Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[Ben Sainsbury]

Is that really a wild lightning strike in an unusual habitat nr Exeter?

Dont believe it.

Edited August 25, 2016 by Ben Sainsbury

[Harry]

5 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

Hope so!

This evening really is our last chance now.

Strike in Devon

[Thunderstruck]

1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Is that really a wild lightning strike in an unusual habitat nr Exeter?

Dont believe it.

It would appear so...

[Arnie Pie]

With a couple of heavier cells coming up the M5, into a CZ across the area.....the 62% chance from the GFS .....just may become a reality.....Fingers crossed

Edited August 25, 2016 by Arnie Pie

[Hodgheg]

Some heavier showers passing over the channel islands now. 

[Harry]

Fresh strikes appearing near the Channel Islands

[Greeny]

2 hours ago, Speedway Slider said:

How come as soon as these heavy/thundery showers that Norfolk are having, as soon as they get out to sea, they go absolute bonkers?

Science please?

 

Deleted cause info was wrong

However I got reliable confirmation that its ex-hurricane Gaston in the SLP charts. Someone described as a dartboard hehe.

Edited August 25, 2016 by Greeny

[Evening thunder]

Didn't see or hear anything from that apparent strike and at it's time of occurrence (21:34) there weren't any cells near here, just very light rain, so think it may have been false or mis-placed. 

[Speedway Slider]

A clear a straight dividing line......                rain / no rain, see netweather.. see attach 1

This has just popped on for Leicester on the Met Office App! What a laugh that is.... 

see attach 2 

[Greeny]

Totally forget my above post as I have posted charts that are a week in the future haha! Blown that theory out of the water!

[Fitzwis]

20 minutes ago, Harry said:

Fresh strikes appearing near the Channel Islands

Confirmed ... and becoming increasingly electrified ...

[Speedway Slider]

Just had a message from Met Office cancelling the heavy rain warning for my area (Leicester) What is going on with our weather!!!???

[Guest]

Torrential rain here all of a sudden.

[Dean E]

5 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

Just had a message from Met Office cancelling the heavy rain warning for my area (Leicester) What is going on with our weather!!!???

Its been broken since the early 2000s 

[Mr_ Nexus]

Judging by the warnings on the met office its going to be a tad wet over central England over the next 3 days . Still no thunder as yet .

[Mapantz]

11 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

Just had a message from Met Office cancelling the heavy rain warning for my area (Leicester) What is going on with our weather!!!???

You're still in the warning zone for tonight/tomorrow. It may have been a notification due to them changing the warning zone, adding in more parts of the southwest.

[Nick F]

5 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

Just had a message from Met Office cancelling the heavy rain warning for my area (Leicester) What is going on with our weather!!!???

Think we all understimated how deep the cap was and the lack of forcing to break it, there's been some rainfall, but from mid-upper level instability through differential thermal advection. These plume breakdowns are often notoriously difficult to forecast, or rather, I and maybe others maybe get too optimistic that something interesting will develop. Lessons learned to be more cautious when there are heavy caps in place!

Seems to be increased forcing moving up from the Channel now as per strikes over Channel isles and off Brittany, so it ain't over yet.

[Cornishdave]

I can confirm the rogue lightning strike near Exeter didn't happen, I heard a plane around this time as the rumbling lasted over a min but I'm pretty sure it was a plane not lightning, it's just been light drizzle for last couple hours, had some steady heavy rain earlier but nothing special, never mind other parts have done ok for thunder though, so those who have it enjoy It  

[Greeny]

5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Think we all understimated how deep the cap was and the lack of forcing to break it, there's been some rainfall, but from mid-upper level instability through differential thermal advection. These plume breakdowns are often notoriously difficult to forecast, or rather, I and maybe others maybe get too optimistic that something interesting will develop. Lessons learned to be more cautious when there are heavy caps in place!

Seems to be increased forcing moving up from the Channel now as per strikes over Channel isles and off Brittany, so it ain't over yet.

I think its fair enough to give what could happen if the cap would break and forcing was strong enough, if that was the case then things could have been very different and its worth making sure full potential is realised even if it doesn't actually materialise. However its not over yet as you say and I wish all good luck, I hope it happens..

Edited August 25, 2016 by Greeny

[Speedway Slider]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

You're still in the warning zone for tonight/tomorrow. It may have been a notification due to them changing the warning zone, adding in more parts of the southwest.

No, this is a fresh message, had that one earlier this evening!!

[Mapantz]

5 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

No, this is a fresh message, had that one earlier this evening!!

Have a look at the main website, the warnings have not been cancelled.

 

I'd recommend ditching that MetO app, and downloading the new one.

Here ya go:

Edited August 25, 2016 by Mapantz

[Speedway Slider]

It was from the New Met Office App, now that message has vanished!!

 

[Mesoscale]

I think lightning will be sporadic just like last night, what could have been if the cap had broken though! Maybe soon we will get a plume of yesteryear. 

[weirpig]

It's more a concern re flooding here it's been raining non stop for hours 

[Mr_ Nexus]

BBC weather just shown thunderstorms in a line from Southampton to the wash by 23.00 tonight !!

I must be living in a parallel universe ?!