North west regional discussion

[itsnowjoke]

When's this meant to be valid for please

[Day 10]

8 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

When's this meant to be valid for please

Just wanted to point out that the setup we are seeing being forecast will start dry here at first but the strength of the Easterly forecast WILL push snow showers right across the country, we will just have to be a little more patient.

As it stands it's looking a great setup!

To add, we could then end up with a Greenland high which will be more to our benefit.

Edited February 18, 2018 by Day 10

[Deep Snow please]

The further away from the centre of a low we are, the less snow? So while the mod thread self-pleases to this because they are all southerners it's less useful for us, right?

[itsnowjoke]

14 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Just wanted to point out that the setup we are seeing being forecast will start dry here at first but the strength of the Easterly forecast WILL push snow showers right across the country, we will just have to be a little more patient.

As it stands it's looking a great setup!

To add, we could then end up with a Greenland high which will be more to our benefit.

Yes but when's it valid for 

[cheshire snow]

25 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

If this chart materialised at t0 would the showers make it over the Pennines?

If that chart verified the country would be crippled deep drifts over the hills

Snow down to sea level no marginal conditions in that set up.

Along with ice days and penetrating frosts.

This has all the ingredients of been a long cold spell and not the usual

Two day cold snap.

Forget about it been March this will deliver big time and could rival 2010

End of Ramp sit back and watch it unfold HOPEFULLY.

C.S

[cheshire snow]

Oh and just to add the Meto outlook is very weather pornographic 

C.S

[Deep Snow please]

6 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Oh and just to add the Meto outlook is very weather pornographic 

C.S

 

It is indeed isn't it; when was the last time we saw them this forthright in predicting cold:

UK Outlook for Friday 23 Feb 2018 to Sunday 4 Mar 2018:

Dry with sunny spells as we head into next weekend with overnight frosts, along with patchy mist and freezing fog. However, outbreaks of rain or drizzle along with some hill snow and stronger winds are possible at times across northwestern areas. Temperatures will turn colder for most with wind from the east or northeast, possibly brisk in SE England. The cold weather will be mainly dry initially with a chance of snow flurries in the east and southeast. Heading into the following week, there is an increased chance of snow for many, especially in the south and east. Although the location and timing of any snowfall remains uncertain. However, some milder unsettled weather may still occur at times, especially in the west.

UK Outlook for Monday 5 Mar 2018 to Monday 19 Mar 2018:

At the start of this period it is likely to stay cold for most with widespread overnight frost. There will be a greater chance than usual of mainly easterly winds originating from continental Europe, which could bring very cold weather at times and the potential for some snowfall, especially in eastern and southern parts. Unusually, it will probably be driest in the northwest. As we head further into mid March there are indications that it may become more changeable and less cold, with the wettest weather and mildest temperatures likely to be in the south or the southwest of the UK, but this is currently very uncertain.

[The Northern Ramper]

In years gone by true easterlies have buried parts of our region and the Synoptics being produced are at the extreme easterly end of the spectrum.

[Chris.R]

 Lovely and sunny here today. Expect it’s the foehn effect again. 

[SP1986]

6 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Lovely and sunny here today. Expect it’s the foehn effect again. 

Wrong wind direction for Foehn. Plus in a Foehn it would be circa 13-15C but it's just 8C. If the airflow turns southwest there's a definite chance

[Chris.R]

5 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Wrong wind direction for Foehn. Plus in a Foehn it would be circa 13-15C but it's just 8C. If the airflow turns southwest there's a definite chance

Well if not foehn then something similar. This SSE wind seems to have some affect. Seems to enhance the rain-shadow effect of the Welsh mountains. 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Chris.R

[chicken soup]

Think the mod thread is going to explode with excitement soon.....anyone got a few daisy cutter bombs to flatten the pennines with then we can share in the fun too.

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, itsnowjoke said:

Yes but when's it valid for 

It will feel bloody bitter in the wind too! 

[Deep Snow please]

17 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Think the mod thread is going to explode with excitement soon.....anyone got a few daisy cutter bombs to flatten the pennines with then we can share in the fun too.

With that much of a snow machine in action, it might just make it across them.

[Mokidugway]

30 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Think the mod thread is going to explode with excitement soon.....anyone got a few daisy cutter bombs to flatten the pennines with then we can share in the fun too.

Might need a few tzar bomba to achieve that 

[Summerstorm]

26 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

With that much of a snow machine in action, it might just make it across them.

Don't need that here lol no mountains in the way here   Hopefully it reaches you guys too though  Hopefully we can get some sunshine as well as all those dull dreary days except yesterday are depressing. 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Summerstorm

[Winter Hill]

Seriously not getting sucked in with all these Stella charts...once bitten, twice shy.

[Deep Snow please]

One thing that might bode well for us is that I've been following the north east threads and there's been a few occasions when what ended up being a sleety mush or rain this side of the pennines made it over overnight and turned into a decent snow event for them. So there's no reason the opposite can't be true for us.

[Day 10]

5 hours ago, itsnowjoke said:

When's this meant to be valid for please

As it stands I would say a week Monday onward to start looking for snow chances here.

Temps slowing starting to drop off from midweek this week, bitter by the weekend.

Next Sunday -

Next Monday -

Edited February 18, 2018 by Day 10

[Deep Snow please]

Mod runs even throwing up frontal systems of snow crossing the north and the south of the country now within 5-10 days!

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

Mod runs even throwing up frontal systems of snow crossing the north and the south of the country now within 5-10 days!

Yes, miles off yet. But yes snow can & will make it across here in a strong Easterly flow. One such area crossing the region as modeled here but this will change of course this far out.

 

[SP1986]

Snow is likely, even it is light and patchy.. it is unlikely to be picked up at this point. It could be moderate when it occurs, even on the west coast.

If the easterly flow stays strong, then daytime temperatures will struggle to rise above 0C anywhere in the region. However on the flip side, temperatures may struggle to fall much below -3C at night. 

Should to flow cut off and leave us under frigid air in high pressure with snow cover, we could witness widespread cold records being broken across the region. 

for my town, we need to beat -10.8C to beat the record..easily doable should -15C 850hPa and low thicknesses get caught above a snowcover and inversion system.

For an idea of what could happen, check out the sort of temperatures that occurred in a similar situation in Netherlands in 2013.

 

[dodge]

ECM has expected hints at a trend to send the coldest weather south into central europe with a stubborn high sat right over our parts.  It will be dry if that's a bonus.... cold & dry. 

[cheshire snow]

Has it gone tits up yet

C.S

[Day 10]

28 minutes ago, dodgeredee said:

ECM has expected hints at a trend to send the coldest weather south into central europe with a stubborn high sat right over our parts.  It will be dry if that's a bonus.... cold & dry. 

Yes but this route we end up with a Greenland High which in the end would be better for us anyhow. No downgrade just a different route to cold, dryer yes to begin with but this pattern will to and fro all week, the good thing is all roads lead to brutal cold and eventually we should end up with snow (no slushy crap either).