Model tweets

[Summer Sun]

 

[knocker]

 

Edited July 10, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

 

Edited July 10, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

 

Edited July 10, 2018 by knocker

[Singularity]

22 hours ago, knocker said:

 

Yet filter out ENSO and you get this;

 

...though still with low reliability for the phase 5 response. 

Oddly enough, the source site says that phase 5 and 6 with an El Nino background have too few cases to produce a meaningful analogue. So the MJO phases aren't proving very useful for guidance at the moment (but the propagating east into the Pacific behaviour is due to how it sends AAM upward).

Intriguingly, the modelling currently resembles more of an August neutral background phase 6 response;

...but this may just be a coincidence. 

[knocker]

 

Edited July 17, 2018 by knocker

[Allseasons-Si]

 

Edited July 17, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Summer Sun]

 

[knocker]

 

Edited July 20, 2018 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

 

[knocker]

 

Edited July 22, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

 

Edited July 22, 2018 by knocker

[Weather-history]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

 

 

 

 

[knocker]

 

Edited July 25, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

 

Edited July 25, 2018 by knocker

[Singularity]

Ah so that's what's messing with the model diagnosis of the MJO! Cheers for sharing.

[Summer Sun]

 

[knocker]

 

Edited July 26, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

 

Edited July 27, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

 

Edited July 30, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

 

Edited July 31, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

 

Edited August 1, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

 

Edited August 2, 2018 by knocker