June 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts

[Relativistic]

6 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Looks like happening again. Not sure why June's ending in "6" have tended towards the warm side.

I looked at the entire dataset up to the end of 2015, and found that Junes that occur in years ending in 6 are indeed more likely to be warm ones.

Mean for June, years ending in 0: 14.3
Ending in 1: 14.2
Ending in 2: 14.3
Ending in 3: 14.3
Ending in 4: 14.2
Ending in 5: 14.1
Ending in 6: 14.8
Ending in 7: 14.3
Ending in 8: 14.5
Ending in 9: 14.2

Years ending in 6 do stand out. I suppose the likes of 1846, 1976, etc. are helping to pull this figure up.

 

Also of interest:

Februaries ending in 5 also stand out, with a mean of 3.2C. The next lowest are Februaries ending in 0 or 1, both with means of 3.8C.

Only Januaries ending in 0 or 9 averaged <3C (means of 2.8C and 2.9C respectively).

Only Septembers ending in 2 or 3 averaged <13C (both 12.9C).

Only Octobers ending in 1 averaged >=10C (10.2C). The last two such Octobers, October 2001 (13.3C) and October 2011 (12.6C) lift this figure up by about 0.2C however.

Edited June 22, 2016 by Relativistic

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 13.1C while maxima looks like reaching about 21C, so an increase to 15.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

15.8C to the 23rd (17.8: +3.0)
15.8C to the 24th (17.0: +2.1)
15.8C to the 25th (15.2: -0.1)
15.8C to the 26th (15.4: +0.1)
15.8C to the 27th (15.7: +0.1)
15.8C to the 28th (15.0: -0.6)
15.8C to the 29th (15.2: -0.8)
15.7C to the 30th (13.8: -2.0)

A cool final few days may drop the CET a little, but still, a finish of between 15.5C and 16.1C looks most likely before correction.

[Summer Sun]

15.7c to the 22nd

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

15.7c to the 23rd

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 11.1C, while maxima look like being in the low 19s, so remaining on 15.7C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

15.7C to the 25th (14.5: -0.8)
15.7C to the 26th (15.6: +0.3)
15.7C to the 27th (15.8: +0.2)
15.6C to the 28th (12.9: -2.7)
15.5C to the 29th (13.6: -2.4)
15.5C to the 30th (15.0: -0.8)

A distinctly cool end to the month now forecast. A finishing range of 15.3C to 15.8C now likely before corrections.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 14.6C

[Summer Sun]

15.7c to the 24th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 10.5C, while maxima look like reaching the low 18s, so a drop to 15.6C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

15.6C to the 26th (15.6: +0.3)
15.6C to the 27th (15.5: -0.1)
15.5C to the 28th (13.2: -2.4)
15.5C to the 29th (14.6: -1.4)
15.5C to the 30th (13.6: -2.2)

At this stage, 15.4C or 15.5C looks to be the finishing point, but anything from 15.3C to 15.7C is still possible before corrections.

[Summer Sun]

15.7c to the 25th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 11.5C, while maxima look like reaching about 19C, so a drop to 15.6C (15.64) is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

15.6C to the 27th (15.4: -0.2)
15.5C to the 28th (12.9: -2.7)
15.4C to the 29th (12.9: -3.1)
15.4C to the 30th (13.3: -2.5)

The outlook is colder again, with 15.3 or 15.4C the most likely finishing point now, but with a possible range of 15.2C to 15.6C possible at this stage.

[DAVID SNOW]

The GFS, now into reliable timeframe (gone is its last week high temps, was all fantasy island anyway) and it now shows a rather cool last few days.

The CET may end up around 15.2 to 15.3 now.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14.6C

[Summer Sun]

15.6c to the 26th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Still 14.6C today if it's cold tonight there maybe a slight drop.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Blimey, I thought I had completely shot it this month with my 15.1 call. Turns out it won't be more than 0.5C out!

 

[Ravelin]

Aye, makes my 14.7C punt look a little better than it was looking for most of the month. Still not great though.

[Summer Sun]

15.6c to the 27th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

15.6c to the 28th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

It looks like we're almost certain to finish on 15.4 or 15.5C before corrections, so something from 15.0C to 15.5C after corrections.

[The PIT]

Looking like Sheffield will finish on 14.6C unless there's some surprising cold nights or warm days it isn't going to shift very much.

[The PIT]

A cooler night than forecast brought it down down 14.5C but I'm expecting today's max will be a lot higher than forecast so back up to 14.6C

[Summer Sun]

15.5c to the 29th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks like a max of 18.9C or higher will have the month at 15.4C before corrections. 

[NorthYorksWeather]

A  slightly cooler than average month here with June finishing at 13.1c 

[Chris.R]

 Like May, a warmer than average month here in this microclimate, finishing on 16.7°C.