South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 18th February onwards

[seaside 60]

7c but feels warmer, fresh SSW winds and damp.

[TROY]

What a mild start to March, a dizzy 9C. thats 48F. feels springlike, but overcast and damp, with drizzly bits in a stiff s.w. Wind. I Was surprised how much the garden has dried out in the last week, due to the spring sunshine. Have a super day.

 

[seaside 60]

The soil was lovely to work with over the last couple of days.
Far better than the solid wet mess it is when we have constant south westerlies.
Main rain just about to arrive.

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, TROY said:

What a mild start to March, a dizzy 9C. thats 48F. feels springlike, but overcast and damp, with drizzly bits in a stiff s.w. Wind. I Was surprised how much the garden has dried out in the last week, due to the spring sunshine. Have a super day.

 

Far from springlike garden is saturated like the Somme! 

Could you please provide your location via your profile settings, thanks

 

[Daniel*]

HIRLAM model funnily gives northern Home Counties heavy disruptive snowfall. (In isolation). 

[TROY]

47 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Far from springlike garden is saturated like the Somme! 

Could you please provide your location via your profile settings, thanks

 

Hi well it was fairly dry yesterday, the cold wind of the last few days helped dry everything out, bit damp now tho with moderate rain, Bar 1009 and falling. Location East Sussex 63 m above sea level .

[crazysnowcatz4]

While it is the more unreliable member of the family the 6z GFS shows a possibility of a sleety event tomorrow. Perhaps in the morning favouring the western and central edge of  the region but with a westerly flow this seems unlikely . Just perhaps the far SE could prove cold enough tomorrow evening for the rain to turn to snow and perhaps be more prolonged. While I don't predict any laying snow there does seem to have been a pattern for something like this to occur for a few days now. NW UK and Wales are set for a snow event on Friday morning, and we could catch the tail end of that on Friday.

Again it will be a NW flow , which never favors the far south east . This on / off possibility of a wintery mix could continue into Sunday. Again would have been great in  January , much more marginal now but at least in a reliable time frame.

No promises and this probably is the last chance saloon. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

8 minutes ago, crazysnowcatz4 said:

While it is the more unreliable member of the family the 6z GFS shows a possibility of a sleety event tomorrow. Perhaps in the morning favouring the western and central edge of  the region but with a westerly flow this seems unlikely . Just perhaps the far SE could prove cold enough tomorrow evening for the rain to turn to snow and perhaps be more prolonged. While I don't predict any laying snow there does seem to have been a pattern for something like this to occur for a few days now. NW UK and Wales are set for a snow event on Friday morning, and we could catch the tail end of that on Friday.

Again it will be a NW flow , which never favors the far south east . This on / off possibility of a wintery mix could continue into Sunday. Again would have been great in  January , much more marginal now but at least in a reliable time frame.

No promises and this probably is the last chance saloon. 

Certainly agree, I was going to mention at the weekend some very spring like charts starting to show their faces, this more amplified this morning, even Fergie mentioning some members show some warm weather 

Edited March 1, 2016 by Surrey

[Snoopie42]

Which one will be correct........

Arome  ......                                                    Arpege .......                                   or.....   Hirlam

  

Hirlam is definitely more bullish with regard to some snow in our Region. Charts below for reference.

  

As @crazysnowcatz4 mentions, more than one opportunity for some in the region to at least experience something wintry from tomorrow through until Sunday. Therefore, Winter Weather Gods, please deliver to the poor snow starved people of the SE, just a few flakes, doesn't have to settle, just be seen falling will do, then do one! and let Spring commence....or has Autumn just finished and Winter is beginning?! I'm confused. Have a great afternoon all!

[alexisj9]

8.1 but feeling colder here, not much warmer than yesterday, were the mild weather. 

[Blessed Weather]

And a few more charts to round off the prospects for tomorrow! A couple from the Met Off from the lunchtime news today. They talked about possible disruptive snow for higher ground from the Midlands north. For our Region the temps were 3C to 4C during Weds pm (when the main precipitation moves through), so I don't think settling likely here. However, one thing looks certain, it will feel very cold tomorrow afternoon in a brisk wind! 

Met Off early pm Weds  Look East take

Euro4  mid-day   

[alexisj9]

No rain on radar for ages now, however we still have a very wet mist which if you walk out your soaked in seconds. The mist is very heavy drizzle, yuk.

