South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[Mapantz]

Undeniable trend appearing in the forecasts, now. And, the GFS - it has an all rain event down here. Something else that has caught my eye, is how much the rain totals are beginning to increase on some of these runs.

[dancing daisy]

1 hour ago, OldBloke said:

Who is being a naysayer? All I'm doing is pointing out the actuality of what the weather is doing. I thought this was a weather forum. In any case, if you look back at a previous post of mine, I did say that if the expected low coming up from the south does not fill, then those in the southern Counties of England can expect some pretty good snow fall, which is what I was hoping for.

Woah my lovely did I say your name? No i didn’t. I was generalising so pop back in your pram ?

[Wilxy]

Looking more like a snow to rain event now hopefully it won't end up all rain not great trends!

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, tomjwlx said:

Looking more like a snow to rain event now hopefully it won't end up all rain not great trends!

I think we need more runs.. concerned yes but models all over the place at moment and need to forget and see how it goes next 2 days at least before we call off the snow blowers. 

[Frosty hollows]

20 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Humidity is rising...

 

Is your barometer getting low? 

No...

[Frosty hollows]

24 minutes ago, bellanite said:

Temp -1 DP -8.5! Humidity 55

That's a new dp record! ?

Top trump winner

[kent]

9 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I think we need more runs.. concerned yes but models all over the place at moment and need to forget and see how it goes next 2 days at least before we call off the snow blowers. 

I agree NK because its an unusual situation the models don't seem to know what to do with that low.  Everything is changing every 6 hours and its going to take another day or two.  I having lost hope.

[Mapantz]

@karlos1983 is at -8.6°C but it did get to -8.8°C

[matt111]

DP up to -5.5°C with the increase in humidity. Temp -0.6°C. 

[Mark Parsons]

29 minutes ago, OldBloke said:

Cheers Mark. Been around a long time on many forums. All in a days work so to speak.

However I'm sure you understand the youngsters have not had the experience of a major wide spread blizzard......I've been waiting 40 years to witness one as an adult , with global warming this maybe my last chance , so i am wishing but i am realistic also. I share your frustration with the posts we read buddy.......?

 

[Mark Parsons]

10 minutes ago, kent said:

I agree NK because its an unusual situation the models don't seem to know what to do with that low.  Everything is changing every 6 hours and its going to take another day or two.  I having lost hope.

It's the second warming messing it up , I'm sure.......

[jy]

Calm down ...the third warming will make it pelt down with snow lol

[Mark Parsons]

32 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Undeniable trend appearing in the forecasts, now. And, the GFS - it has an all rain event down here. Something else that has caught my eye, is how much the rain totals are beginning to increase on some of these runs.

Don't panic it's only Sunday mate.

[Mark Parsons]

1 minute ago, jy said:

Calm down ...the third warming will make it pelt down with snow lol

Hahaha that's the spirit ???

[Nights King]

5 minutes ago, Mark Parsons said:

It's the second warming messing it up , I'm sure.......

I have a feeling the bbc/met office will end up right and it will stall against block and slugishly move east.. 

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, Mark Parsons said:

Don't panic it's only Sunday mate.

No panic here. Just amusement from how quickly it all escalated. If i'm brutally honest, I can't stand snow to rain events. It happened during December 2010 and it was dreadful. I'd sooner have rain to snow, because snow intensity can rapidly overcome wet surfaces and even puddles.

[jethro]

2 hours ago, festivalking said:

I'd Have one round Glencoe in the winter and one on the outer Hebrides in the summer!

 I like my winters cold and my summers hot.

[Mark Parsons]

37 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Undeniable trend appearing in the forecasts, now. And, the GFS - it has an all rain event down here. Something else that has caught my eye, is how much the rain totals are beginning to increase on some of these runs.

We all know the GFS has a mild bias at the best of times, i never rate that model when the the weather patterns are abnormal.

[Dean E]

Just now, Mapantz said:

No panic here. Just amusement from how quickly it all escalated. If i'm brutally honest, I can't stand snow to rain events. It happened during December 2010 and it was dreadful. I'd sooner have rain to snow, because snow intensity can rapidly overcome wet surfaces and even puddles.

I remember this all too well. I remember the snow falling on a Wednesday evening, which stuck until the Friday evening. I remember recording one of the lowest temperatures I recorded at my station of -8c at around 9pm, By 11pm it was 5c and raining heavily.

Happens too many times in this location.

[Mapantz]

Just now, Dean E said:

I remember this all too well. I remember the snow falling on a Wednesday evening, which stuck until the Friday evening. I remember recording one of the lowest temperatures I recorded at my station of -8c at around 9pm, By 11pm it was 5c and raining heavily.

Happens too many times in this location.

Oh that's nothing! The rain came immediately after the first snowfall.

Here's the video: 

That was literally 10 - 15mins after the snow had stopped. A few hours later, there were just a few patches left on the grass etc

[dec10snow]

Just my two pennies worth, I’m only young but from experience a low up against a block is NEVER modelled correctly!

From the ones I can remember I have, December 2010, not that I’m sure on details, but the forecast was for the low to come across the British Isles, giving us snow all across the south and moving to the east. 

Reality? The front stalled over Somerset and I woke up the next day expecting a decent covering of snow, what I had was very heavy snow and a panic red warning from the met for Somerset!

Now we have Jan 2013, again an Atlantic low coming into a cold block, forecast was for rain to snow for me and although that was strictly true, the snow started about 6 hours ahead of schedule whilst the forecast was still reading rain! Not a great snowfall event, granted, as the conditions just weren’t cold enough for snow to stick around, so got a good layer but there was a lot of dripping!

Last one, March 2013....... Channel Islands getting buried, need I say more ?

Moral of the story, more often than not the block is underplayed in these scenarios and you get the sense the models don’t deal well with something so far from the norm!

[Dean E]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Oh that's nothing! The rain came immediately after the first snowfall.

Here's the video: 

That was literally 10 - 15mins after the snow had stopped. A few hours later, there were just a few patches left on the grass etc

Oh wow, I guess at least I got a few days worth!

What date was that?

[khodds]

Well my lovely southern folk; when we wake up tomorrow the fun time begins! And we all love a fun time don’t we?  

bloody hell. Why does it have to be Monday too?! ?

Night all... 

[Catacol]

A better day than yesterday. Just a chink suggesting the low will disrupt against the block and split east/west as per both UKMO and ECM. Rumours that this is the Mogreps solution also. GFS sticking with yesterday's scenario.

Not sure that we will know for sure until Tuesday if it will disrupt or not - but the trend today is decent. 

Incidentally - effective disruption of this kind would be the absolute gold plated scenario for the south. Might involve a bit of snow to rain and then back to snow - but overall it would give us the best possible chance of a blizzard and extensive lying snow through to next week. 

Such incredibly fine margins. Have never seen anything like it. Very bad for the nerves.

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, Dean E said:

Oh wow, I guess at least I got a few days worth!

What date was that?

20th December.

That's why December 2010 will never go down as a 'special one' unlike a lot of other folk on here. It was cold, but that was it. The true, ultimate blunder came in 2009. Dorset was put on a red warning for snow. There were folks out stocking up on essentials etc and while everyone was asleep, the red warning was removed and placed further East. We were still on an amber warning, but,  barely an inch of snow fell. For many years, you could still find the reports and even the images of the red warning. They suddenly disappeared a few years ago, and I can't find a trace of information, now.