Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[Fozfoster]

3 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Yes, but sometimes they do verify and that is The Chase.

Yes I agree but this years chase is for marathon runners ;-). 

[snowangel32]

18z flip back to snow risk on Wednesday into Thursday, I think it will be Monday before this is decided we can't take individual runs seriously as the 18z has shown us. Somewhere will be the sweetspot that's for sure but where is unknown. 

spot the difference lol.

 

[kent]

7 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

18z flip back to snow risk on Wednesday into Thursday, I think it will be Monday before this is decided we can't take individual runs seriously as the 18z has shown us. Somewhere will be the sweetspot that's for sure but where is unknown. 

spot the difference lol.

 

My guess is the Canary islands lol.

[kumquat]

All of us who've been here a while know the masochism of chart chasing in UK winters.

Just a sniff out at 240+ will do us. We can't help it. It's an addiction.

It's what made this forum and the BBC before it.

In the words of BSG

"All this has happened before, and all of it will happen again."

The best stuff is only a day away.

Surprise surprise....

Battle line drawn...Front approaching the south west. Take your stands and READY!!!

Edited February 12, 2016 by kumquat

[karyo]

East of Scotland is the place to be this weekend. In fact the 18z gfs shows snows showers of good intensity moving from Edinburgh to Glasgow tomorrow afternoon therefore affecting highly populated areas. Northeast England also getting some snow showers from time to time this weekend. 

[snowray]

Don't look too shabby. Scandi high back, cold air hanging on in the SE?

Much depends on that high pressure in the Central Med, what used to be referred to as a Genoa Low, we want it to deepen as much as possible and move NE, so that the High is propped up and colder uppers are dragged back Westwards.

Edited February 12, 2016 by snowray

[Singularity]

Still room for falling snow to fall against the odds across the far south this weekend according to AROME but this really is circumstantial; the low is deep enough that cold air is drawn from the NE at a good clip, but this also means so much of a flow off the eastern Channel/southern North Sea that the colder air is modified to wrong side of marginal across the SE, leaving only a 'wedge' of sufficiently cold air across central parts to deliver snowfall.

It's the sort of thing you need a very high resolution model to capture, but the depth and track of the low are still uncertain enough that this can only be considered an interesting possibility at this stage. If it's showing this time tomorrow, I'll be sitting up more.

[JP1972]

Sorry to be a whinge, but the NIMBY bias in this thread has been a little bit OTT at times recently.

Although this post is off topic and will be removed (fair enough), I'd like to see people giving more UK wide views on what the models are showing rather than where a slider etc may deliver snow in the South East. For instance, snow showers affecting which areas?

Thank you.

[nick sussex]

Well at least the GFS 18hrs run stops the slide! After a fall from grace on the 12hrs run this has some better trough disruption and consequently a better chance for snow.

I'm not sure about a second slider, much depends on the ridge to the ne forcing that second round of trough disruption and the cold not mixing out.

Anyway at least the evening finished on a slightly better note for snow lovers after an up and down day.

 

 

[karyo]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Well at least the GFS 18hrs run stops the slide! After a fall from grace on the 12hrs run this has some better trough disruption and consequently a better chance for snow.

I'm not sure about a second slider, much depends on the ridge to the ne forcing that second round of trough disruption and the cold not mixing out.

Anyway at least the evening finished on a slightly better note for snow lovers after an up and down day.

 

 

Yes, all is not lost.

Any news from the mjo today? 

[Nath]

44 minutes ago, snowray said:

Don't look too shabby. Scandi high back, cold air hanging on in the SE?

Much depends on that high pressure in the Central Med, what used to be referred to as a Genoa Low, we want it to deepen as much as possible and move NE, so that the High is propped up and colder uppers are dragged back Westwards.

That is a bloomin long weather front !!!

[snowray]

With all due respect JP, are you suggesting that the SE should simply not get a mention on this thread then, if it is mentioned it seems to me that some posters get quite upset.

 

Have you not noticed these charts that have been posted? Come on it shows most of the country doing very well, particularly your location in the NE... apart from the South, which quite frankly misses out a lot of the time when it comes to the white stuff. 

