Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[NUT]

Got a sincere doubt that we bonnie wee souls up here will have the lightning of early thursday maybe heavy rain at the very least but one thing is certain the heat is going and soon

[Paul]

Well that's an extra forum server online, have a feeling it's going to get busy this evening!

[AWD]

Looks very poor on latest gfs for western areas i think heading east is a safer option at this stage i think oxford is going to be a good place to start.

Agree.

Somewhere around the solent will probably be the first recipients of interest.

My confidence for any interest IMBY is very low. I think future forecast may start to show an eastward alteration soon.

The estofex forecast I saw earlier was more likely, pretty good they are too.

[The PIT]

Well the big clue generally with anaprop is that it doesn't generally move. I remember one person who didn't understand this as a weak band of showery snow moved much further north than predicted. Got quite abusive although the snow on the car in the morning proved they were a dipstick. I guess it was alos the first time anaprop moved a hundred plus miles.

Back on subject you can see the showers appearing on V6 radar and seem bang on schedule at the moment.

High cloud moving in now so the suns almost gone here. Normally a killer for storms but with forcing convergence in play as well I wouldn't worry about it too much.

[Biggin]

what time are these due in from france? Im watching the lightning radar and nothing in france yet, i know im not technical AT ALL but just making myself aware as very scared right now. Thankyou 

Se ?? midnightish, tho that could be for rain.

[STORMGUY]

We got hazy sky at the mo with dark areas here n there.

[Gordon Webb]

12z UKMO (meso) looks interesting, at 21z it develops a line of convective precip. from Abbeville (France) NW towards IoW and Hants and more widespread general rain/embedded convective activity across Midlands, West Country, Wales and Ireland. This band then intensifying and shifting N across Ireland, Wales, central England, SE England and E Anglia by midnight ... then N England, N Ireland by 3am ... then Scotland by 6am.

 

Pretty similar to what the Netwx model charts Paul posted earlier was showing.

 

let me get this right are you saying the rain over midlands will be less convective with less thunder activity just more general rain not saying none just less and the more from this down to the south

 

it develops a line of convective precip. from Abbeville (France) NW towards IoW

[elfinpunk]

The current sky over Weston Bay to my west. Is this small mammatus or Undulatus? X

[Gordon Webb]

Agree.

Somewhere around the solent will probably be the first recipients of interest.

My confidence for any interest IMBY is very low. I think future forecast may start to show an eastward alteration soon.

The estofex forecast I saw earlier was more likely, pretty good they are too.

 

lets hope it's east of me maybe a couple of light years should be sufficient

[Methuselah]

Certainly not. It's unstable!

So am I!  

[Chris.R]

For all you iOS users out there like me, Here is an app that gives push notifications with the distance and bearing of nearby lightning strikes. I find this very useful personally, and it's the only app that has this Capability I have found, at least for iOS. Unfortunately the data isn't real time, but instead you get a notification around every 20 minutes, but still.

It utilises the Blitzortung data.

Burzowo - lightning map by Jakub Furman

https://appsto.re/gb/giI96.i

[William Grimsley]

I've just read a few posts recently about west not being best which when I logged on here earlier was totally the other way around. Have I really got a risk tonight? The NMM seems to think so. It's defenitely building out there...

[Panayiotis]

The current sky over Weston Bay to my west. Is this small mammatus or Undulatus? X

I can see this to my SE, looks interesting....undulatus

[Dale Hay]

The current sky over Weston Bay to my west. Is this small mammatus or Undulatus? X

I've just this second took a picture of the same thing - I'm still not too familiar with cloud names, although I'm just naming this slightly-wavey-lumpy-bumpy ones.

[ChezWeather]

Quote from Paul over at TORRO, no forecast released yet from them.

 

"Best forcing out west, best instability further south and east. I think a mass of showery rain/thunderstorms will evolve towards the south-west later on, and then move bodily north-northeast. Areas on the eastern side of this will have the highest chance of thunder, with areas further west seeing little instability due to the rain further east. More isolated development is possible from central southern England NNE'wards, with the highest chance of severe weather on the eastern side of any larger scale development. SE England seems to have the lowest chance, but having said that some models break out stuff over N France and move it in!"

 

Im agreeing with some previous posts and forecasts and saying that i think the best area of storms tonight will be Oxford Northwards toward the Wash and into Lincolnshire. 

Edited July 3, 2015 by ChezWeather

[pookie1989]

Se ?? midnightish, tho that could be for rain.

no im in Shropshire, really hate storms but still interested and preparing myself

[Supacell]

My current plan is to stay put as I look to be well placed for the main band moving from the southwest later. However, because anything that breaks out further east will likely have a higher chance of being severe I am all set to drive east using the A52 from Derby should this happen. I am aware of the potential for something to develop around Hampshire and move NE towards Lincolnshire.... this would have to cross the A52 to make this track.

 

That is my plan for now, could be different by 6pm

[UKSupercell]

So when is it expected to kick off, guys? Around 9-10pm? 

I've been watering my neighbours garden this week typically around 8pm and it takes around one hour to do all the plant pots, and fruit/vegetable beds. Is it worth it tonight or is rain pretty much guaranteed in Bucks? 

[thunderhead 2005]

Quote from Paul over at TORRO, no forecast released yet from them.

 

"Best forcing out west, best instability further south and east. I think a mass of showery rain/thunderstorms will evolve towards the south-west later on, and then move bodily north-northeast. Areas on the eastern side of this will have the highest chance of thunder, with areas further west seeing little instability due to the rain further east. More isolated development is possible from central southern England NNE'wards, with the highest chance of severe weather on the eastern side of any larger scale development. SE England seems to have the lowest chance, but having said that some models break out stuff over N France and move it in!"

 

Nice andover is in the center

 

Things should start anytime in the next 2 hrs

Edited July 3, 2015 by thunderhead 2005

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Me later...

[STORMGUY]

sorry shouldn't had posted that. my apologies 

Edited July 3, 2015 by STORMGUY

[Harry]

This is the latest UKMO projects...first snapshot, 2200, second short, 0100.....LOL!!!! 

 

 

That's explosive development

[Evening thunder]

For all you iOS users out there like me, Here is an app that gives push notifications with the distance and bearing of nearby lightning strikes. I find this very useful personally, and it's the only app that has this Capability I have found, at least for iOS. Unfortunately the data isn't real time, but instead you get a notification around every 20 minutes, but still.

It utilises the Blitzortung data.

Burzowo - lightning map by Jakub Furman

https://appsto.re/gb/giI96.i

Not sure how long it been available for iOS but quite recently I downloaded the app called Blitzortunglive onto my iPhone and that does use live data, you can set a radius around a point by pressing and holding the map for a second, and it sends push notifications/alerts when lightning occurs. It also has a countdown till the next thunder, but don't have experience with it yet

[Paul90]

Looks very poor on latest gfs for western areas i think heading east is a safer option at this stage i think oxford is going to be a good place to start.

 

[thunderhead 2005]

im off to a bbq soon, so ill be keeping an eye on the sky.

 

got 2 apps so i can check. cmon bring back 90's storm, best lightning and booming thunder.