South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[Karl83]

Just read the latest extended outlook from the Met Office. Sounds very good indeed!

Anyway... days like today are amazing for catching a good sunset. Thought I'd share last nights.... taken from Severn Beach.

 

 

[weirpig]

Really want you guys to see some snow. The icon is an improvement for Tuesday close to your region 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, Leon1 said:

so if we get nearer the time we might end up with a red warning, as the confidence becomes higher! lol i would love that but i think we'd get an amber at most

Not really that far away now either mate. Lets be honest though how many times in the past have we been let down. I remember chasing pink blobs on radars just for a dusting of snow and to think now we could be on the brink of something unheard of in recent years!

[Leon1]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Not really that far away now either mate. Lets be honest though how many times in the past have we been let down. I remember chasing pink blobs on radars just for a dusting of snow and to think now we could be on the brink of something unheard of in recent years!

stop you're making me get my hopes up so much!The Weather Channel/iOS weather/ Google have said on thursday there is potential for 15-30cm of snow overnight! 

Edited February 25, 2018 by Leon1

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, Karl83 said:

Just read the latest extended outlook from the Met Office. Sounds very good indeed!

I'm not sure how to interpret that? If it's cold & snow you like, then it is dreadful for those in the South.

[Karl83]

Just now, Mapantz said:

I'm not sure how to interpret that? If it's cold & snow you like, then it is dreadful for those in the South.

More bites at the cherry re: Easterly Winds.

[Jayfromcardiff]

2 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

stop you're making me get my hopes up so much!The Weather Channel/iOS weather/ Google have said on thursday there is potential for 15-30cm of snow overnight! 

I think we'll see more than 15cm, the sweet spot could max out at 30-40cm IMO.

[AWD]

12z ICON consistent with a rather tricky Friday morning commute for many;

Even by Friday afternoon, snow keeps falling on this run for many of us;

With the upper and surface level air still on the cold side;

 

Edited February 25, 2018 by AWD
More charts

[Mapantz]

Just now, Karl83 said:

More bites at the cherry re: Easterly Winds.

Waste of time for down here. It's turned on it's head in a short space of time as it is. I thought this coming week's episode was a great way to go out of Winter. Beyond that, I'm not interested in Easterlies.. You won't get a better one than what is coming this week and yet it'll whimper it's way out come Friday.

[Mark Parsons]

I dont remember one snow event that was predicted in this part of the world, even the blizzard of 78 came from no where, it was forecast to rain and it started as rain by the coast where i live, by the next morning you could walk along the top of the hedges the drifts were so high, so dont dismiss anything until it hasn't happened. 

[Isleofwightsnowgal74]

I do remember we had no warning on the iow several years ago then around 3pm we got one for a few hours time n it snowed like mad that evening sooo I guess u never know... 

[Jayfromcardiff]

I think many of us will be digging ourselves out if the snow chart verifies!

[Jayfromcardiff]

Think I need a lay down, bit too excited lol. It's all too good to be true for the end of the week.

[Summer Sun]

12z ICON keeps it all snow until 1pm on Friday for virtually all of the south and south-west

Could be a major event this would bring significant snow and blizzards possibly

Anything near the above coming to reality and Red warnings are not out the question

Edited February 25, 2018 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

Cloud eventually cleared becoming a very sunny afternoon but feeling very cold as the easterly wind increased gusting 35mph

[AWD]

This is better from the UKMO 12z;

Notice how the low is more elongated, meaning more disruption when hitting the colder UK air.

I don't need to see the 850hpa temp chart to suggest, away from Cornwall and southern coastal counties, this would be Blizzards for many.

T144;

Much different compared to the 0z T144 output.  Much better, although still with further improvements needed for some of us.

Edited February 25, 2018 by AWD

[khodds]

6 minutes ago, AWD said:

This is better from the UKMO 12z;

Notice how the low is more elongated, meaning more disruption when hitting the colder UK air.

I don't need to see the 850hpa temp chart to suggest, away from Cornwall and southern coastal town, this would be Blizzards for many.

T144;

Much different compared to the 0z T144 output.  Much better, although still with further improvements needed for some of us.

YESSSS!!!!!! Thank you for posting this - I haven’t been in the mad thread yet. 

[Mark Parsons]

6 minutes ago, AWD said:

This is better from the UKMO 12z;

Notice how the low is more elongated, meaning more disruption when hitting the colder UK air.

I don't need to see the 850hpa temp chart to suggest, away from Cornwall and southern coastal town, this would be Blizzards for many.

T144;

Much different compared to the 0z T144 output.  Much better, although still with further improvements needed for some of us.

I don' t think there is much to worry about tbh..........

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

0c isotherm is a bit close for comfort

 

Edited February 25, 2018 by SN0W SN0W SN0W

[AWD]

1 minute ago, Mark Parsons said:

I don' t think there is much to worry about tbh..........

Depends how far inland you are.  That's looking like being key.

Further improvements on the UKMO 12z output still needed for Cornwall & southern coastal counties.

For those up towards Bath, Bristol, Swindon etc, the UKMO 12z output is a good improvement for snowfall.

I'm just happy enough to see a big improvement away from it's 0z output.  Hopefully the low can track slightly further south still on future output.

[AWD]

3 minutes ago, SN0W SN0W SN0W said:

0c isotherm is a bit close for comfort

 

Anywhere on the 0c isotherm, northwards, would see snowfall, hence my comments about Cornwall & southern coastal towns needing further improvements.

Edited February 25, 2018 by AWD

[Leon1]

6 minutes ago, AWD said:

Anywhere on the 0c isotherm, northwards, would see snowfall, hence my comments about Cornwall & southern coastal towns needing further improvements.

noticed anything? THATS THE BLOODY M4!!!!! apart from that little dip towards where i live lol

Edited February 25, 2018 by Leon1

[khodds]

I’m no expert, but I’m feeling much more positive now. UKMO and Icon similar, GFS - too progressive, as some have said; dartboard low against that cold air?! Nope. Mogreps (by rumour) leading the way with UKMO and Icon... 

PARTY ON PEOPLE!!!

Yes. That’s a ramp. 

[AWD]

7 minutes ago, khodds said:

I’m no expert, but I’m feeling much more positive now. UKMO and Icon similar, GFS - too progressive, as some have said; dartboard low against that cold air?! Nope. Mogreps (by rumour) leading the way with UKMO and Icon... 

PARTY ON PEOPLE!!!

Yes. That’s a ramp. 

Definitely a positive start to the evening.  Like I said, further improvements still needed but at least we have started moving in the right direction.

[khodds]

Just now, AWD said:

Definitely a positive start to the evening.  Like I said, further improvements still needed but at least we have started moving in the right direction.

Yes. Have a feeling ECM will be ok too ??