Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[snowbunting]

Long range that looks a monster area of High pressure in the Atlantic. Anyone for an early spring?

[blizzard81]

Mmm, that retched Azores high determined to be mischievous again. However, Tamara seemed certain in her post earlier today that the Azores high would not scupper this one. Squeaky bum time indeed lol.

[snowbunting]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Mmm, that retched Azores high determined to be mischievous again. However, Tamara seemed certain in her post earlier today that the Azores high would not scupper this one. Squeaky bum time indeed lol.

Missed that post, now hunting for it.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, snowbunting said:

Missed that post, now hunting for it.

Was posted early afternoon if I remember right.

[Sharon Calladine]

THERES A SSW SUDDEN  STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT TAKING PLACE HIGH ABOVE THE ARCTIC IN EARTHS ATMOSPHERE THE 1ST PART OFTHIS EVENT IS IN FORCE NOW THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER SCANDINAVIA AND THIS IS DRAWING IN COLDER AIR FROM THE EAST THE PROCESS OF THE SSW IS STILL ONGOING HIGH UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE ARCTIC AS THE POLAR VORTEX IS ABOUT TO SPLIT IN TO 2 VORTEXES A PROCESS OF THE SSW EVENT THE SPLITTING OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL MAKE THE 2 VORTEXES UNSTABLE AND COLD POLAR AIR WILLAS A RESULT OF THIS INSTABILLITY PUSH COLD POLAR AIR OUTWARDS AND TO LOWER LATTITUDES AS SHOWN ON COMPUTER ATMOSPHERIC MODELS PUTS THE UK IN THE FIRING LINE IN AROUND 10 DAYS TIME BRINGING VERY COLD SNOWY WEATHER TO THE UK

[phil nw.]

Another easterly drama but at least we look like getting there=Fridays fax just out

A nice brisk cold flow established.

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, snowbunting said:

Missed that post, now hunting for it.

Here you gove love

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Caught you you naughty boy

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Caught you you naughty boy

Looks a short lived cold spell according to that, looks like the azores ridge / Greenland vortex lobe combo could mess things up again.

[Nick L]

A request when posting charts on mobile to make things easier for everyone...

Instead of taking screen shots of a chart, can we save the actual image instead please? It's a bit useless posting a chart with no indication of what model it is from, what time frame it is etc. It's easy to save a chart on mobile, simply tap and hold the image until the "save image" option comes up.

[Wilxy]

Looking through the models I have noticed that the Azores high is nudging up towards the high over Scandinavia so it terms of getting the best easterly possible we need it to stay further south so we can get a more southerly tracking Jet Stream, but its still being modeled to strengthen the Jet Stream over the top of the High so we need to be looking for trends where the tracking Low's out in the Atlantic undercut the High rather than going over the top.   

[Southender]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks a short lived cold spell according to that, looks like the azores ridge / Greenland vortex lobe combo could mess things up again.

6-7 days of temps 2-4c is not to be sniffed at?

[Mucka]

Not sure it is a "thing" yet but GFS ensembles are interesting in that several members want to sharpen up the Atlantic trough T96+ giving better amplification.

P3 and P11 are rather extremes example but it is a definitely a signal within 18z ensembles. Will it carry over to tomorrow?

Edited February 5, 2017 by Mucka

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks a short lived cold spell according to that, looks like the azores ridge / Greenland vortex lobe combo could mess things up again.

Lot of water to flow under the bridge though to draw that conclusion with any degree of certainty. Shows a possible warm up at D8. Every chance that will be pushed further out. Can be stubborn old dogs these highs.

Edited February 5, 2017 by karlos1983

[summer blizzard]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Temps of 2-4c = sleety cold rain.

Our problem is more likely to be the lack of significant precipitation. 

..

18z does attempt a northerly as suspected..

[Met4Cast]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks a short lived cold spell according to that, looks like the azores ridge / Greenland vortex lobe combo could mess things up again.

Does it? The mean stays below 5c throughout much of the run and only moves above out in FI, but there's a lot of scatter with some clustering towards milder but equally a fairly strong cluster for a continuation of cold too.

I think the only thing you can tell from that is 5-7 days of cold temperatures and that the ECM op has sat in front of a heater for the last part of it's run.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Does it? The mean stays below 5c throughout much of the run and only moves above out in FI, but there's a lot of scatter with some clustering towards milder but equally a fairly strong cluster for a continuation of cold too.

I think the only thing you can tell from that is 5-7 days of cold temperatures and that the ECM op has sat in front of a heater for the last part of it's run.

Not enough frigid runs at the end, I'm still hanging my hat on the stratosphere and a late spell into March but a lot of that depends on what happens on the generic charts between now and then.

[TEITS]

Whilst I agree the ECM Op is unlikely to be correct I would be wary of totally writing it off. Just remember the E,ly next week was often a cold outlier in the ensembles but proved correct due to the higher resolution. Remember the tweets from Ian F & MVH saying an E,ly is unlikely due to a lack of support from the ensembles. I think even the Met O at the time were forecasting mild, unsettled.

I will also say that I have many times seen posts on this thread saying the Teleconnections do not support a particular run. Yet it was the interpretation of the teleconnections that were wrong and not the model run.

The main reason I lack confidence in the ECM is because of the UKMO output rather than the ECM ensembles.

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

The mean at 180 shows the azures gets displaced back into the Atlantic with some sort of trough disruption west of the BI and a continental SE feed

[Cheshire Freeze]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not enough frigid runs at the end, I'm still hanging my hat on the stratosphere and a late spell into March but a lot of that depends on what happens on the generic charts between now and then.

Consistent as consistent can be Feb

Edited February 5, 2017 by CreweCold

[Mucka]

Trend setter

 

I'm only half joking BTW 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Trend setter

 

I'm only half joking BTW 

And goes on to produce this

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Trend setter

 

I'm only half joking BTW 

Entirely plausible. I don't think it's beyond expectations that as we get further into February we see a 'strip' of heights emerge somewhere in the corridor Greenland-Iceland-Scandi

Waiting to see the GEFS pressure anomaly mean in the days 14-16 range.

EDIT: I have good news ; )

Edited February 5, 2017 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Consistent as consistent can be Feb

I would love to see someone post the strat charts up on those, the 360 eps mean and GEFS mean heights 10 or 30mb.

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would love to see someone post the strat charts up on those, the 360 eps mean and GEFS mean heights 10 or 30mb.

Got the GEFS means at 10hpa at 312