Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[jmatt81]

Met Office could make much better use of things like twitter IMO, if a strong supercell is moving towards a location and it is dropping large hail then a warning would be warranted. 

 

Obviously folk on here would not need this because most of us would be watching the radar and hoping that the storm veers towards our location, but the general public would benefit from being informed as the storm is happening, rather than being informed based on a prediction. 

 

 

 

In the US this is used extensively but they have regional/local weather offices each with their own twitter feeds and they issue weather warnings when they feel it is warranted. This would not work in the UK. We don't have severe weather on that kind of frequency.

 

The best alternative is for the BBC Weather App and the MetO App to have push notifications based on the phone's GPS which would warn someone if severe weather is approaching and what precautions to take.

[BA Baracus]

Interesting map, I've never been under a large scrotum warning IMBY before!

I'll fetch me coat...lol

 

 

You know, until the comments on here, I didn't realise what I had drawn.... ooops!  Was just trying to point out that these areas of west and south yorks always seem to be a killer for storms.

[Mesoscale]

Here is my prediction for later....

[Neilsouth]

Not much chance of storms here with this weather at the moment!

 

It's blowing a cool breeze and it's also hazy, doesn't feel humid at all

[tomp456]

Here is my prediction for later....

That's mine too lol 

[Mokidugway]

Need a helmet up north!!!

if we all chase we could meatus up :0....

[pad199207]

View to my South here in Ireland. Maybe a bite of the cherry here tonight after all the drooling I did watching Britain get bombarded on Wednesday!

View to my South currently. Acas clouds is it?

[Jason H]

Those moaning about the current conditions need to look at the bigger picture. Just because it's clouded over and breezy, doesn't mean there's not going to be a storm later. It's never that simple. Many thanks

Edited July 3, 2015 by Jason H

[Nick F]

Shortwave trough moving NE to engage the plume backing NW late quite evident as the dark stripe on recent water vapour imagery to the SW of the UK.

 

 

To add another model into the hat, 06z HIRLAM precip charts look interesting, particularly 00z onwards, looks like an MCS develops over SE England before tracking N across Cambs and out across the Wash Lincs into the N Sea. Another MCS perhaps developing over Wales and moving N across NW England and eventually Scotland:

 

00z

 

03z

 

06z

 

Rather unstable 'loaded gun' atmosphere over Nern France on the 12z Trappes (Paris) radiosonde ascent, with close to 1900 j/kg CAPE sampled which is advecting our way later ... however, well capped atm, with warm dry layers (EML) between 750-850mb. But hopefully the cap will be eroded as the shortwave arrives from the SW and heights generally fall.

 

 

Netweather convective/storm outlook: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Edited July 3, 2015 by Nick F

[Harry]

Not much chance of storms here with this weather at the moment!

 

It's blowing a cool breeze and it's also hazy, doesn't feel humid at all

 

Did start to feel more humid to me earlier (not significantly mind). But, note that the humidity is not due to arrive until later on - so in short, in won't feel that humid yet. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Not much chance of storms here with this weather at the moment!

 

It's blowing a cool breeze and it's also hazy, doesn't feel humid at all

Few hours yet before the first bits of fuel start happening. To note also, I'm sure this is taking place in the mid levels predominantly, so the breeze at the surface should play a very minute role if any at all in the development process.

[TheToastPeople]

I really wouldn't underestimate this setup, im getting rather excited already! Off to work now till 9, then will fuel up and head wherever the clouds take me. Good luck everyone and be safe!

[Neilsouth]

Did start to feel more humid to me earlier (not significantly mind). But, note that the humidity is not due to arrive until later on - so in short, in won't feel that humid yet. 

 

I hope you're right, just checked the current temps and it looks to be only 21/22 at Manston?

 

Brr

[Gordon Webb]

latest news 24 forecast had all this rain/storms moving into Northern England between 1 and 2 am so not hanging around and into scotland by about 5am

[WillinGlossop]

22c very strong wind in swalecliffe near whitstable.... Going to jojos tapas restaurant in tankerton overlooking the sea.... Looking forward to good lightening display.... Clouding up a little....

[johnholmes]

 

 

Excellent post as always from Nick F - storm fans do read it 

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks like the West Midlands could end up in a dry slot again going by Nicks post.

Edited July 3, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[Paul]

Surely as Chezweather says Twatter could be an option for the rare occurences from reports of people downstream getting affected, would not cost anything to set up either, wanna set up an App ? Lol

 

It's already available on the Netweather radar & storm radar apps - allows people to report whether using hashtags (#ukstorms is the one for storms), those reports (if they have either a partial postcode or are geo-tagged) are plotted onto the radar map as markers, which are clickable to open up and read the tweet. 

 

To view the report markers, it's a case of switching on the social radar (or social view in the apps), and they'll update every few minutes with any new reports which come in. 

 

Radar:

http://www.netweather.tv/radar

 

Apps:

Android - https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.netweather.stormradar&hl=en_GB

iOS - https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/netweather-storm-radar/id976072666?mt=8 (this one is new so may crash on some devices - a new update is waiting for review currently)

[NL]

I hope you're right, just checked the current temps and it looks to be only 21/22 at Manston?

 

Brr

It was only 16℃ on the coast with an onshore breeze here when the storms arrived on Wednesday with very little feeling of humidity but the storms arrived and jeez what a display. So don't be downhearted at the moment because when/if the cap is broken the development will be explosive..Keep watching satellite images and the radar.

[Biggin]

22c very strong wind in swalecliffe near whitstable.... Going to jojos tapas restaurant in tankerton overlooking the sea.... Looking forward to good lightening display.... Clouding up a little....

lightening ?? Grrr

 

Heathrow hovering between 26 and 27

[PolarWarsaw]

Looks like the West Midlands could end up in a dry slot again going by Nicks post.

Yep. Mentioned this many times. Don't expect rain later it could all skirt us either side.

[Mokidugway]

24c and high level cloud starting to apear ,going to be an interesting 12 hours or so ..

[Nick123]

Chances for IOW anyone?

[Dami]

feels much warmer, breeze has dropped, high level cloud coming into play.

[Paul]

As promised, here's the re-run of the 6z on our NetWx-SR model, using the physics which has in the past been excellent in storm situations.

 

Erm, quite lively......