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Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted

This is clearly the area at highest risk tonight. Something big could kick off east of this area and towards the south east but only a CHANCE at this stage.

 

post-4607-0-37890200-1435928417_thumb.gi

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

just to wet the appetite, here's one of my favourite youtube storm videos...some insanely close lightning, a severe storm if ever I saw one!!

 

Good post - love this video!! Reminds me of the 28th July 2011 storms we had - ear splitting thunder and dangerously close CGs :D

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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted

This is clearly the area at highest risk tonight. Something big could kick off east of this area and towards the south east but only a CHANCE at this stage.

 

attachicon.gifuk-map.gif

I'll take that :D

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted

I'll take that :D

 

forgive me if I don't

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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted

This is clearly the area at highest risk tonight. Something big could kick off east of this area and towards the south east but only a CHANCE at this stage.

 

attachicon.gifuk-map.gif

Looks good to me. I think Worcester is a good bet as a start point but I'll wait until the last minute before making any decisions.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)

This is clearly the area at highest risk tonight. Something big could kick off east of this area and towards the south east but only a CHANCE at this stage.

 

attachicon.gifuk-map.gif

 

Based on latest model guidance I'm going to disagree slightly - this is my take on it. I am basing on the expectation now (as was a few days ago) that the cap will break. My guidance is largely where the highest instability and moisture overlaps, etc. 

 

Bearing in mind, my colours (unlike Nick F's or Estofex forecasts) are based on likelihood, not severity.

 

It's a bit of fun mind - I am not a forecaster of any training or qualifications

 

post-3790-0-11060700-1435929377_thumb.jp

Edited by Harry
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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted (edited)

Based on latest model guidance I'm going to disagree slightly - this is my take on it. I am basing on the expectation now (as was a few days ago) that the cap will break. My guidance is largely where the highest instability and moisture instability, overlaps feed, etc. 

 

Bearing in mind, my colours (unlike Nick F's or Estofex forecasts) are based on likelihood, not severity.

 

It's a bit of fun mind - I am not a forecaster of any training or qualifications

 

attachicon.gifHH 14z 030715.jpg

 

I hope the big round blue line covering most of the UK means 100% chance of the best lightning display of our lives and not your key at the bottom.

Edited by Chris K
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Mokidugway Maestro

Mokidugway

Posted
Posted

Based on latest model guidance I'm going to disagree slightly - this is my take on it. I am basing on the expectation now (as was a few days ago) that the cap will break. My guidance is largely where the highest instability and moisture overlaps, etc. 

 

Bearing in mind, my colours (unlike Nick F's or Estofex forecasts) are based on likelihood, not severity.

 

It's a bit of fun mind - I am not a forecaster of any training or qualifications

 

attachicon.gifHH 14z 030715.jpg

Lincolnshire lol !!!.
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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Based on latest model guidance I'm going to disagree slightly - this is my take on it. I am basing on the expectation now (as was a few days ago) that the cap will break. My guidance is largely where the highest instability and moisture overlaps, etc. 

 

Bearing in mind, my colours (unlike Nick F's or Estofex forecasts) are based on likelihood, not severity.

 

It's a bit of fun mind - I am not a forecaster of any training or qualifications

 

attachicon.gifHH 14z 030715.jpg

Scaring me now!!  :rofl:

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Looks good to me. I think Worcester is a good bet as a start point but I'll wait until the last minute before making any decisions.

 

I think Oxford would be a good start point but lets be honest its going to be a case of waiting for developments.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

I hope the big round blue line covering most of the UK means 100% chance of the best lightning display of our lives and not your key at the bottom.

 

Lol...no it doesn't I'm afraid - the violet line around N EA/The Wash/Lincs doesn't even translate as 100%, but does translate as "wtf where are my storms" lol

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Stormyking Rising Star

Stormyking

Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
Posted

As we do our own local forecast this what we think, and our map area basically

 

Thunderstorms? A complicated evening ahead!

With all the different computer models showing different scenarios for this evenings potential storms, we have concluded the most likely outcome will be this.

After a very warm day the cloud is likely to increase towards the evening with the risk of the odd thundery shower developing although the more severe and active weather will develop to the north of the island.
There may be further thundery showers and rain developing close to the IOW but at the moment it seems as though the main bulk of the activity will be towards the mainland later on in the evening.
All the thundery weather will clear northwards through the night and into the early hours of the morning.

Please note that a couple of the computer models still put the strongest storms over our area but we are extremely uncertain how probable this outcome will be, which means we aren't ruling out storms at this point but we are expecting the bulk of the activity to be further north.

