The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Cheshire Freeze]

Oh boy...all aboard

[Duane S.]

Nice 18z so far. Unlike the 12z, we have a cutoff Arctic High. It looks like the Azore High got fed up waiting for that tedious Icelandic system to fill and decided to ridge up and give it a hand. That will do nicely 

[Mike Poole]

Pub run T348

Now this is promising. But the earlier part of the run was, that's the point.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Oh boy...all aboard

Yes - this is exactly where we need the high to sustain for a bit - then game on rest of winter.

[Tim Bland]

Slightly better cold pool to the east this time around ! ...

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

The back end of FI mirrors the seasonals in terms of HP and trough placement...which is very very good to see as it means it's not so pie in the sky!

[Mucka]

Obviously the deep FI blocking grabs the eye but there are much more concrete signs of blocking returning second week of December with the start gun being an Arctic/Scandi high being modelled to form in around 8 to 10 days, this then looking likely to be reinforced by an Atlantic ridge in he 10 to 12 day time frame.

This has the potential to be a much stronger blocking pattern than one we have just come out of but of course that was looking good for a while before it just fell short.

Let's see if the arctic high is consistently modelled tomorrow and look for the all important Atlantic ridge to come into ECM range and then it is all aboard the hype train once more.  

 

[Duane S.]

Fascinating looking chart this one, really unusual looking. In a good way.

I like the way the vortex jettisoned a slider in from one direction and a cold pool in from the other towards us. Just to make sure 

 

[Nick F]

31 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Forgive the naivety of this question but how does that compare to 2009 where a very zonal spell in mid November acted as a trigger to much colder conditions about 10 days later?

Very similar evolution back in early Dec 2009 compared to how the 18z evolves, Atlantic in full swing before Atlantic trough slows and digs down over Azores, upper ridge builds north out of Iberia as a result - which eventually leads to a Scandi high, all in the space of five days as charts between 9th Dec 09 and 13th Dec 09 show:

[CanadaAl]

5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Very similar evolution back in early Dec 2009 compared to how the 18z evolves, Atlantic in full swing before Atlantic trough slows and digs down over Azores, upper ridge builds north out of Iberia as a result - which eventually leads to a Scandi high, all in the space of five days as charts between 9th Dec 09 and 13th Dec 09 show:

You read my mind nick, I was thinking the same thing. I remember it only being picked up 5 or so days before 

[northwestsnow]

18z is along the lines of what i was hoping for and hence my disappointment of the meto update which is suggestive of a mid lat block sinking longer term..

Haven't seen any post from the eps etc so no idea how much traction 18 z potentially has..

[Allseasons-Si]

I like the evolution the 18z gfs gives as it ties in with the latest cpc 6-10/8-14 day outlook with actic the high and the Azures high ridging from the S/SW,how amplified this pattern gets is yet to be resolved but a step in the right direction

the NAO/AO are uncertain as to where we are heading at the moment but i would suspect some more neg values in the next few days if this signal will gain momentum

we need to clear some of the zonal zyphers first to see a clearer signal,lets see how we go on in the next few days

AAM on the rise again,which is what we wan't.

 

 

Edited November 25, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Ventnor Viking]

As its only one run I'm not going to get to over excited. I have a feeling the 0z will bring us back down with a bump.

Nice to look at though.....

[Allseasons-Si]

And we keep on seeing attacks of a warming from the Siberian side on the latest gfs.

[Allseasons-Si]

JMA.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

JMA.

Quite a substantial warming on JMA !!

Fergies tweet on the other thread a bit meh, clearly the pros not expecting anything  until 'possibly' late winter, feb perhaps?

[matt111]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Fergies tweet on the other thread a bit meh, clearly the pros not expecting anything  until 'possibly' late winter, feb perhaps?

Maybe so but that tweet is over a month old. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, matt111 said:

Maybe so but that tweet is over a month old. 

Oh, thanks Matt i guessed it was a 'new' one.

Thanks for clarifying

[northwestsnow]

Certainly nice to have JMA on board with the strat warming, OK its probably not enough to be classed as en event but i wouldn't have thought it will do us any harm..

[Allseasons-Si]

The control run ends on a high note,lets see if this theme continues.

get those lower height's into mainland Europe and we stand a chance.

[blizzard81]

I fear we are on a bit of a merry dance here again - like the last 6 or 7 winters. Cold potential being put back a couple of weeks at a time. Mid December becomes late December, becomes mid January and so on. Just my gut feeling at the moment. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The control run ends on a high note,lets see if this theme continues.

get those lower height's into mainland Europe and we stand a chance.

Looking at GEFS i would suggest 4/5th December is a critical juncture, a lot of scatter as perhaps one could expect

Fingers crossed we see some upgrades tomorrow !!

[Allseasons-Si]

9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I fear we are on a bit of a merry dance here again - like the last 6 or 7 winters. Cold potential being put back a couple of weeks at a time. Mid December becomes late December, becomes mid January and so on. Just my gut feeling at the moment. 

I know what you are saying,we say the same every winter

we always say it's only november then it's only December and before you know it it's only January then we say we still have time left when it's Feb/March

winter does fly by in my opinion.

Edited November 26, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[swfc]

Didn't see the 18z gFS run but just viewed it.the 6z looks a bit  flat and quite away from lasts night in via the ridging 

[Ventnor Viking]

6 hours ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

As its only one run I'm not going to get to over excited. I have a feeling the 0z will bring us back down with a bump.

Nice to look at though.....

There's that bump