it's a conspiracy!! 

[Paul Sherman]

Paul where would you go to if you could get out. Might be able to get out tonight at about 7:30. Where would you surgest I should go to??

 

Tom 

 

The way I choose targets now is obviously looking at all the parameters in the first place, and we know exactly where they are for this risk zone, I then tend to look at about 4 -5 different model runs and take the consistant signal.

 

On 4th June this year I had a similar but much further apart decision to make with regards to Colorado (DCVZ) Or Nebraska/Kansas risk which was massively capped. Pros and Cons on both risk areas, Denver Cyclone is always Solid, Nebraska/Kansas if the cap broke would have probably put down a big EF4/EF5 Wedge Tornado such were the parameters.

 

I chose the Denver Cyclone because the hourly model runs consistantly put a Supercell to the SW Of Limon on every single run, the Kansas area would have a Supercell on the 13z then nothing again until the 16z run, it just was not showing a strong enough signal and capping could screw you.

 

End result was the Supercell of the year producing 8 Tornadoes, I lucked out it seems but playing percentages liked my chances

 

Sooooo

 

We have a smaller similar situation here

 

Extreme South East is Capped and believe me as I look up at the Sky we are under a Substantial Capping Inversion today, whereas the further west you go your odds are much better.

 

Now the model consistency, pretty much all the models I have seen are blowing something big up from Hampshire to the Wash from the 21z timeframe, and so with that in mind I would be somewhere between Oxford and Cambridge tonight and let it roll towards me, still have great options east and west or south east from there.

 

Hope that helps and good luck!

[BenFreeman_91]

I feel strangely optimistic about something happening over Peterborough tonight..... If we are lucky I will try and get a good video for you all 

[Paul]

Hi Paul

 

Is your 4km running a CU scheme, and is it nested or a straight 4km grid?

 

It's nested down from our MR (12km) model. It's currently running a CU scheme on both, as we've found that's the best performer at the moment. 

[legritter]

Still plenty of uncertainty even at this late hour ,but looks like wales west country west midlands and later further north could be the hot spot .

It must be a forecasters nightmare knowing where any storms will break out and possible intensity .

And also looking now that one or so notable ones could run further east .

certainly a case of radar watching and sat view later this evening especially after 7pm as the light will show up storm tops good at this angle .If i was a storm chaser i would base myself probably somewhere in shropshire but just a rough guide ,Sky here gone very milky and feels humid now also wind we had as now died out .

one spectacular storm passing over my area will please me ,but if its good enough areas around will still catch a good display .

so best of luck to all 

[Evening thunder]

For some reason our internet has decided to start playing up most of the time again, how convenient! so getting this post in while I can (haven't read last few pages yet), was feeling rather unsure of where to but glad my thoughts and instinct is in line with what Paul is thinking!

 

I do think the wording of the Met Office warning may not be completely correct in only really mentioning Wales/NW and the Midlands for greatest disruption risk (though maybe that's for rainfall totals not just intense storms), though I could be wrong. Also aware the warning map still includes the SE.

[UKSupercell]

Thinking I might be in with a better chance tonight in south Bucks. And if there's a clearer picture come the evening, I might head off in the car and chase. 

From all the posts I've just read: The north-west of the south-east doesn't sound like a bad place to be! 

Edited July 3, 2015 by UKSupercell

[Harry]

Upgrade on UKMO too!!! This is for 2200

 

 

This now very much in agreement with NMM...bear in mind, both the NMM and UKMO (especially) has been the enemy of the SE.

 

All we need now is Euro4 to fall in line....actually, all we need now is for the storms to actually happen, but you get my drift

For some reason our internet has decided to start playing up most of the time again, how convenient! so getting this post in while I can (haven't read last few pages yet), was feeling rather unsure of where to but glad my thoughts and instinct is in line with what Paul is thinking!

 

I do think the wording of the Met Office warning may not be completely correct in only really mentioning Wales/NW and the Midlands for greatest disruption risk (though maybe that's for rainfall totals not just intense storms), though I could be wrong. Also aware the warning map still includes the SE.

 

Look at my post above ET

[Mesoscale]

Bbc weather sorted skipped over the southeast for storms saying it was uncertainty, pretty impressive set ups over the last couple of days, especially for the UK, I woNder if lightning will strike twice haha

[Harry]

Also of interest to note, there is a fairly significant difference between the UKMO and NMM (as the two charts I've most recently looked at) in relation to timing.

 

UKMO has the storms rattling north by 1am, where as NMM suggests thunderstorms could still be knocking around southern areas at 2am.

[Gordon Webb]

I've got an early start to help my sister with a summer fete tomorrow even though I know nothing has started yet does anyone have an idea when said storms or rain will have cleared North from ME or is it not certain yet

Edited July 3, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[A.J]

Any predictions on the size of hail to be expected?

just did a street poll, and this chap said..

 

"6 foot wide mate, I'm telling ya"

 

[StormChaseUK]

Depending on what happens, I was thinking of heading South and up onto Long Mynd, East options on the M54 are decent too, as I can think of a few goo panoramic views. North a nightmare as it involves the A49 and its pretty flat, and slow as to drive if the rain is heavy. If its more out to wales the A5 gets me to Oswestry pretty quick and know lots of good spots around there... Prepared to go a fair distance tonight, if its warranted. 

 

Going to have to nick the wife's phone for a radar, and use mine to stream. Got to get over that issue first! 

Have PM'd you.

[Harsh Climate]

According to bbc weather there didn't seem to be much action east of oxford, I would think the best place to start chasing from would be worcester?? In a prime location for tonight but crucially also on the doorstep of the M5, so if need be can quickly head further north or south.

Edited July 3, 2015 by Harsh Climate

[davechesh]

Loads of mammatus under high cloud atm

[tomp456]

A load of high level cloud has arrived in the last hour, so the sun is now hazy. Humidity has shot up though. Is this good or bad?

[A.J]

just to wet the appetite, here's one of my favourite youtube storm videos...some insanely close lightning, a severe storm if ever I saw one!!

 

[Stormyking]

Loads of friends going up now like big friends (AcCas) thats what we call them lol 

 

 

ohh its on its side

Edited July 3, 2015 by Stormyking

[daveywoo1977]

No "H" word said by Carol on Wimbledon so we are in for a good night

[Arnie Pie]

Looking to chase a few miles in the early hours.....from my living room to my balcony
I`ll be streaming for the long haul tonight/ morning
 
Hoping to catch a few distant thunder heads at least... or indeed anything that can break the cap of storm despair which is rooted over Birmigham atm

 

Best of luck all...and keep taking the photos

[robmarks]

Interesting and brief comment to chuck into the mix...

 

Early this morning Meto forecast of precip for my area was 5%.  Up to 40% chance of precip now.

 

This suggests a change in the Meto and I think the core area to be will between Eastbourne and Bournemouth if you're on the South Coast.  Then move northwards.  Could be an interesting an active night.

 

Watch AND listen carefully to the forecasts.  They're not saying what some people think!