North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I'm going for rain low ground but possibly turning to sleet and wet snow on the back edge of preciptation belt. Depending how heavy the preciptation determines how quick it turns to snow and hence accumulations. 

Its a difficult one this. I remember the start of the cold zonality of March 1995. It started off as rain then all of sudden there was a blast of ice pellets then straight into snow which started to stick when the precipitation was starting to clear.

20th March 1989, a bit like tomorrow. Front crossed through during the early afternoon, started off as rain but you could see it turning wintrier and wintrier and by late afternoon, it was snowing and sticking readily just before it cleared. 

Ties in well with the Warning

[Weather-history]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS bringng snow into the region thurs as well 

Pivots back and gives us a second bite at the cherry...

[northwestsnow]

As i mused earlier, altitude is going to be a key component tomorrow-

Not the only key component but if your below 150 m i worry its going to be a slog getting settling snow unfortunately..

[Spah1]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Pivots back and gives us a second bite at the cherry...

Good

[pip22]

Good news weather warning now includes all of England. Can't post a picture I'm on the phone ATM.

Edited January 28, 2019 by pip22

[northwestsnow]

Frosty Ground its looking amazing for you my friend- top of rippy road might be a tad hazardous tomorrow rush hour!!

I can see you getting about 5-10 cm tomorrow- my altitude perhaps 2 -4 cm at a rough guess..

 

[Snow free zone]

Personally at 24 hrs out I usually go with the met office forecasts - normally pretty accurate for here at least.  Despite what the GFS is showing, past experience suggests that the front on thurs will not make it here.

Tomorrow those nearer the coasts going to have to wait until the showers hopefully pop up later on in the night for a shot at some snow - pretty much standard stuff and nothing really out of the ordinary.  

[More Runs Needed]

Yellow warning issued, better than earlier anyway

Edited January 28, 2019 by Dkeane3

[cheshire snow]

Weather warning

Low ground rain to snow event 1-2cm some places will see no snow

200m 3-5cm with some localised places seeing 10cm

Wintry showers following giving further accumalation in places

C.S

 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, cheshire snow said:

Weather warning

Low ground rain to snow event 1-2cm some places will see no snow

200m 3-5cm with some localised places seeing 10cm

Wintry showers following giving further accumalation in places

C.S

 

Better than the last 'event', at least this time there is a warning, which is a good sign..

[More Runs Needed]

 MetO also going for wintry showers into Wednesday too!

[cheshire snow]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Better than the last 'event', at least this time there is a warning, which is a good sign..

All looks a bit Meh to me for low ground and areas near the coast shall see what happens but a cm of slush really does not float my boat 

C.S

[Deep Snow please]

26 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

It's like the myth that never dies 

I've seen an inch of rain followed by 2 inches of snow 

The snow has to be particularly heavy for that to happen in my experience though. It just settles the nerves to have an "all snow" event.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, cheshire snow said:

All looks a bit Meh to me for low ground and areas near the coast shall see what happens but a cm of slush really does not float my boat 

C.S

I tend to agree, but this will be a now cast mate- don't give up hope, obviously the further from the coast and with altitude will help tomorrow.

[swainclubber]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Frosty Ground its looking amazing for you my friend- top of rippy road might be a tad hazardous tomorrow rush hour!!

I can see you getting about 5-10 cm tomorrow- my altitude perhaps 2 -4 cm at a rough guess..

 

what are your thoughts on rochdale area pal?

[More Runs Needed]

Will be significant differences in weather depending on small differences in altitude, for the beginning of this event at least, will be fun to nowcast but spare a thought for those stuck at lower levels maybe we'll be pleasantly surprised though?

[cheshire snow]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I tend to agree, but this will be a now cast mate- don't give up hope, obviously the further from the coast and with altitude will help tomorrow.

LOL

50 miles from the coast and 20m ASL

See why i am not confident

C.S

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, swainclubber said:

what are your thoughts on rochdale area pal?

If your 150 m - 200 m then i think you will see a few cm - thats just my opinion, although its probably similar to what metoffice are suggesting..

[Day 10]

6 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

LOL

50 miles from the coast and 20m ASL

See why i am not confident

C.S

Since we're playing top trumps, I'm 1 mile from coast 15m above sea level 

[swainclubber]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If your 150 m - 200 m then i think you will see a few cm - thats just my opinion, although its probably similar to what metoffice are suggesting..

cheers buddy

[northwestsnow]

CS i suspect you will hit the jackpot thur while those around greater manchester will suffer the rain shadow..

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

CS i suspect you will hit the jackpot thur while those around greater manchester will suffer the rain shadow..

To be honest mate in my opinion  i think the Northwest is in prime postion for Thursdays event    still time for changes  but i would wax those sledges 

[Had Worse]

3 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Since we're playing top trumps, I'm 1 mile from coast 15m above sea level 

50 miles from sea inland 150+m in a valley in the Peak District. Every route out exceeds 250m so if your in .. your in and if your  out... your sleeping in the car.

[Day 10]

Must get back to work lol

[Had Worse]

200m rising to 400-500m in the afternoon. Falling to 200m around midnight

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/mountain-forecasts/peak-district

For Tuesday. ??