Greenland Blocking Temperatures in winter

[oasis]

A true greenland block that we haven't seen for a while, I was wondering what are the rough maximum temperatures (with Arctic temperatures at normal) you'd expect in each month of the year they happen? In, say, Manchester, roughly middle of country.  

To start, I'd guess 8-9 degrees in late October, 6 degrees in early-mid November, 2 degrees in Early December (was that the rough maxima in December 2010? And mainly ice days from mid December to Mid February?

I guess, the main point, I'm making through this, is at what point does extensive northern blocking become "useful". No longer what some would call a waste. That which will give a decent week long snow event, not a morning of wet snow like in late October 2008 (I think it was 08). Can anyone remember a week long snow event in Mid November from extensive northern blocking centred on Greenland?

 

[Met4Cast]

On 17/10/2017 at 18:13, oasis said:

A true greenland block that we haven't seen for a while, I was wondering what are the rough maximum temperatures (with Arctic temperatures at normal) you'd expect in each month of the year they happen? In, say, Manchester, roughly middle of country.  

To start, I'd guess 8-9 degrees in late October, 6 degrees in early-mid November, 2 degrees in Early December (was that the rough maxima in December 2010? And mainly ice days from mid December to Mid February?

I guess, the main point, I'm making through this, is at what point does extensive northern blocking become "useful". No longer what some would call a waste. That which will give a decent week long snow event, not a morning of wet snow like in late October 2008 (I think it was 08). Can anyone remember a week long snow event in Mid November from extensive northern blocking centred on Greenland?

 

There's no straight forward answer.

Greenland blocking could produce widespread snow in late November but also nothing in the middle of winter. It depends entirely on where the "cold" is. If the cold air has been shunted to the opposite side of the pole then there'd be no significant cold air for the block to "tap into" to to speak.

But generally speaking, mid-late November through until about mid-late March. Any earlier and the cold hasn't really become established, any later and the cold has thinned significantly as summer edges closer.

[oasis]

39 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

There's no straight forward answer.

Greenland blocking could produce widespread snow in late November but also nothing in the middle of winter. It depends entirely on where the "cold" is. If the cold air has been shunted to the opposite side of the pole then there'd be no significant cold air for the block to "tap into" to to speak.

But generally speaking, mid-late November through until about mid-late March. Any earlier and the cold hasn't really become established, any later and the cold has thinned significantly as summer edges closer.

Hmm, yes, I think I'd agree on mid late November. Late Nov 2010 was pretty awesome.

[damianslaw]

Greenland blocking in November is quite a rare feature, and it will very much depend if there is enough cold air over the Pole to tap into. Late Nov 2010 was an exceptional case.

The cold of late November 2005 however did deliver some snow and low temps to many.

Extensive northern blocking can still pack a punch in early April especially if it has been a cold winter, 2013 an exceptional case.

 

Incidentally there are signals for northern blocking to take hold during the latter part of the month, alas we also have strong heights to the SE and a trough locked in situ to our NW, which is going to try to anchor SE but come unstuck against the block to the SE alas we won't be able to tap into any cold shot from the north, but may in the longer term.