South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...

[chris55]

This sinking sliding front will be interesting to watch as we head through the next 24 hours. Shift the whole lot slightly further west and parts of our region could well get some snow. 

Considering the forecast track has changed numerous times over the past 24 hours I'd say the exact track will be a now casting type event.

also the further west it can stay could have a knock on effect re Monday's front.

 

[karlos1983]

At the moment the majority of our region looks like missing out tonight and into the new week. Purely from looking at the models this morning that is, we just seem to be the wrong side of marginal. The models are finally starting to agree with each other now within a semi reliable timeframe, so I would be pretty surprised to see them moving it all back west, but there is a chance. Perhaps if Ian nips in he might give the MO view.

nice hard frost though this morning. 

Edited January 16, 2016 by karlos1983

[Frosty hollows]

-3.2C.Cold and clear. Perfect for a walk to the gym lol

[Nights King]

59 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

At the moment the majority of our region looks like missing out tonight and into the new week. Purely from looking at the models this morning that is, we just seem to be the wrong side of marginal. The models are finally starting to agree with each other now within a semi reliable timeframe, so I would be pretty surprised to see them moving it all back west, but there is a chance. Perhaps if Ian nips in he might give the MO view.

nice hard frost though this morning. 

Happens every single time but lets see what today's 12z brings first.

-3.5c

Edited January 16, 2016 by Nights King

[kumquat]

-0.2c here next to the sub-tropical and balmy River Frome. Beautiful morning out there.

[lettice]

0.2c here today, nice light frost
A low of -0.1c at 7.15am
Temp started dropping about 4pm yesterday when it was 6c
Light NNW wind, 1029.9 hPa

[kumquat]

Most models seem miles off vs reality even as close in as T+12 so I'll not be putting much stock in their ppn charts. Seems to me the precipitation is much further East and South than projected:

NMM 0Z for 9am:

Euro 4 for midday:

(closer to reality)

We have a yellow weather warning at the Met Office for primarily ice but also the possibility of snow down to the south coast today, so lets hope for just a few flakes of the white nectar.

 

 

Edited January 16, 2016 by kumquat

[Nights King]

3 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Most models seem miles off vs reality even as close in as T+12 so I'll not be putting much stock in their ppn charts. Seems to me the precipitation is much further East and South than projected:

 

 

Tweet from ian suggesting snow more likely north east of gloc and wilts.  I presume they thinking Cotswolds etc.

Looked much better yesterday.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

1 minute ago, Nights King said:

 

Tweet from ian suggesting snow more likely north east of gloc and wilts.  I presume they thinking Cotswolds etc.

Looked much better yesterday.

I think it's definitely a now cast scenario . As always any hight will help . I also think intensity will play a part . If we manage to hold on the heavier stuff ie like at the minute it looks very organised.  But then with uppers between -3/5 for most of us then a wider area may see snow?  I think this front and tomorrow's front is gonna grind to a halt or in tomorrow's case actually move west again . It's a fascinating period because we already see the models not only underestimating the block but also providing more trough disruption. So who knows . . . . !

[Ali1977]

Lers hope the next run moves tonight's precip west a bit so more of us get a chance of the white stuff!!!

[kumquat]

Other parameters not conducive for snow when the ppn does arrive:

ppn at 9pm

Does look further North and East, agreeing with Fergie's tweets.

850s down to -2 for most of area once it arrives:

 

Dew points anywhere from +1 to +5

Good job I'm going for a curry tonight. I'll be able to create my own micro-climate. And it won't be cool!

 

 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Other parameters not conducive for snow when the ppn does arrive:

ppn at 9pm

Does look further North and East, agreeing with Fergie's tweets.

850s down to -2 for most of area once it arrives:

 

Dew points anywhere from +1 to +5

Good job I'm going for a curry tonight. I'll be able to create my own micro-climate. And it won't be cool!

 

 

Swindon could be in the firing line there, fingers crossed temps are right for it to fall.

[stratty]

25 minutes ago, Nights King said:

 

Tweet from ian suggesting snow more likely north east of gloc and wilts.  I presume they thinking Cotswolds etc.

Looked much better yesterday.

