Short range model discussion - into 2018

[knocker]

The weekend will be dry and quite pleasant for man but as has been noted there are complications.and with low pressure to the west showers will creep into the south west this morning and then into Wales and N. Ireland later. On the other side of the country a wriggling front is moving slowly north roughly along the east coast and this will introduce rain into the south east late morning which will track north during the day. There could well be some quite heavy and thundery bursts along the eastern part of the country. Elsewhere dry and quite pleasant.

Overnight the showers in the west will continue and through Sunday spread further inland with some thunder thrown in, and the rain in the east will persist but slowly clear during Sunday morning/early afternoon and not feeling particularly warm here. There is some doubt about when and where as this is very dependent on the precise position of the slow moving front. Again elsewhere dry and quite pleasant.

By 1200 Monday the low to our west has lost it's identity and a wave is forming on the front west of Ireland whilst the UK is under the influence of a weak ridge and light winds.so a dry sunny day with temps a little above average. The exception being the south east which is still under the influence of the low pressure over Europe so cooler with some patchy rain here.

Over Tuesday the UK remains in a very slack gradient and thus light winds will all the signs of it being generally a fine day for most with temps above average. But the aforementioned wave has developed and is now west of Scotland with the associated cold front orientated down the west coast of Ireland. This will bring patchy rain into N. Ireland and western Scotland.

As high pressure builds to the west overnight Tuesday and through Wednesday the cold front will track south east through Wednesday bringing with it the patchy rain and introducing much cooler air with temps below average.

Last evening's 2-7 anomaly is a reasonable fit for this evolution. and gives a good idea of the NH pattern

 

 

Edited May 12, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Nice 0600 UTC geostationary illustrating the low to the north west of Ireland, the mass of showers around the south west approaches, cloud and some rain creeping north from France and the wriggling front north east Scotland down through the North Sea to Holland and Germany.

Edited May 12, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm similarly ridging north east over the UK. Cooler day on Weds post front

Edited May 12, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The 0900 UTC geostationary.

The line of showers to the south west is just arriving here after a cracking morning

[knocker]

Great high res. MODIS at 1200 UTC (courtesy DSRS)

[knocker]

The frontal rain, currently affecting the south east will continue to track north this evening, overnight and through tomorrow morning before fading and moving away to the north east. The front is very slow moving. Showers currently affecting the south west may be heavy at times this evening and further afield before dying out overnight and thus areas away from the east should have a dry day tomorrow.

And with thundery showers rapidly approaching from the west a nice unstable sounding at 1200

 

Edited May 12, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The passage of the cold front south east overnight Tuesday and Wednesday introduces some much cooler air and thus chilly nights

[knocker]

Quite a clear start to the day in western and central areas but the slow moving front that was the cause of the cloud and rain in the yesterday is still very adjacent to the east coast and will remain so for the rest of the day. So although most of the UK will have a relatively sunny day with broken cloud, with the odd shower around in the west, particularly in N. Ireland, patchy rain will hang around in the north east and east

Clear periods for most areas overnight but the front is still hanging around the east coast so still cloudy with some patchy light rain in places and another front has pushed into western Ireland bringing more cloud there. This will move a tad further east during Monday bringing some light rain to N. Ireland and western Scotland whilst to the east still cloudy with some showery rain caused by  remnants of the front. Elsewhere with a ridge building a warm and pleasant day with temps gradually rising.

Taking a step back at 00 Tuesday to get a quick fix on the overall pattern we have the Canadian vortex lobe starting to wander with the associated trough stretching south east into the Atlanti, strong blocking over Scandinavia with the Azores ridging north east towards it and low pressure over Europe.

The corresponding surface analysis finds a wave forming on the front dividing the airmasses which tracks north east to be just north west of the Hebrides, as the earlier front decays, by 1200 Tuesday with the cold front aligned western Scotland/Ireland with light rain in these areas. Elsewhere it will be dry and sunny with temps still climbing and now above average.

The front and rain will track south east during the rest of Tuesday and Wednesday leaving cooler air in it's wake whilst high pressure consolidates just to the west.

The decaying front slides into Europe Thursday leaving the high cell ensconced over the UK thus light winds and quite a pleasant day but the temps are tending to dip a bit overnight with ground frost on the cards and even perhaps a touch of air frost in susceptible areas

 

 

Edited May 13, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The 0600 geostationary (courtesy DSRS)

[knocker]

The ecm 2-6 anomaly covers the short term evolution but beware the vortex drifting east.  The expected drop of temps mid week but remaining dry and quite pleasant. Much of that rainfall will be today.

 

 

[knocker]

Another fine high res. MODIS at 1251 UTC (courtesy DSRS)

 

Edited May 13, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Nothing particularly to update this evening with the gfs but perhaps the vortex lobe shifting east with the Scandinavia ridge tending to migrate may become a slight concern

[knocker]

Tomorrow finds the decaying front still hanging around the south east and another in the Irish sea so cloudy in areas adjacent to these but elsewhere a warm and pleasant day

 

[knocker]

The ecm is spinning up a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico this week. According to RM the system may not be fully tropical at first but this model indicates a "transition" into a compact, warm-core entity.