 

Would you not agree that a Nationwide snow event would be a good outcome for all of us, or do you think that snow lovers in Southern England should just shut up and quietly suffer.

[Nouska]

The AROME did a very good job in forecasting today's intense precipitation on home turf - I've yet to see whether it is as good for marginal snow situations. Here's the 18Z close up of the one posted above; still a bit of wintry precip showing for your area, James.

Source :-                http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/arome.php?ech=3&mode=142&map=31

 

[snowray]

Arpege going for quite a Wintry mix tomorrow, high ground in South Wales and Dartmoor looking good for a covering maybe above about say 200m.

[nick sussex]

13 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yes, all is not lost.

Any news from the mjo today?

The MJO still moving through the phases. The big question is whether it can survive into a decent amplitude phase 8:

 

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The MJO still moving through the phases. The big question is whether it can survive into a decent amplitude phase 8:

 

Thanks, good to see that none of the models taking it to the circle of death anymore 

[Mildcarlisle]

3 hours ago, snowray said:

Don't look too shabby. Scandi high back, cold air hanging on in the SE?

Much depends on that high pressure in the Central Med, what used to be referred to as a Genoa Low, we want it to deepen as much as possible and move NE, so that the High is propped up and colder uppers are dragged back Westwards.

And in my experience,that chart screams of game over for cold.It is progress from the west.Move on another 12hrs and we all return to what we call seasonal weather likes.

[January Snowstorm]

It's hard to see where any proper cold will come from between now and end of February. Looks like the ecm had the right call letting the atlantic in so swiftly. Just look at how strong that azores high is mid next week. It's been a very stubborn feature throughout (indeed the last 3 winters not just this one)

Cold week coming up though with at least some transient snow (for some)

Edited February 13, 2016 by January Snowstorm

[Ben Lewis]

I expect the models to rid of any potential snow for England next week during this weekends runs. 

Edited February 13, 2016 by Paul
Removed the off topic bit - there are threads for the meto output / bbc forecasts etc :-)

[winterof79]

The MET medium range update states a band of rain/snow weakening as it moves into the S/E.

Seems reasonable at this stage.

[Man With Beard]

Little change this morning - the dodgy front for Weds/Thurs still crossing the UK, slowly but not quite a stall. ECM nearly brings cold uppers up against the front edge. Very very difficult to call at this stage except to say a front will cross the UK (or at least reach the UK) and that the cold air will probably be pushed out by Friday (surprised at the BBC saying Wednesday, don't see how they can be so confident given what we can see). 

One small change though - models have pushed the tomorrow's disturbances south faster, so frontal snow chances in the south reduced, but snow shower activity still looking good all the way up the east coast (extreme coast may be a wintry mix) - perhaps a few of these will penetrate a fair way inland.

[KTtom]

Unfortunately the trend is well and truly away from a wintry mid-week. The angle of attack is all wrong as the UKMO show below. Had the low been able to move swiftly to our north east we could have benefitted from a decent north westerly in its wake..IMHO scandi highs are as much use as a Bartlett in getting snow to the UK in recent years.

 

[nick sussex]

Just when you think the models can't dish out yet more disappointment for snow lovers they do.

It sums up the winter in general whereby even when the models might deliver something within the normally reliable T120hrs timeframe they still find a way to backtrack on that.

This morning the mid-week snow looks less likely, not enough trough disruption and this mixes out most of the cold ahead of the precip.

The ECM forms a shortwave low but most of the cold has already been pushed east by then, if the pattern was further west this would help keep the cold in place and increase snow chances.

Although you've got some PM air following on from the nw the lower dew points are likely to be over mainland Europe and you want this drawn in ahead of the precip.

Looking at the ECM postage stamps theres still a mix of solutions in terms of trough disruption over the UK:

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2016021300!!/

Not much time to play with so if theres to be any last minute reprieve it needs to happen today!

 

 

Edited February 13, 2016 by nick sussex

[Summer Sun]

Turning rather mild once more next weekend on this run from GFS the north does turn cooler on the Sunday but the milder air soon returns to all but Scotland where the colder air hangs on

[Jeremy Shockey]

Plenty of snow showers down the NE coasts over the weekend. Looks good for Sunday night with some good penetration inland too.