Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[Met4Cast]

Sighhhhhhh

One step forward, one step back from the Goofus 18z

It should go onto develop heights to the North, but it's delayed compared to the 12z so probably similar timing to the ECM.

[Weathizard]

GFS 18z goes with the ECM...

[Singularity]

Let's see if that LP east of Iceland can dive SE and end up being a stronger trigger low.

That'd be a good save following a typical model wobble. You're never going to get a steady trend in the finer details one way or the other in these situations - it's the broader direction of travel that counts. 

It's trying. 

 

Ah but look to the north here... substantial increase in the Arctic High as the SSW impacts filter in further!

[inghams85]

It's the chunk of vortex left over Iceland that slows down the evolution. If you look at the ECM this had the same as well

[Nick F]

Following up the Ian F tweets, EC weeklies looking cold and blocked weeks 2, 3 and 4. No early spring warmth with that look ... Block in retrogression through those weeks.

Edited February 12, 2018 by Nick F

[chionomaniac]

Sometimes when the model output doesn't show what you expect it is best to sit back and watch awhile.

Remember that the strat is normally a stable environment that is modelled well. But when we have a fragmentation of the vortex then the strat models will not be able to pick up where the remnants of the vortex will reside and this will be reflected with both the strat and trop output. So still caution advised but previous thoughts still remain regarding blocking and long term Scandi then NW blocking. There is obvious something in the programming that overreacted and reformed the trop vortex despite the fact that that would be against the background signals.

If you turn off the hoover and someone says that it will still suck up the dirt then be sceptical. Likewise with the modelling.

[Singularity]

 

Some may have been too quick to judge. This run might be about to show what ECM ought to have got up to had it had enough of an -AO response. Just a thought .

[SMU]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Following up the Ian F tweets, EC weeklies looking cold and blocked weeks 2, 3 and 4. No early spring warmth with that look ...

Has retrograde written all over it TBH...

A mamouth GH would be the icing on the cake-

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Much more energy in the troughing to our north at 120, not a good sign!

The angle of attack from WAA into iceland is better though,south to north instead of SW to NE at 150.

18z/12z

 

[Derecho]

The block to our north is really well positioned. What we want to see is a strong pulse of warm air sent to Greenland and the arctic and the PV held back with the UK high heading north.

If we get those some pretty intense cold may be about to appear on the good old pub run near our doorstep later on.

Lets see if I'm right or wrong... 

Edit looks like the WAA is going to the arctic rather then Greenland, perhaps this will build heights over Scandi instead.

Edited February 12, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[ITSY]

Variation on a theme. If anything the NH view is better. Chill out guys! 18Z first, 12Z second 

 

 

[chionomaniac]

GFS18Z looks primed at T+171.....Svalbard is a void ready for a pressure rise

[ICE COLD]

Still looks pretty good to me ?. 

Gfs 18z 180hrs 

[Ice Day]

I think I'm seeing a different run to some others, it's a bit different but seems good to me out to 180.  

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Has retrograde written all over it TBH...

A mamouth GH would be the icing on the cake-

A Greenland HP at that timeframe (late Feb/early March) would give us the best shot at funnelling the coldest air possible given the time of year. It is what we should be aiming for to prolong the cold.

An E'ly runs the risk of becoming tepid the further towards/into March we go (as the flow has to be nigh on perfect to ensure milder E Mediterranean air doesn't get into the flow).

[Met4Cast]

Paul Hudson pretty much confirming what @Steve Murr has been arguing for years now, confirmed by a pro

But yes, GFS very similar to the ECM thus far.

[Singularity]

 

It's bearing more and more resemblance to the stratospheric pattern currently way up above our heads (see link below).

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=0.22,84.70,337

[chionomaniac]

2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

It's bearing more and more resemblance to the stratospheric pattern currently way up above our heads (see link below).

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=0.22,84.70,337

Always a good chance of a cross polar flow with a split.

[Banbury]

9 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

I think I'm seeing a different run to some others, it's a bit different but seems good to me out to 180.  

 

It is good 

[chionomaniac]

Also, you don't really need to look past T+150 on the GFS tonight. If we can get to there without too much change then that is a great starting point for further down the line. I suspect that any block could easily transfer north from this point especially knowing that the upper vortex is split.

[Weathizard]

9 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Paul Hudson pretty much confirming what @Steve Murr has been arguing for years now, confirmed by a pro

But yes, GFS very similar to the ECM thus far.

Even though there is a negligable difference verification wise? Myth in my opinion.

[Banbury]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

Also, you don't really need to look past T+150 on the GFS tonight. If we can get to there without too much change then that is a great starting point for further down the line. I suspect that any block could easily transfer north from this point especially knowing that the upper vortex is split.

Yep spot on, happy with the block where it is at 168 

[Catacol]

Not much to say - Chio has said it all in my book - but to add some froth: models starting to resolve height rises for 7 days' time, though I think there is a way to go before we see the correct latitude. NE of the UK still the call. MJO sitting still in high amplitude phase 7 to add extra grunt.

Quite distinctive EPS signature for middle of next week - just need that high anomaly a little further north, and no reason yet to expect that not to occur.

[lorenzo]

Whatever could have caused this...

Gif of the break - just for fun.

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Paul Hudson pretty much confirming what @Steve Murr has been arguing for years now, confirmed by a pro

 

And yet we are all avidly watching the 18z unfold, can't be such a poor model then!