Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[Nick L]

Good to know how it appears on radar.

 

If it randomly and suddenly appears and moves erratically or not at all between frames, then it's most likely to be anaprop.

[Mapantz]

'Loaded gun' skies here, now.

 

It is the warmest it has been all day, but, the humidity has been falling, feels pretty fresh.

[Methuselah]

Very hazy skies now and pretty breezy, quite chilly compared to a couple of hours ago. I'm erring on the side of hmmm maybe a few flashes to the west later on because every time I rig up the camera etc nowt happens......and half the time I can't remember the settings but at least I get to practice in the dark

You might even catch a sight of my rattle, as hurtles past!

[StormChaseUK]

If you miss out..

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

If it randomly and suddenly appears and moves erratically or not at all between frames, then it's most likely to be anaprop.

Cheers.

[robmarks]

Latest Meto precip forecast is starting to show more action for the SE corner.  Could the UKMO be falling into line with GFS, albeit very late?

[SalopWatcher]

If it randomly and suddenly appears and moves erratically or not at all between frames, then it's most likely to be anaprop.

 

I did think that, but did not want to say it when not 100%.... if thats a good example of how it looks on the radar, then im better prepared to spot it next time! 

 

Cheers 

[AWD]

I think Hampshire, up towards Berkshire, Hertfordshire, Cambridgeshire & Lincolnshire could be the sweet spots over the next 12hrs or so.

Further west will be a wet fart and the far south east corner could escape dry;

Netweather in house model, whilst hinting at something a little more widespread, also shows the above regions as sweet spots.

Edited July 3, 2015 by AWD

[cotswoldsnow]

Last summer the MetO issued a wide amber warning across England for severe T-storms. Very little happened. As is the case with this kind of event it is all or nothing. And sometimes it surprises everyone with being a nowcast thing. IMO there is very little point in issuing a red warning for a storm already in progress which is on the move.

 

I wouldn't be surprised, however, to see certain regions upped to an amber nearer the time as models update.

Nowcast is the way forward. Enjoy this evening folks. For me, a glass of wine in the garden. if anything occurs i'll nowcast it....

[Supacell]

Whilst filming this storm over Ljubljana, Slovenia I was too distracted by the lightning bolts and thunder crashes that I did not notice it's rotation. This is sped up but check out this rotation!!

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

STORM SNACKS!! :-D

[Gordon Webb]

A good chance of some real T.Storm action tonight for our region by the looks of things.

I am certainly no expert on storm formation but tonight seems our best chance of this hot spell as moist Tropical Atlantic air enters the mix.

Looking at the 06Z Nweather s/r model a line of storms are forecasted to be heading into our region by 00z tonight.

storms.png

some very intense downpours in that lot I would think.

let's hope for a light show tonight.

 

in the interest of fairness I hope it's not that severe of course a couple of hours later most of that is gone with a bit of luck

[jamesbhx]

See http://www.radartutorial.eu/07.waves/wa17.en.html for more information on anaprop. Although radar processing does remove a lot of "clutter", it is not completely foolproof and the occasional spots do get through. It is often worse around sunset or sunrise. Flocks of birds, aircraft and even swarms of insects sometimes show up on weather radar. I have even seen the ISS orbiting the earth appear on primary radar (air traffic control) due to refraction of the beam upwards in to space.

Edited July 3, 2015 by jamesbhx

[Wilxy]

Looks very poor on latest gfs for western areas i think heading east is a safer option at this stage i think oxford is going to be a good place to start.

[BA Baracus]

The Hartlepool blob has gone so looks to be a radar glitch.

[William Grimsley]

The sky looking south.

Edited July 3, 2015 by William Grimsley

[sparky1972]

cant believe how windy it has got here, feeling fresh in an easterly wind, very cloudy skies now and not feeling remotely thundery

[Nick F]

12z UKMO (meso) looks interesting, at 21z it develops a line of convective precip. from Abbeville (France) NW towards IoW and Hants and more widespread general rain/embedded convective activity across Midlands, West Country, Wales and Ireland. This band then intensifying and shifting N across Ireland, Wales, central England, SE England and E Anglia by midnight ... then N England, N Ireland by 3am ... then Scotland by 6am.

 

Pretty similar to what the Netwx model charts Paul posted earlier was showing.

Edited July 3, 2015 by Nick F

[Methuselah]

The sky looking south.

Was that a random thought, William?

[Homerr]

Keep getting high level cloud come and go over here at the moment (Harefield, most north west part of london) and it is quite humid, and around 25-26c

 

Here's to hoping something really kicks off tonight, my shiny new Nikon DSLR needs some storms to capture!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks very poor on latest gfs for western areas i think heading east is a safer option at this stage i think oxford is going to be a good place to start.

 

The GFS has been poor in this respect for a while....could be right but MLCAPE looks fine for a time tonight, even in the west. I Just don't know what's going on or what will unfold tonight TBH.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I think Hampshire, up towards Berkshire, Hertfordshire, Cambridgeshire & Lincolnshire could be the sweet spots over the next 12hrs or so.

Further west will be a wet fart and the far south east corner could escape dry;

wp_ss_20150703_0001.png

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_15070400_0306.gif

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_15070403_0306.gif

Netweather in house model, whilst hinting at something a little more widespread, also shows the above regions as sweet spots.

Now that is one hell of a deluge if that comes off!

[StormChaseUK]

STORM SNACKS!! :-D

image.jpg

Well prepared. Bubblewrap the car just incase.

[William Grimsley]

Was that a random thought, William?

Certainly not. It's unstable!