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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

If T96 is FI, I'd like to be starting that journey into the unknown from here. UKMO T96:

image.thumb.jpg.578254cce884b015e4ce3820a9f47799.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Just now, Spah1 said:

A816AB5D-BA6E-495E-AADB-F9938B77FD72.thumb.gif.89b2ed980a1e931e3b312082f0ac2088.gif

Block looks more robust next Thursday from UKMO 96hrs

In fact looks like a massive upgrade 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Surely no one actually thinks the block is going to hold and we are going to get a proper cold convective easterly ? Best case scenario is that the low slides under slightly more and there is colder air is ahead of it so we can get a snow event before the inevitable Atlantic period? We then look toward Xmas and beyond for blocking to set up 

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Just wondering if we will get a upgrade from UKMO? I think maybe yes in the shorter term anyway.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Surely no one actually thinks the block is going to hold and we are going to get a proper cold convective easterly ? Best case scenario is that the low slides under slightly more and there is colder air is ahead of it so we can get a snow event before the inevitable Atlantic period? We then look toward Xmas and beyond for blocking to set up 

Agreed

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

If T96 is FI, I'd like to be starting that journey into the unknown from here. UKMO T96:

image.thumb.jpg.578254cce884b015e4ce3820a9f47799.jpg

Chart of the day so far that at T96, brilliant stuff!:drunk:

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
On 05/12/2018 at 16:34, frosty ground said:

 

Nice westward correction on the 12z GFS compared to the 6z

Screenshot_20181209-154950.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

As early as T72 on the 12z GFS there is a noticeable shift Westwards..

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

If T96 is FI, I'd like to be starting that journey into the unknown from here. UKMO T96:

image.thumb.jpg.578254cce884b015e4ce3820a9f47799.jpg

That is mad . Loving that UKMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Surely no one actually thinks the block is going to hold and we are going to get a proper cold convective easterly ? Best case scenario is that the low slides under slightly more and there is colder air is ahead of it so we can get a snow event before the inevitable Atlantic period? We then look toward Xmas and beyond for blocking to set up 

No, I don't think so, the question is can we squeeze a snow event out of this before the Atlantic comes through.  Longer term, look out for height rises in the Atlantic drawing down a northerly, looks the form horse to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

52200D50-9BBF-43F0-AD15-A5CF1E8897D2.thumb.gif.d1dad58e1bde43d16b2b0542072a4dd5.gif

UKMO 120hrs

No Atlantic yet

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

52200D50-9BBF-43F0-AD15-A5CF1E8897D2.thumb.gif.d1dad58e1bde43d16b2b0542072a4dd5.gif

UKMO 120hrs

No Atlantic yet

Bloody hell John . What an upgrade

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

52200D50-9BBF-43F0-AD15-A5CF1E8897D2.thumb.gif.d1dad58e1bde43d16b2b0542072a4dd5.gif

UKMO 120hrs

No Atlantic yet

Looks like a chilly chart does that! A shift towards the 00z ECM :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
5 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Just wondering if we will get a upgrade from UKMO? I think maybe yes in the shorter term anyway.

C

Real up grade this run at 120t. Would love to  see the 850mb flow temps.

UW120-21.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Surely no one actually thinks the block is going to hold and we are going to get a proper cold convective easterly ? Best case scenario is that the low slides under slightly more and there is colder air is ahead of it so we can get a snow event before the inevitable Atlantic period? We then look toward Xmas and beyond for blocking to set up 

spot on!

The jet is too powerful and, unless the energy goes under, we are looking at a wet and potentially windy period of weather for 7-10 days, i think

Edited by pdiddy
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

Some realism for any newbies

HP is holding off the Atlantic but a strong bitter Easterly isn't on the cards , the most favourable option is something from the West eventually with average temps IMO of course 

UKMO 144 has the Atlantic held off so a chilly breeze from Europe .

 

gfs-1-84.png

gfs-1-90.png

Edited by Banbury
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
7 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

In fact looks like a massive upgrade 

It is. 12z V 06z at T84.

 Cold air is into eastern areas on this run.

gfs-1-84.png

gfs-1-90.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Huge differences between the GFS and UKMO at T96!!

UKMO

UKMO96.thumb.gif.e1e4767ebb064d4a6cfc478dc494ad54.gif

GFS

951449735_GFS.thumb.png.a0a425325afa1c476a706c5198a10173.png

That's actually quite extraordinary..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

UN144-21.GIF?09-16

 

HmmMMm block still holding 144, heights into Greenland.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Huge differences between the GFS and UKMO at T96!!

UKMO

UKMO96.thumb.gif.e1e4767ebb064d4a6cfc478dc494ad54.gif

GFS

951449735_GFS.thumb.png.a0a425325afa1c476a706c5198a10173.png

That's actually quite extraordinary..

And GEM now too at T96!

gemnh-0-96.png

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

50C12253-C776-496E-A5F4-EBE4D461C7F4.thumb.gif.ee34c77e1bcf53d36ceedb809ba6908f.gif

Still no Atlantic 144hrs UKMO!!!

Ridiculous

Edited by Spah1
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