Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, UKMO 144 is pants, worst of season, EC good though going for sliders

 

Any thoughts on this chart matey?

uppers -6/-7

Looks like a cold north wester to me, but the meto app says rain showers thur/fri @ 300m locally, surely thats not right?

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, UKMO 144 is pants, worst of season, EC good though going for sliders

 

I suggest you have your eyes tested if you think that. UKMO T144 the fact that some folk are troubled by it encourages me I was expecting to see much worse.

we're not in a bad place then  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Any thoughts on this chart matey?

uppers -6/-7

Looks like a cold north wester to me, but the meto app says rain showers thur/fri @ 300m locally, surely thats not right?

Those uppers will be rain here, need -10 off NW'ly, but thicknesses good

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

I suggest you have your eyes tested if you think that. UKMO T144 the fact that some folk are troubled by it encourages me I was expecting to see much worse.

we're not in a bad place then  

looks like jet will run over the top?

[Daniel*]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Any thoughts on this chart matey?

uppers -6/-7

Looks like a cold north wester to me, but the meto app says rain showers thur/fri @ 300m locally, surely thats not right?

It wouldn't be don't bother with apps unless it is in the immediate short term. All snow at that height. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

looks like jet will run over the top?

Agreed.

High to topple in at 168 IMHO.

Thankfully its on its own, EC much better.

I do agree with icebergs post earlier tho, unless we see some block to the north eventually the pattern will flatten out, judging by the meto update yesterday they are indicating the jet staying south- but i'm scratching my head this morning trying to see where the northern blocking is to force the jet south for more than a few days.

[Frosty.]

Time to accentuate the positives, Gfs / Ecm 00z look great from a wintry perspective..even Darren bett was grinning when he said there is a massive change on the way later in the week..turning much much colder with snow around!..nice one daz.

Ps..can't give points for posts I like at the moment, hope that is fixed soon!

 

Edited December 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[Daniel*]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Agreed.

High to topple in at 168 IMHO.

Thankfully its on its own, EC much better.

I do agree with icebergs post earlier tho, unless we see some block to the north eventually the pattern will flatten out, judging by the meto update yesterday they are indicating the jet staying south- but i'm scratching my head this morning trying to see where the northern blocking is to force the jet south for more than a few days.

There is that but the ridge looks to leave a legacy with a wedge of +ve heights to NW going forward i would guess. It can just be enough to induce a wintry spell. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

From experience, NW winds are far better for snow showers than last weeks Northerly direction.. Just personal preference but seemed to be the case in the past.

 

Also, what last 5 winters can you say we could potentially have had 2 northerlies in November and December.. Not even half way through winter!

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It wouldn't be don't bother with apps unless it is in the immediate short term. All snow at that height. 

Indeed- but the text is hardly inspiring either- wet start thur with blustery wintry showers following on behind.

Not even a cursory 'with some accumulations on the hills'

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Also, to add we are still talking about things 4-5 days in advance. The start of last week the South east looked to stay bone dry with nothing but a flurry. Many saw falling snow in London with accumulations further East and North.. It goes to show the age old saying "Get the cold in first, worry about the PPN later"

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Indeed- but the text is hardly inspiring either- wet start thur with blustery wintry showers following on behind.

Not even a cursory 'with some accumulations on the hills'

you should see snow, 202m, time of year may help, last northerly was mainly sleet at -7 uppers of NW'ly, but was only 25 Nov

[northwestsnow]

One thing i am intrigued about is the jet- it looks set to explode into life - considering we have a relatively benign PV and zonal winds are still really quite low....

[Weather-history]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Indeed- but the text is hardly inspiring either- wet start thur with blustery wintry showers following on behind.

Not even a cursory 'with some accumulations on the hills'

Worrying about a text  forecast for 100+hrs out on a Sunday morning. I know we all have interest and love in the weather but seriously....warnings will probably be issued nearer the time when details have been firmed up.

Edited December 3, 2017 by Weather-history

[Nick F]

24 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

All this being said the jet is ramping up and unless we see lots of help from northern blocking the pattern will kill itself pretty quickly. 

Indeed, the frigid deep cold vortex over Canada and N / NE USA will inevitably serve to tighten the thermal gradient and fire up the jet downstream over the N Atlantic, just hope that upper trough covering much of Europe remains stationary and keeps the jet to the west of the UK diving SE towards Iberia.

Fortunately EPS mean seems to suggest the standing wave trough over Europe ain't shifting still at day 10 and still some ridging in the means toward Iceland too:

 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Weather-history said:

Worrying about a text  forecast for 100+hrs out on a Sunday morning. I know we all have interest and love in the weather but seriously....warnings will prorbably be issued nearer the time when details have been firmed up.

Haha well thats the pessimist in me Kev

The liverpool snow row is 23 on thur/fri, thats really high (on GEFS).

Im sure you are right regarding warnings etc, infact your post is right full stop lol.

 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Indeed, the frigid deep cold vortex over Canada and N / NE USA will inevitably serve to tighten the thermal gradient and fire up the jet downstream over the N Atlantic, just hope that upper trough covering much of Europe remains stationary and keeps the jet to the west of the UK diving SE towards Iberia.

Fortunately EPS mean seems to suggest the standing wave trough over Europe ain't shifting still at day 10 and still some ridging in the means toward Iceland too:

 

Thats a cracking chart Nick

Cant see much evidence of it on the DET runs this morning though...

Edited December 3, 2017 by Nick F
reply out of quote box

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Indeed- but the text is hardly inspiring either- wet start thur with blustery wintry showers following on behind.

Not even a cursory 'with some accumulations on the hills'

Thursday starts wet for you but I suspect by Friday morning a layer of white might greet you. 

Some folk take these snippets from MetO with too munch conviction even the MetO are on the fence a lot just like us..

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

you should see snow, 202m, time of year may help, last northerly was mainly sleet at -7 uppers of NW'ly, but was only 25 Nov

Time of year can work both ways...yes the days are short but the seas are still warm-ish- which will moderate -

It would be nice to have snow on the ground for the weekend(it would probably stick around for a couple of days on EC), certainly if i'm not high enough i can nip up the road to 340m, if thats not high enough i give up..

[northwestsnow]

EC op snow depths are really good for quite a lot of people!!

Most snow reserved for western Britain (suggestive of the North westerly)- SE generally snow free

 

 

 

Edited December 3, 2017 by northwestsnow

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC op snow depths-

 

We're buried off the scale then!!!!  

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, AWD said:

We're buried off the scale then!!!!  

Haha- sorry it wont let me upload the image..

parts of wales have a foot!! Round here about 4 inches.

its on weather.us site.

Edited December 3, 2017 by northwestsnow

[That ECM]

FWIW t168 ukmo has the high  sitting to the sw and a westerly feed. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

FWIW t168 ukmo has the high  sitting to the sw and a westerly feed. 

No suprise there- the 144 was dreadful and was only going one way imho.

Hopefully its wrong, very wrong.

[knocker]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats a cracking chart Nick

Cant see much evidence of it on the DET runs this morning though...

You can't?