...could also mean Scandinavia?!!!  

[ThundersnowDays]

First good frost in a while here.

-3.C

[Gibby]

For those who dare not tread in the Model Output thread here's your own copy of my report this morning being as things are a little interesting at the moment although I think most of the action may be just to the East of us. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY JAN 16TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A cold ridge of High pressure across the UK will give way to a frontal wave depression sliding SE from the NW of Scotland down across NW England the Midlands and SE England tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is uncertain for the next few days ranging from 2000ft or 500mtrs in the East rising to as much as 4000ft or 1000mtrs over the West and SW at times from tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Very Cold and frosty with the chance of snow for a time next week then probably becoming less cold for all with some rain in the North by the end of the week.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The movement of the Jet Stream longer term is very uncertain this morning though currently the message is that the flow moving South across the UK in the coming days will become weak and ill defined later next week as far as the U is concerned before it blows more West to East across the UK for a time thereafter though details are very uncertain.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very mixed pattern with the general message out of a very much more complex pattern being that Low pressure disrupting near the UK could bring rain and some snow in raw cold conditions early next week before some resurgence of cold High pressure from midweek brings fog and frost before milder air moves NE across most parts and continues off and on thereafter with fronts crossing at times though with colder High pressure never that far away to the East and South.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run longer term message is for very much milder and windy weather longer term as the Atlantic bandwagon of wind and rain resets to the North and West of the UK. in the short term details still look quite elusive but the cold air looks to be proved stubborn to move for much of next week with troughs running into cold air delivering a mix of rain, sleet and some snow before the milder air pummels through by the end of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a period of trough disruption across the UK as fronts edge NE across the UK early next the week before High pressure rebuilds midweek and then slides away SE late on in the run. Rain, sleet and snow would move across the UK early in the week before cold and frosty and perhaps foggy weather develops for a time finishing the week with milder SW winds affecting the North and West unlikely to reach the SE until next weekend. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show the difficult battle between cold air across the UK and warmer Atlantic winds with a messy mixture of troughs delivering some rain and snow to Western and Central areas early in the week with the cold air winning back any territory lost as High pressure rebuilds close to the NE of the UK midweek.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows the same messy mix of weather next week as repeated attempts by milder air to the SW of the UK interacts with the colder air over the UK and NW Europe. Eventually the North and West sees the mild air win out later next week and elsewhere over next weekend. Through the week though the raw weather is shown to deliver some rain, sleet or snow in places.

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the theme of much of the output this morning with the battle between milder winds from the Atlantic hitting the cold air across the UK with some rain and snow for some before High pressure builds into the UK for a time later next week before milder Atlantic winds make a more concerted push across the North and west by the end of next week and elsewhere eventually though High pressure remains close by just to the SE at the end of the period.

ECM ECM today shows very slow progress in dispersing the cold air across the UK next week with a couple of attempts shown on this morning's run each failing with rain and snow for some for a time. The power of the Atlantic does overwhelm the High pressure block formed to the NE midweek later as the High is pushed to the SE and SW winds along with the Jet stream realigns across the North with rain at times to the North and West at least in milder air for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart has Low pressure in it's natural habitat near Iceland with High pressure to the South and SE with the Jet flow across Northern Britain meaning we are likely to see less cold and wetter conditions with rain at times in the North and West especially with the driest weather in the East and South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models all show mild air eventually with an agreed delay of the onset of this now until later next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.6 pts to UKMO at 87.9 pts then GFS at 87.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.0 pts over GFS's 63.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.6 pts to 45.6 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   Finally today we do appear to have gained some common ground between the output today as the general message is for the current cold snap to hang around for a while longer with messy attempts of milder air to come into the UK from the SW next week largely failing away from the SW itself. In fact there is also common ground today to develop High pressure close to the NE of the UK by the middle of the week pushing back any push from the Atlantic then and returning frost and freezing fog patches for many for a time. Equally we have good support that this High will more easily slip away SE across Europe late in the week opening the door to a resurgence of the Jet stream on a much more Northerly track and SW winds, first for the North and West and eventually for all. The change to milder weather looks quickest in the North and West where some rain at times becomes likely while the South and East stay drier and still a little cool at times as on most output High pressure stays quite close to the South and East. While the above sentiments do express the most likely outcome painted by the models this morning day to day differences especially early in the period are still likely as the remnants of ex hurricane Alex in the Western Atlantic muddies the waters with the progress East of any mild weather still very uncertain. This of course is crucial in determining who has snow and who has rain as each push of milder air attempts to cross Britain but if I had to pin anywhere to have a god chance of snow from Sunday to Wednesday I would say the Midlands and the SE could be the sweet spot but of course that is open to change. So finally while snowy armageddon is unlikely from this morning's output some areas are going to see some meaningful snow soon and while the end result looks like returning the milder Atlantic winds late next week there is still a lot of water to cross under the bridge before we arrive at next weekends solutions we can only hope that the models remain to progressive in the dispersal of the cold block.  

