North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[Spah1]

Someone shoot me now. 

[Miamay]

Nothing going on here. My sisters who live in Aylesbury & Watford have lots of snow. 

[Wardlegacy]

31 minutes ago, Spurry said:

Tomasz Schafernaker's response to my tweet that they got it wrong ; do you agree with him?

More

Replying to @efc5661 @metoffice

Hang on a minute, If you watched forecasts there was always a suggestion that the area could drift many miles north or south. A forecast is just forecast not a certainty. Some may have missed it by a few tens of miles. That’s good accuracy for days in advance.

I think the met office were pretty good myself they had already adjusted their forecast against the models to account for a shift south. I’m terms of the small distances involved in global terms then I think people are wing a bit unfair to them . They key to this is not the symbols shown on the app changing but the percentage above the snow symbols this was going down every day. We had to be in the Amber area warning because there has to be a degree of allowing for some movement. The only thing they got wrong early on and so did the models was the degree of pivot whereas if you look at historical events these always seem to pivot 

[itsnowjoke]

16 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Yes same here.

we are still in the yellow area and have not seen a single flake this morning.

Yeh I thought that 

[frosty ground]

This place looks more like a nursery every day.....

[Joe Bloggs]

Frankly I think the Met Office did as well as they could, given the model output. Remember this is what their model was showing as recently as Friday. It was only yesterday that the models shifted the snow south, and they updated their warnings accordingly. 

[Summer Sun]

41 minutes ago, Spurry said:

Tomasz Schafernaker's response to my tweet that they got it wrong ; do you agree with him?

More

Replying to @efc5661 @metoffice

Hang on a minute, If you watched forecasts there was always a suggestion that the area could drift many miles north or south. A forecast is just forecast not a certainty. Some may have missed it by a few tens of miles. That’s good accuracy for days in advance.

The northern extent of the snow was always open to question/debate it became clear yesterday it was shifting further south hence the adjustment to the amber warning removing the likes of Manchester, on the whole, they've done a good job TV forecasts had always stressed that it could be so many miles further north/south so like I said they've done a pretty good job overall IMO

[Spah1]

History with sliders has always moved them south. They should have factored that in better. 

[itsnowjoke]

So just to be clear it's not gonna snow it's not gonna pivot round and surprise is all 

[Makemeasnowman]

Still snowing here all be it lightly

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

5 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

So just to be clear it's not gonna snow it's not gonna pivot round and surprise is all 

Yeah kick us up the weeble just for kicks!!

[Spurry]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The northern extent of the snow was always open to question/debate it became clear yesterday it was shifting further south hence the adjustment to the amber warning removing the likes of Manchester, on the whole, they've done a good job TV forecasts had always stressed that it could be so many miles further north/south so like I said they've done a pretty good job overall IMO

I agree about the northern edge doubt ,however it was yesterday that they started to retreat southwards,on friday night we were still covered and confidence was high,I think to not accurately forecast beyond 24hrs is not good enough.I'm sure the Meto will come under scrutiny for this and the fact that west London has had snow today ,on Friday they stated that London had no chance of any snow sunday

[Backtrack]

Temp up to 1.0C now, drip drip drip. Going down to Llangollen again later- know for a fact they got pasted 

[Wardlegacy]

8 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

History with sliders has always moved them south. They should have factored that in better. 

Although I do remember a slider that are further north a few years ago and needed up in Scotland and all out snow melted. Maybe someone with a better memory with know when this was

[Spurry]

Whatever the reasons are whether it's pivot,uncertainty orinability to over-ride computer modelling,I don't believe the METO/BBC handled this well for Northern England and lessons should be learned.Posters on the Mod thread on here raised doubts about the northern extent of the slider before the Meto did.

There were even questions asked about whether the 2 big derbies today should go ahead , imagine if they'd called them off yesterday

Edited December 10, 2017 by Spurry

[Backtrack]

Winds swinging NW again later, that’ll do 1 of two things 

1) prevent a frost

2) produce rain. 

Lol

[iand61]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

History with sliders has always moved them south. They should have factored that in better. 

That's the only criticism I would point at the professional organisations and not just the Met.

history tells them that everything would head south, a lot of amateur's on here said everything would head south but they stuck to their faith in the models only to end up falling in line with the might of the NW forum.

maybe they will learn by their mistakes and not consider us a candidates for similar future events but we as members in the snow starved north west will no doubt still try and convince ourselves that they are wrong and a flake or two is heading our way.

meanwhile, finally decided to give the Manchester Christmas Markets a miss so it looks like a mixture of holiday packing and spot the snow flake for me this afternoon.

 

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Temp up to 1.0C now, drip drip drip. Going down to Llangollen again later- know for a fact they got pasted 

That sux BT ...thought you would do well 2day

[mottram blue]

the area of snow in yorkshire to my east given we have a north easterly wind might they then move over the pennines to east manchester/Oldham/ Glossop area.  I have currently have light snow 

[iand61]

1 minute ago, mottram blue said:

the area of snow in yorkshire to my east given we have a north easterly wind might they then move over the pennines to east manchester/Oldham/ Glossop area.  I have currently have light snow 

Good luck with that one but at least you've got something falling.

as dry as the Atacami here.

[Geordiesnow]

10 minutes ago, Spurry said:

Whatever the reasons are whether it's pivot,uncertainty orinability to over-ride computer modelling,I don't believe the METO/BBC handled this well for Northern England and lessons should be learned.Posters on the Mod thread on here raised doubts about the northern extent of the slider before the Meto did.

There were even questions asked about whether the 2 big derbies today should go ahead , imagine if they'd called them off yesterday

At the end of the day, I think the met office has got this fairly accurate to be fair, as others said the question was just how far north the band would get before it's pivots.

[Mokidugway]

Not only have to suffer the indignation of no snow but I  also get the bloody cloud  

[Spurry]

Interesting tweet from Tomasz Schafernaker On the 9th December 

Brrrrr..... snow day on the way tomorrow. Oooo some of you will have a lotta fun Sunday......not me in the Capital

 

Think he got that wrong as well

[iand61]

Only slight comfort I've found is seeing pictures on facecloth of the amazing snow in northwest London when they've got about the same as my almost zilch.

still at least they've got more than the nothing they were expecting whereas we've gone from being buried to next to nothing.

i feel sorry for all the Man U fans sat at Euston wondering whether the snow on the lines is the wrong type.

[Spurry]

Apparently it's snowing here, well according to the NW radar it is! It must be so heavy I've gone snow blind