[TROY]

Bit of late afternoon sunshine, feels warmer then what has been forecast, stays light a bit longer now. Sunset 5.45.

Bar 1006 steady now. Looking forward to seeing some Good Spring charts now.

[JennyJane1]

Just been outside, its calm, no breeze, warmish, certainly not cold, no rain, blueish sky, ok day.

 

If its going to snow im going to make a rice pudding for tomorrow and break out the chocolate horlicks.

[Dami]

Too warm for the hat once the rain past, and even felt over dressed with the scarf. Doesn't need to rain tomorrow, got to take bubs school project in and last time we had strong wind and rain.

let's fast forward to june/july/august. Thunderstorm watching is more fun ;0)

[crazysnowcatz4]

Met O has weather warnings for snow for almost the entire North and West and country , with only the center south not covered.

They don't go for snow, anywhere in our region atm. GFS still goes for outside chance of snow Wed evening, early Thursday possibly very localised.  The increased chance comes Friday over the weekend  still ,favouring more North and Westerly regions. Really we need to wait 24 hours and see how equivalent models compare and how they perform tomorrow.

[JennyJane1]

I think we might see something exciting later in the year, exciting and unusual, like when I saw it snow in June nearly fifty years ago, anyone else remember that? It was a proper blizzard.

[Daniel*]

I think GFS is on the sherry, I'm not quite seeing it with freezing level at 600m for 1200 nonetheless Wednesday snow risk has been bolstered for the region I believe. 

[fine wine]

Turner very mild between 2pm and 4pm hitting 13c with blue skies. Much milder and spring like once the rain cleared than I thought.

[Snoopie42]

1 hour ago, Dami said:

Too warm for the hat once the rain past, and even felt over dressed with the scarf. Doesn't need to rain tomorrow, got to take bubs school project in and last time we had strong wind and rain.

let's fast forward to june/july/august. Thunderstorm watching is more fun ;0)

Sorry, not weather related, however, was Bub's project the " story box", if so I had the pleasure of assisting building one all weekend! Dinosaurs Love Underpants! Safely delivered today! 

[alexisj9]

Today's high was 8.9 now going down very slowly, currently 8.2. Where are those double digit temps forecast for today. Was looking forward to them. 

[Captain Shortwave]

So tomorrow

 

   

I mentioned this on the model thread but here are the FAX charts to back it up.

So we will see a secondary low move through the region during the first part of the afternoon, this will bring organised bands of precipitation, this could be heavy and wintry with snow falling at low levels at times.

Overnight we will see a disturbance move down the north sea in cold air, again the risk of some heavy wintry showers with probably a higher chance of seeing snow settle so some might wake up to a surprise Thursday morning.

850s and 2m temperatures for midday tomorrow.

   

Worth noting the temperatures fall to around 2/3C as the precipitation moves through. That said the NMM doesn't look too keen on snow tomorrow afternoon (more a wintry mix), it does bring heavy snow overnight, especially for Norfolk and Suffolk.

Edited March 1, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[tinybill]

36 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

So tomorrow

 

   

I mentioned this on the model thread but here are the FAX charts to back it up.

So we will see a secondary low move through the region during the first part of the afternoon, this will bring organised bands of precipitation, this could be heavy and wintry with snow falling at low levels at times.

Overnight we will see a disturbance move down the north sea in cold air, again the risk of some heavy wintry showers with probably a higher chance of seeing snow settle so some might wake up to a surprise Thursday morning.

850s and 2m temperatures for midday tomorrow.

   

Worth noting the temperatures fall to around 2/3C as the precipitation moves through. That said the NMM doesn't look too keen on snow tomorrow afternoon (more a wintry mix), it does bring heavy snow overnight, especially for Norfolk and Suffolk.

i look forward  for that  going  to work at  5.40!!!!

[alexisj9]

Fingers crossed I see something wintery, ITV graphics had sleet showers flowed by what looked like a great big batch of snow, but didn't show what it did this far east. London looked prime for that graphic, but we all know how bad ITV graphics can be for ppn type. Looks like a nice wintry spell for a while whatever happens.

[Mark wheeler]

Waaa hoooo .latest bbc forecast I just saw said sleet and wet snow for tmrw evening . I will take that any day. My 3 year old has never even seen snow falling only lying earlier in the year from overnight dusting. I know it will come to virtually nothing but this is as exiting as it's got this winter.