Next Update Sunday January 17th 2016 from 09:00 

[MidnightSnow]

About to go for a walk with the mrs, it's still nice and frosty. If we can't have snow, this is definitely the next best thing.

Although not looking forward to seeing all the snowy pictures in the midlands later on   All hopes on some upgrades for early next week. 

[John88B]

Morning all. A lovely frosty, sunny morning here with temp still just below freezing. Hoping for some of the white stuff tonight but it looks as if the snow will be a touch further to the North and East. Still keeping my fingers crossed for it all to shift a bit to the West.

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Looks like the cold spell is coming to an end for most of us yet again then! What I'd give for a westwards correction on tonights snow lol. I'm considering a red warning for Wales and the SW hot off the press for the viewers of the MOD thread 

[Catacol]

Lovely morning here in Somerset too... but I have the dull sinking feeling that the coming week is not going to deliver. The snow tonight is too far to the NW.... and then the slider scenario into next week looks like it will push too much mild air across Devon/Somerset for any white stuff away from elevation. The trough hasnt quite dug far enough west, and there wont be enough of a SE component to the wind to force drier air into the mix as systems start to slide. I think it will rain here. :-(

All rather disappointing though there is time for winter to deliver still. The current northerly pattern looks set to fade by week's end and then we are looking for the next surge of amplified heights. Next time we need them slightly further west, and ideally at higher latitude so that we stand a better chance of continental air getting in on the act.

So - time to sit back and watch the news reports of other parts enjoying their snow. Nowt last year, March 13 didnt deliver a flake here either. If summer traffic jams dont force me to leave the SW in the future, then the damned lack of winter synoptics on a regular basis will!

Edited January 16, 2016 by Catacol

[offerman]

Listen Everyone,

Don't forget, look  at the direction that this is all coming from yet again from the north-west .  It will probably fizzle out over the Welsh mountains .  So even if it is raining then we probably won't get any either.  Unless milder weather with rain makes across easier from Wales rather than snow showers which always fizzle out and never hit us from the north-west . 

 

 Loads of people on here recently make predictions when we were under a weather warning for snow that it would not reach us due to the Welsh mountains and everyone was proved right  and the yellow weather warning that we were slap bang in the middle of didn't come to fruition. 

[kumquat]

Precipitation seems well ahead of the latest modelling. Well into north Wales and staying further west than progged. Very much a nowcast situation and radar watch, although I fear marginality will creep in for our neck of the woods unless you are somewhere high up like Mullender's little hill.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Precipitation seems well ahead of the latest modelling. Well into north Wales and staying further west than progged. Very much a nowcast situation and radar watch, although I fear marginality will creep in for our neck of the woods unless you are somewhere high up like Mullender's little hill.

I hope your right, let's hope the block holds pushing moisture and colder temps westwards later today

[MidnightSnow]

About Monday.. isn't there a good chance that the front will correct westwards as it gets closer to the day? I'm only going by what more experienced people have said on this forum.. I think Nights King mentioned it the other day.

Maybe I'm clutching at straws but if that is the case, wouldn't that put us in a good position? 

[karlos1983]

Does seem to be having troubles getting to Far East which is causing a lot of the precip to be further south perhaps. 

Edited January 16, 2016 by karlos1983

[MidnightSnow]