We will give you further updates later as the high resolution computer model data is released because things may still change.

Ryan Trigg will give you further updates as and when the information becomes available and I will be updating you all again later on today.

11012414_1043099989042523_74225797630649

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted

I wonder if the met office will issue an amber alert later or even a red warning?

 

Surely if a severe storm does develop as they expect they will do, that must warrant a red warning? IMO they won't and that is where the met office fail in my eyes, they are so poor at keeping the public informed in developing severe weather situations or when they are happening!

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

I wonder if the met office will issue an amber alert later or even a red warning?

 

Surely if a severe storm does develop as they expect they will do, that must warrant a red warning? IMO they won't and that is where the met office fail in my eyes, they are so poor at keeping the public informed in developing severe weather situations or when they are happening!

 

Not likely...the storms over N England on Wednesday were about as severe as we get...that only squeezed a yellow! Perhaps lacking (from the reports) were damaging winds and pronounced tornado threat (less threat than El Brumo). If the MetO issue an amber warning (if) my guess is it would be from flooding risk...I believe Estofex used the term "extreme precipitation"...I don't think I have seen them use that expression before, but stand to be corrected.

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Popular Post
Posted

Am re-running our SR model with a slightly tweaked setup which is usually very good in thunderstorm situations (less so at other times, hence why we don't run it as standard). Will post up results once it's complete!

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted (edited)

I wonder if the met office will issue an amber alert later or even a red warning?

 

Surely if a severe storm does develop as they expect they will do, that must warrant a red warning? IMO they won't and that is where the met office fail in my eyes, they are so poor at keeping the public informed in developing severe weather situations or when they are happening!

 

Red warning definition:

 

"Extreme weather is expected. Red means you should take action now to keep yourself and others safe from the impact of the weather. Widespread damage, travel and power disruption and risk to life is likely. You must avoid dangerous areas and follow the advice of the emergency services and local authorities."

 

I cannot see any situation where storms in this country would warrant a red warning. I'd be surprised if an amber warning is necessary too, simply because it's far too hit and miss.

 

I really think people are bigging up this event far too much.

Edited by Nick L
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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted (edited)

I wonder if the met office will issue an amber alert later or even a red warning?

 

Surely if a severe storm does develop as they expect they will do, that must warrant a red warning? IMO they won't and that is where the met office fail in my eyes, they are so poor at keeping the public informed in developing severe weather situations or when they are happening!

 

Why do they need to ?

 

Usually a red warning gets issued as an event has started like the Devon situation about 5 years ago, there is not even a thunderstorm yet so your arguement is pretty much invalid.

 

Also the area highlighted by the met is mainly for a severe MCS And not dangerous storms, yes they may contain hail to severe limits but would expect the main concerns is the amount of rainfall due to 35-40mm PWAT Values and that would not fall into the Criteria unlike the Cumbria event of training rainfall again quite a few years ago

Edited by Paul Sherman
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ancientsolar Community Regular

ancientsolar

Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
Posted

Latest from Manchester Uni APP

Is this suggesting that once the cloud/storms make landfall over Devon and Cornwall they will intensify as they Push NE.. 

but storms coming in off the sea towards SE England will also develop but making it less likely for the SE to see severe storms ?

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Paul90 Apprentice

Paul90

Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport
Posted

This is clearly the area at highest risk tonight. Something big could kick off east of this area and towards the south east but only a CHANCE at this stage.

 

attachicon.gifuk-map.gif

 

BANK 

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BA Baracus Enthusiast

BA Baracus

Posted
  • Location: Liversedge, West Yorkshire ASL : 74m
  • Location: Liversedge, West Yorkshire ASL : 74m
Posted

Based upon various models and past experience I have created a crude diagram of my thoughts.  Storms start to fire in a line from Cardiff down towards IOW and move north.  One batch follows the M1 and the other the M6, diverging around Sheffield / Leeds / Hudds and then rejoining just north of Leeds before heading directly to Newcastle.  The black area is the area of most severe disappointment.

 

 

post-7278-0-03162300-1435930656_thumb.pn

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Andy Pepler Enthusiast

Andy Pepler

Posted
  • Location: Westbury wiltshire
  • Location: Westbury wiltshire
Posted

just to wet the appetite, here's one of my favourite youtube storm videos...some insanely close lightning, a severe storm if ever I saw one!!

 

please please can i have one storm like this in my lifetime ..... warning epic storm video

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