Storm Brian - Weather discussion

[Daniel*]

It is now official and has been named by Met Eireann this means an amber warning is soon to be in force. A deep area of low pressure is currently undergoing rapid cyclogenesis, heading our way for this weekend coinciding with daylight hours and a slow mover it appears it could be a trouble maker. 

 

Edited October 19, 2017 by Daniel*

[Alpine glow]

30 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It is now official and has been named by Met Eireann this means an amber warning is soon to be in force. A deep area of low pressure is currently undergoing rapid cyclogenesis, heading our way for this weekend coinciding with daylight hours and a slow mover it appears it could be a trouble maker. 

 

Fabulous weekend to pick to pitch the tent for three nights in Uckfield!  Will stay away from trees....

[Mapantz]

A fair few models have showed a slight decline in wind speeds/gusts now, the Met Office forecast have knocked them down a fair bit for here as well.

[AWD]

52 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A fair few models have showed a slight decline in wind speeds/gusts now, the Met Office forecast have knocked them down a fair bit for here as well.

That's because the storm is forecast to track NE on a slightly more northerly path now, meaning the south, whilst still very windy, isn't forecast to receive the maximum gusts it once was.

West Wales along with parts of Ireland look to claim this spot now.

[Mapantz]

16 minutes ago, AWD said:

That's because the storm is forecast to track NE on a slightly more northerly path now, meaning the south, whilst still very windy, isn't forecast to receive the maximum gusts it once was.

West Wales along with parts of Ireland look to claim this spot now.

Not only that, RACY takes place well before Brian makes landfall, so it slowly fills thereafter. I guess an amber will be issued at some point, as that's the criteria for it to be named.

[elfinpunk]

The amber warning has already been issued by the Irish Met Office which is why it has been named. X

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, Alpine glow said:

Fabulous weekend to pick to pitch the tent for three nights in Uckfield!  Will stay away from trees....

Advisable you may experience some difficulty erecting the tent.  

[Mokidugway]

14 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Advisable you may experience some difficulty erecting the tent.  

Yes you may have trouble getting it up 

[Chris.R]

Oh god here we go!

[Evening thunder]

The Met Office forecast now only goes for low 40's gusts her (downgraded from low 50's). Slightly higher gusts were forecast and are occurring now.  Heard something sizeable break in trees by the river and just had 44mph on my valley floor, sub-standard height anemometer. I bet Brian doesn't beat that and with the rain it probably fees stormier now too.

I thought Saturday wouldn't be too bad here though, models like the ECM had it filling more than the GFS showed, and also it has drifted a bit further north now. So a very windy and probably yellow warning worthy for some but not a 'proper' strong storm, and maybe just a 'windy day' here.

Also it seems very difficult to get a proper storm here. Apart from a couple of amber-warning level events in February 2014 (that I wasn't here for) they always hit further north, fill somewhat before arriving, or occasionally go south into France or intensify after passing over

Edited October 19, 2017 by Evening thunder

[Dorsetbred]

3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

A fair few models have showed a slight decline in wind speeds/gusts now, the Met Office forecast have knocked them down a fair bit for here as well.

Looking less and less likely to be anything other than and regular October storm down here, if it continues on the projected NE path. Time will tell, but seemingly little to be excited about down here..

 

[The PIT]

Downgrade on this evenings GFS I suspect this won't be a stormy spell for sheffield.

[Mokidugway]

Unlike Ophelia rain will be an issue.

[SnowSquall]

Glamping in Croyde, North Devon from tomorrow night... the safari tent looks sound, and concreted in... but it's a tent... more worried about flying debris!

[Charmayne]

Is this likely to impact Northern Ireland? The Irish sea side?

[Trance]

What’s the projection for coastal Essex? 

The path of the storm looks much further north than here, so a little confused by our yellow warning.

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, chris pawsey said:

Glamping in Croyde, North Devon from tomorrow night... the safari tent looks sound, and concreted in... but it's a tent... more worried about flying debris!

Can't see how you can glamping  and call it that in mid October though in a heavy canvas tent you'll be fine  ,I did land and sky at Glastonbury a few years ago expensive but excellent fun  

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

Gusts up to 60mph on the coast of South Wales. So a disappointing start to half term especially for those coming here on holidays in places such as Tenby, Pendine,Gower, Porthcawl etc but there shouldn't be any major impacts here. Main thing to bear in mind though, we have high Spring tides at the moment so seafronts and promenades could be dangerous at times of the morning & evening high tides on Saturday. The strongest gusts should clear SW Wales by dinner time and SE Wales by teatime although it'll remain fairly gusty well into the afternoon. Heavy rain at first will be followed by sunshine and heavy showers which should ease off across the west by teatime leaving a drier evening. Sunday is expected to be bright and breezy then next week high pressure building so after a wet start it should become much drier and a lot less windy too.

Have a great half term everyone:) 

Edited October 19, 2017 by DJ RY

[Frosty hollows]

Yes, looks like the West coast of England and Wales will feel most impact in UK. Overtoppling waves could be a problem especially if Ophelia caused any damage

[carl1980]

merseyside just in the level 1 for severe wind gusts

[frogesque]

New moon is on 19th. Oct, (today) with highest spring tides 1 or 2 later.

Could be an issue for coastal areas. 

[Marcus_surfer]

Is it me or has storm Brian intensified in the last 8 hours, its looking quite a nasty storm now out in the atlantic

[Mapantz]

8 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Is it me or has storm Brian intensified in the last 8 hours, its looking quite a nasty storm now out in the atlantic

It was expected to undergo rapid cyclogenesis before reaching our shores, so it won't be as severe when it does get here, as it'll start to fill.

[Man With Beard]

57 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Is it me or has storm Brian intensified in the last 8 hours, its looking quite a nasty storm now out in the atlantic

Check out the ARGEPE 12Z, go 9 hours in, select 10m mean winds, then "View this image" and zoom in on the storm. You'll see a tiny black spot where Brian has gone off the top of its scale. That translates to at least 90mph mean wind speed - in other words, approaching the power of a cat 2 hurricane.

As it's sure to weaken hereafter, I think we dodged a bullet.

[Snowyowl9]

13 hours ago, Mokidugway said:

Unlike Ophelia rain will be an issue.

Unique storm that was memorable.

Edited October 20, 2017 by Snowyowl9