SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[snow freak]

5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

That’s a downgrade then,only settling in places now? Thought it was going to get so cold it was settling everywhere,so now only on high ground or what

very poor update,hope it’s not going all wrong at the last minute 

a day ago they were saying that anywhere that does get snow then it will definitely settle as the temperatures will be so low.  What the hell are they saying now then?

[Southender]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Why say in places then,talk about confusing everyone

It’s not worded brilliantly. What they mean is if it snows it will settle, that is a fact. But they aren’t committing to where and how much as yet which is fair enough.

[Big Snow]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

I live in north east London and on 1st Dec 2010 we had a few inches of snowfall. Certainly not just a dusting. 

Ah, I stand corrected. I was in west London at the time and we had maybe 2cms; makes sense you might have had more. You're probably in a prime position for showers that drift down through East Anglia then.

[Number 23]

3 minutes ago, Mark said:

BBC have updated their online forecast now.

Always unbroken snow Monday to Wednesday!

For London

I think that's correct for London, but if you mean the computer generated one, I don't trust them at all.

For instance, my location is showing as bone dry for all of Monday and Tuesday! Might pan out that way as I'm not in a prime location, but I seriously doubt it  

[jayney69]

My BBC app only gives a 30% chance of snow showers on Tuesday night, whilst my MetOffice one gives slightly more, but no notice of heavy snow. I’m in North Kent, just outside Sittingbourne, so I would have expected the forecast to have shown more chance?

[beng]

21 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Trying to convince people that the forecast isn't rubbish is proving an uphill struggle -  "I'll believe it when I see it"; "a load of hot air" ; "all a fuss about nothing" 

I don't think it just the cry wolf issue, but also that there's a psychological issue that applies here (especially after 4 mild winters previously) - normalcy bias.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

[Paul]

7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

That’s a downgrade then,only settling in places now? Thought it was going to get so cold it was settling everywhere,so now only on high ground or what

very poor update,hope it’s not going all wrong at the last minute 

I think you're misunderstanding as the wording could be better. I think it means, snow showers in places - ie not everyone in the risk area will see lying snow, as by their nature that's what showers do. 

[Southender]

1 minute ago, snowy weather said:

Looking at the weather forecasts I genuinely can't see what the hype is??

Am I missing something?

No One else I know seems to care much about the weather next week?

It's gonna be slightly chilly with very light snow.

 

It’s going to be brutally cold everywhere. Some places will get a dusting, some will get a pasting.

[JennyJane1]

Just went out to the big Tesco, colder than the last few days and a few grainy icy things falling which had stopped by the time i came out, i got everything i needed, and it looked like there was plenty of bread, milk, deicer, soup, etc.

[Flaked Queen]

My app broke 

[SLEETY]

1 minute ago, snowy weather said:

Looking at the weather forecasts I genuinely can't see what the hype is??

Am I missing something?

No One else I know seems to care much about the weather next week?

It's gonna be slightly chilly with very light snow.

 

It’s too early to know how much snow will fall but I’d be surprised if most of our region don’t get several inches even where we are in the western parts,the strong wind will blow the showers well inland,that’s if it settles,the met office don’t seem confident it seems of that now,despite 850hpa of around -15c and sub zero dew points,could be just a poor worded forecast hopefully!

 

[warrenb]

3.1C with DP -3C, clouding over and swear I just saw a snowflake

[Big Snow]

Just now, SLEETY said:

It’s too early to know how much snow will fall but I’d be surprised if most of our region don’t get several inches even where we are in the western parts,the strong wind will blow the showers well inland,that’s if it settles,the met office don’t seem confident it seems of that now,despite 850hpa of around -15c and sub zero dew points,could be just a poor worded forecast hopefully!

 

You've answered your own worry. With such low DPs settling snow will not be a problem.

[Number 23]

I'd say the apps and online snow predictions are going to be pretty useless in this situation. Since this isn't a frontal snow event you could see nothing for hours then cop a couple of hours of heavy snow off a shower which peps up in the North Sea, which barely grazes your mates house down the road. It can be equal parts frustrating and exciting, which is why I prefer a classic Easterly. Once a front clears that's generally your lot.

Impossible for a human or computer to get right for a specific postcode!

Edited February 23, 2018 by Number 23

[snowy weather]

4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

It’s too early to know how much snow will fall but I’d be surprised if most of our region don’t get several inches even where we are in the western parts,the strong wind will blow the showers well inland,that’s if it settles,the met office don’t seem confident it seems of that now,despite 850hpa of around -15c and sub zero dew points,could be just a poor worded forecast hopefully!

 

Ok I understand. Yeah I got that impression from the metoffice forecast

[Daenerys]

Ok. I am sure I also just saw a snowflake. Either someone is probably having a bonfire or we are seeing the same solitary snowflake just drifting around...

[Flaked Queen]

1 minute ago, Number 23 said:

I'd say the apps and online snow predictions are going to be pretty useless in this situation. Since this isn't a frontal snow event you could see nothing for hours then cop a couple of hours of heavy snow off a shower which peps up in the North Sea, which barely grazes your mates house down the road. 

Impossible for a human or computer to get right for a specific postcode!

Well clearly mine is a useful as a chocolate fire guard 

[warrenb]

Just now, Daenerys said:

Ok. I am sure I also just saw a snowflake. Either someone is probably having a bonfire or we are seeing the same solitary snowflake just drifting around...

Well it is quite windy 

[tomp456]

12 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

My app broke 

Mine has been doing that for weeks.

For some reason my always starts in Dallas

Then goes like yours when I go to my actual town 

 

:S

Edited February 23, 2018 by tomp456

[Southender]

The odd flake/grain is common in this setup. It’s just clearing it’s throat ahead of next week ?

[fatyido]

I have also enjoyed the amazing charts that have developed over recent days, and can't wait until the really cold air arrives. I'm just, however, not buying all the hype about the widespread heavy snow that will follow. At the beginning of the week, posts were saying, snow showers by Friday, then snow by Sunday. Then snow by Monday night, now I'm hearing snow by Thursday. The latest is snow may settle in places from the heavier showers. Sorry for the glum post in all the excitement, but until I see heavily falling snow and sub zero temps, I'm thinking we may all be getting slightly carried away with what we are hoping for, rather than what will actually materialise. Fingers crossed.

[warrenb]

It could be the feather from Forrest Gump

[tomp456]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

Snow showers gathering by Tuesday evening?

 

If that is right then the snow misses me by mere miles once again. 

If mother nature was a living thing, I might be doing some serious time in jail. 

[Flaked Queen]

Just now, tomp456 said:

Mine has been doing that for weeks.

For some reason my always starts in Dallas for some reason

Then goes like yours when I go to my actual town 

 

:S

If mine went to my home town ( Adelaide) I would be over the moon and sunning it up ( but would miss the mahoosiv , possible , deffo , maybe not , yes , no SNOW  

[Honey]

This looks good ?