Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[gottolovethisweather]

It's hidden deep in the text, but it highlights the higher tornado threat.

 

I think this should be added to the key in future, Paul/Nick?

 

Thanks Nick L.

[matt_in_dudley]

Haze starting to clear a bit here.

[Snowshine]

These storms had better be good...

 

Metcheck

 

The UK weather looks set to revert back to more traditional conditions next week as we say goodbye to the heat and storms of this week and hello to our old friend the jet stream who will feed in Atlantic low pressure systems and much fresher conditions. In fact, going by the forecast chart above, it could be a very early taste of autumn, or a return to spring (Ed. don't go there). 

Anyway, the weekend sees the transition to cooler and fresher conditions taking place, this potentially bringing some severe thunderstorms in places on Friday night before these clear away to the north on Saturday. However it's going to take a while for that fresher air to reach the southeast of England, so expect another very warm or hot day on Saturday before temperatures start to drop a touch from Sunday onwards and return to near normal levels next week with night times much more comfortable for sleeping - in fact the GFS model is suggesting possible ground frosts in the north later next week but that's probably taking the autumn theme a touch too far at this stage (Ed. Stop it!) 

Weather wise and although it's rather changeable outlook, we're not expecting conditions to be too bad. There will be some rain or showers at times along with some brisk winds, but the worse of these will generally be for the north and west of the country with the southeast continuing to see a fair amount of dry weather for much of the time.

The north-westerlies are coming!   

[Supacell]

Yes, I'm broadly looking at the situation the same as you I'm staying put now in Sheffield this evening, but I have somewhere around Grantham in mind should the severe stuff kick off further east. I'm looking at quiet b-roads near Grantham to put in my satnav just n case!

 

I would agree with Grantham as being a good place should the "potential" supercell that has been modeled happens as per the models (and now the BBC graphics). It is easy to get west or east from there using the A52 and north or south using the A1 or A15. Added benefits of chasing at night are that there is much less traffic and you can also use lightning as a guide if storms are already ongoing. I had no internet on Weds night so just took myself to the risk area and then followed the lightning to get into the storm. Bear in mind storms will be moving quickly so you want to be ahead of the storm, not behind it.

[Jan]

Think you will do really well down there but think I'm going to do well here as well. No local reports from around here now

Hi Chris, it was 27c when I left Liverpool in strong sunshine, once I got through the tunnel and over the Welsh border it dropped to

22c/23c with a lot of high cloud, sun is coming out again now. Hopefully head off to the hills later

[William Grimsley]

Interesting undulatus cloud to my south now, a distinct boundary between it and clearer skies just sat out in the channel. Maybe thunderstorms will brew off it?

[mhielte]

I would agree with Grantham as being a good place should the "potential" supercell that has been modeled happens as per the models (and now the BBC graphics). It is easy to get west or east from there using the A52 and north or south using the A1 or A15. Added benefits of chasing at night are that there is much less traffic and you can also use lightning as a guide if storms are already ongoing. I had no internet on Weds night so just took myself to the risk area and then followed the lightning to get into the storm. Bear in mind storms will be moving quickly so you want to be ahead of the storm, not behind it.

Yeah that's the only thing really with Grantham being further south, I don't want to punch through any storm, rather sit and wait as it comes to me. So further north but a similar distance east might suit as well.

[Biggin]

Better stop reading, it was all going so well for the SE. Off to pub Bye!!    

[STORMGUY]

Beatifull hot sunshine out now lovely.

[tomp456]

Latest sky forecast has sod all East of iow.

Looks like Hampshire will get things going tonight.

If only it could shift a few miles east to West Sussex

[Supacell]

Yeah that's the only thing really with Grantham being further south, I don't want to punch through any storm, rather sit and wait as it comes to me. So further north but a similar distance east might suit as well.

 

Lincoln may be a good bet for you if things get going to the south 

[Panayiotis]

Taken just a few moments ago, lovely undulatus...

 

 

Feeling v.humid here...T:26C DP:12C

Edited July 3, 2015 by Panayiotis

[mhielte]

Yeah that's the only thing really with Grantham being further south, I don't want to punch through any storm, rather sit and wait as it comes to me. So further north but a similar distance east might suit as well.

 

Or, further north just east of Newark-on-Trent with clear views to the south on the roads there.

[sparky1972]

just got in, car only reading 19c and a very strong and fresh easterly wind, nothing humid or thundery here currently and dont expect it to change much at all, although i have seen a few comment here saying lincs is in the zone, lol

[mhielte]

Lincoln may be a good bet for you if things get going to the south 

 

Yeah, or Lincolnshire! I'm spoilt for choice to be honest, but all is ready to go later so I'll draw up a short list of places to stop at should everything go to plan   

Edited July 3, 2015 by Malcolm Hielte

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

just got in, car only reading 19c and a very strong and fresh easterly wind, nothing humid or thundery here currently and dont expect it to change much at all, although i have seen a few comment here saying lincs is in the zone, lol

That will change as the night goes on. Humidity will increase and the temp will hold up, not forecast to go any lower lol.

As it is elevated development, surface Easterlies here won't matter.

I remember June 28th 2005 had a strong easterly develop like now, and what was delivered that night was truly marvellous!

[sparky1972]

anyone thinking of storm chasing i would say stick to north Lincs rather than south, just a hunch but conditions just dont feel right.

[ChezWeather]

UKMO, NWX-Sr, EURO4 and GFS all favouring an area North of Oxford into Lincolnshire! 

NMM slightly further east. 

 

Some large totals on the EURO4 

Edited July 3, 2015 by ChezWeather

[thunderhead 2005]

first cells appearing just sw of cornwall.

[gottolovethisweather]

Judging by UKMO forecast regional animations and also the BBC forecasts, the overall consensus is different to that being offered up in here and I don't quite see why that is the case that they should differ but it gives us two options. So for my patch for instance, the key time period to look for those first signs of anything brewing are from 8pm onwards with it having pretty much moved North outside of my region (Central Southern England) by midnight. This same timeframe seemingly applies from what I've seen for parts SW England and Wales for example with the overnight period from midnight to 6am being the timeframe for the strongest storms, occurring in from the North Midlands up towards Scotland.

 

All the above is taken from my analysis of the media forecasts and those predictions currently showing up from UKMO. As ever, there will be many areas which will obviously miss the best/worst of the action and again some surprises for those NOT thought to be in any given risk area.

 

Above all else enjoy it and take care out there if chasing. 

Edited July 3, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[sparky1972]

That will change as the night goes on. Humidity will increase and the temp will hold up, not forecast to go any lower lol.

As it is elevated development, surface Easterlies here won't matter.

I remember June 28th 2005 had a strong easterly develop like now, and what was delivered that night was truly marvellous!

here is hoping you are right, just does not feel right at the mo, lol. but whatever happens its all the fun of the chase.

[alibabba]

_{temp- has dropped to 17 her in skeggy and feeling chilly and breezy not at all muggy as it was earlier ?}

Edited July 3, 2015 by alibabba

[Methuselah]

What do the hashed lines in the black area represent, Paul?

Lincolnshire?

[ChezWeather]

Possible area of wind convergence over the east midlands / North of London?

Edited July 3, 2015 by ChezWeather

[weatherobsuk]

Is it me or do the models show a continual dry-slot between the west and east?