North west regional discussion

[severe snowstorm]

34 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Epic charts again this morn! This cold spell may well start dry here, but that Easterly wind looks a strong one and with time blowing heavy snow showers right across the country. Starting to believe this is the real deal now. Shaping up to be a classic cold spell  

Easterly looks set to arrive. No point worrying about precipitation at this range, details of which will not firm up until much nearer the time.

[SP1986]

The MAD thread is giving me a laugh this morning. A lot of people making out it will be the worst winter spell for xx years.

It might not turn out as cold as people are assuming if there's a breeze or cloud cover caught in the system. 

These cold spells seldom deliver very cold surface air from transported cold over the UK... However where there may be extreme surface cold air is if inversions occur (especially over snowfields) It would have to be one hell of an inversion but it is possible...

 

Edited February 18, 2018 by SP1986

[chicken soup]

With this looking like a possible repeat of 1987 can anyone remember how that affected our region, im guessing the snow missed us as easterlies are crap for here.

[severe snowstorm]

12 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

The MAD thread is giving me a laugh this morning. A lot of people making out it will be the worst winter spell for xx years.

It might not turn out as cold as people are assuming if there's a breeze or cloud cover caught in the system. 

These cold spells seldom deliver very cold surface air from transported cold over the UK... However where there may be extreme surface cold air is if inversions occur (especially over snowfields) It would have to be one hell of an inversion but it is possible...

 

Slate grey skies and snow grains are usually the order of the day with Easterly spells aren't they? It could be a great spell, but I guess we need proper troughs and features in the flow to deliver this far West.

[Mokidugway]

So an easterly ,dry grey cold days with no snow ,excellent news 

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Slate grey skies and snow grains are usually the order of the day with Easterly spells aren't they? It could be a great spell, but I guess we need proper troughs and features in the flow to deliver this far West.

A bog standard Easterly yeah, this ain't one. Will post properly later.

[Mokidugway]

Just now, Day 10 said:

A bog standard Easterly yeah, this ain't one. Will post properly later.

I'll look at fax later ,up to now not impressed ,lol

[Weather-history]

18 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

The MAD thread is giving me a laugh this morning. A lot of people making out it will be the worst winter spell for xx years.

It might not turn out as cold as people are assuming if there's a breeze or cloud cover caught in the system. 

These cold spells seldom deliver very cold surface air from transported cold over the UK... However where there may be extreme surface cold air is if inversions occur (especially over snowfields) It would have to be one hell of an inversion but it is possible...

 

IF ECM 0z op run proves correct, then we compare with 11th March 2013 which was only a brief blast, maxima were astonishing and that was snow showers and sunshine day. Carlisle, a maximum of just -1.8C, Nottingham: -2.7C, Rhyl: -0.3C

 

 

[Weather-history]

4 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

So an easterly ,dry grey cold days with no snow ,excellent news 

You have to take into consideration, the deepness of the cold air, instability and the sun is a bit stronger than early January. It looks unstable and with a bit of convection, it could be snow showers and sunshine. 

[severe snowstorm]

3 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

I'll look at fax later ,up to now not impressed ,lol

Whilst we are fairly sure the Easterly will arrive, I guess any projections of precipitation are well beyond the reliable time frame at the moment?

[Deep Snow please]

Well it's busy in here so something must be afoot. We'll need a bit of snow but unseasonably cold is pretty much nailed on.

[Joe Bloggs]

I have seen deep snow in Manchester on a convective easterly (showers and troughs).

If I remember correctly (was only a young kid), December 1996 and Feb 1991. Kevin will correct me if I’m wrong. 

[severe snowstorm]

2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Well it's busy in here so something must be afoot. We'll need a bit of snow but unseasonably cold is pretty much nailed on.

Yes, fairly certain to turn very cold later in the week but impossible to comment on potential for significant precipitation as this is beyond the 5-7 day period at least at this stage. Much can still change...

[Hocus Pocus]

34 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

With this looking like a possible repeat of 1987 can anyone remember how that affected our region, im guessing the snow missed us as easterlies are crap for here.

Around here very little in the way of snow just endless cold grey skies. Hopefully it’s something similar to Feb91, that did deliver.

Edited February 18, 2018 by Hocus Pocus

[Deep Snow please]

I noticed on the GFS that a lot of precip - I know there cackhanded and good for wiping your rear at this stage - seems to be dying over central England before it reaches us, so we could need a helping hand here, will be bloody freezing though and anything that does fall will be snow.

[iand61]

1 hour ago, chicken soup said:

With this looking like a possible repeat of 1987 can anyone remember how that affected our region, im guessing the snow missed us as easterlies are crap for here.

It was damn cold and I remember us having some snow on the ground here but the main memory was seeing news coverage of the SE being buried.

and that was back in day when weather conditions had to be newsworthy before they made the news and heavy falls of snow were at least six inches rather than a few millimetres.

[Spah1]

Lets hope for some troughs not just showers. 

I don't think I can sit through 10 days of heavy snow for the East, South and Midlands whilst we get nothing. 

Both sliders missed us. 

The PM air wasn't cold enough for Chorley to have lying snow. 

4 Weather warnings this year for Chorley for snow and under those warnings didn't see a snowflake fall. 

Lets get the Easterly in and then hope for some short waves to get the good stuff over the Pennines !!!

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, iand61 said:

It was damn cold and I remember us having some snow on the ground here but the main memory was seeing news coverage of the SE being buried.

and that was back in day when weather conditions had to be newsworthy before they made the news and heavy falls of snow were at least six inches rather than a few millimetres.

Doesn't sound too promising, hopefully we can get some sort of snow-making machine from the North Sea that can get across the mountains out of it, or a battleground scenario. 

I don't remember 1987 due to the minor hindrance of not even being a twinkle in my mothers eye.

However these reports show it as being pretty awful for the Eastern side of England and the South West. (The sounds a bit dodgy in parts)

 

[dodge]

Yes no doubt with the cold being forecasted those on the east side of the country won't have to worry about marginality if the showers hit.  Nothing wet & slushy like our North Westerlies have sent us this winter.  I'm fully prepared for cold, dry & perhaps the odd flurry, before the Westerlies crash through and sends the cold back east.

Edited February 18, 2018 by dodgeredee

[Mokidugway]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

You have to take into consideration, the deepness of the cold air, instability and the sun is a bit stronger than early January. It looks unstable and with a bit of convection, it could be snow showers and sunshine. 

True but cold uppers and cold land can't imagine lapse rates being that good 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Mokidugway

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I have seen deep snow in Manchester on a convective easterly (showers and troughs).

If I remember correctly (was only a young kid), December 1996 and Feb 1991. Kevin will correct me if I’m wrong. 

Yes they both delivered here too, Feb 91 6 inches and Dec 96 about 4 inches if I remember rightly. This setup could surpass both of those for depth of cold, strength of wind and the length it could last. All looking very interesting indeed.

This could be really something special, yes the East will get plastered, but I think the UK as a whole would be affected by snow at some point and powder snow at that too.

[Spah1]

If this chart materialised at t0 would the showers make it over the Pennines?

[Day 10]

 

[Day 10]

 

[Day 10]