[knocker]

A tranquil and relatively warm week with high pressure dominating is pretty much nailed on so hopefully this will only necessitate a succinct and short update.

First a brief overview

Currently the NH pattern that impacts the UK is the vortex lobe over southern Greenland, a strong northern Scandinavian block with the Azores ridging north east towards the same and a trough in the western Mediterranean. Ergo the strong upper westerlies exiting North America south of the Greenland trough back south westerly in mid Atlantic which facilitates the aforementioned high pressure dominance.

A little more detail.

Today will be a fine and sunny day for most but there are a couple of decaying fronts hanging around, one over Ireland which will give cloud and the odd spot of rain over N. Ireland and the other to the east which could well produce low cloud along eastern coasts and thus depress the temps a tad.

A clear night for many areas leading to a warm (probably the warmest day of the week) and sunny day, still some risk of low cloud along some coasts, but by 1200 a cold front is pushing in from the west and is over Ireland and the Western Isles bringing some rain to these areas which will track slowly south  east.during the evening.

The front and patchy rain will continue to track south east through Wednesday before clearing the south coast and it will leave a cooler airmass as the high pressure builds from the south west. The cooler temps may be more noticeable along east coasts in the N/NE drift.

Thursday and Friday will be warm and sunny with the usual caveat vis coastal areas but under the high pressure some diurnal temp variation with some chilly mornings with ground frost quite likely.

 

Edited May 14, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The 0600 geostationary (courtesy DSRS) Nice morning

[knocker]

After a fine day for most this evening the low cloud that has affected pasrts of the east coast may drift a little further inland ans similarly in the far west, otherwise a clear night.

But tomorrow it will recede again giving a sunny and warm day in many areas but during the morning the cold front has approached Ireland and the Western Isles so a band of patchy rain will slowly cross the north west, tending to fizzle out as it goes. The temps mat still be a tad depressed in eastern coastal areas and they will certainly be lower in the cooler airmass behind the front

 

Edited May 14, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Posted the wrong total rainfall chart above, meant to be this one

[knocker]

Really quite an impressive Atlantic trough but the block solid

 

Edited May 14, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Today will dawn bright and clear for most areas and will continue in this vein leading to many having a very warm day. The slight exception being the eastern and and far west coastal areas where the overnight fog and low cloud, courtesy of two decaying fronts, may linger and thus depress the temps. Also today sees the transition to a colder airmass and the cold front responsible for this is over Ireland and the Western Isles this morning and the band of patchy rain associated with it will track slowly south east down the country through today, decaying as it goes, introducing the clearer but cooler air in it's wake.

Overnight and through Wednesday the front will continue on it's travels but fizzling out as it goes resulting in a much cloudier day in central and southern areas with the cooler clearer air behind  and thus a much cooler day all round from today as the high pressure builds to the west  Particularly in eastern areas which will be subject to a light N/NE drift.

By Thursday the high cell is safely nestled over the UK leading to another generally sunny day, albeit not as warm as now, usual caveats vis coastal areas, and also a fair diurnal temp range range resulting in some quite cold night's with ground frost, and possibly even an air frost, in some areas.

A similar story on Friday but some pressure on the block is being exerted by the energy swinging south of the intense upper trough situated around the southern tip of Greenland and a decaying front is attempting to push into western Ireland.

By Saturday this impressive upper low has deepened over the Denmark strait with the deep surface low associated with it south of Iceland, all of which is putting pressure on the very resilient block resulting in the high cell shifting a tad east and possibly some cloud from the associated front just about impinging on the north west. otherwise another dry and sunny day after a chilly start.

Edited May 15, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The 0500 UTC surface analysis showing the fog/low cloud/drizzle along western coasts. I can confirm that is the case here at the moment

Edited May 15, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The 0600 UTC geostationary (courtesy DSRS) neatly sums up the current analysis

[knocker]

A glance at this morning's shorter term anomalies just to check on the NH pattern.

Not surprisingly still dominated by the deep trough southern Greenland, a continuing high pressure block northern Scandinavia with low pressure to the south of the UK, particularly in the western Mediterranean. Thus the strong westerly jet exiting North America south of the trough swings south west in mid Atlantic courtesy of the block. This facilitates the Azores to ridge north east

All of which leaves the UK in a very slack pressure area so dry and pleasant and with the ridge to the north east set to intensify for a time some interesting surface permutations are a possibility.

[knocker]

Cloud still lingering along the west coast and Norfolk on the 0900 UTC geostationary

[knocker]

Temps still depressed under the cloud and mist in the west at 1000 UTC with temps already up to 19Cin central southern areas