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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

the behaviour of arctic heights is a fickle thing to predict ..... I doubt the ec op will do us many favours late on as the complete vortex split leaves a lot of the Canadian with nowhere to go but ‘spew’ itself into the Atlantic ..... we need the n Pacific/Alaskan ridge to have less latitude, allowing the East Asian sector to draw some of the Canadian nw towards it .  be interesting to see what high res does with the split  though - a full on fella might be fun in the longer term ......

EDIT: we could work with day 10 moving forward as the Pacific side looks like closing up and the Alaskan ridge has punched a huge wedge of additional heights into the equation which will help in time ........

Edited by bluearmy
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

Happy with the bigger picture in the latter stages of the 00z ECM. A nice lowering of heights into Europe and a split and smashed up vortex. 

ECH1-240.gif

114.jpg

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
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Posted (edited)

Morning all. Really dark and snowy this morning. Glad to be back in the colder airmass. Snow now building. Looking at the ECM/UKMO latest run holds some encouragement this morning for cold fans compared to the weekend and American models. However, all seem to again to be underestimating the resilience of the block out east with Atlantic lows being not pushing away the block and fronts stalling as they try to get into Europe and Scandinavia with possible disruption on the cards.. Will get an update with thoughts from over here in a couple of hours.

 C

Edited by carinthian
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted
54 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Incidentally, the ec op at day 10 is pretty well bang on the money wrt the mean eps anomolys at day 10

Given the expected upstream changes triggered by MJO over WPO/EPO region along with wave no. 2 forcing, I'd say justified confidence in pattern change back to blocking through week 2 of December after a week or so mobile/ unsettled/ mild Atlantic weather, though the models are to-ing and fro-ing over where to build the block. No guarantees of course.

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booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted (edited)

Gfs gets rid of the Arctic high this morning really hope this appears in the next runs as this could be a big player for the chase for proper cold last night run show this nicely with the link up with highs compared to this morning run.

Has all season models flipped for a mild winter i seen twitt about states mild Dec-Feb wonder what this would hold for us???

gfsnh-0-240 (1).png

gfsnh-0-384 (2).png

gfsnh-0-240.png

gfsnh-0-384.png

Screenshot_20181126-090930_Chrome.jpg

Edited by booferking
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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

After having a little break, doesn’t look like too much has changed. A retreat from the models clearly didn’t work (lol). Looks as though that evil thing - the Atlantic - will be breaking through from tomorrow bringing wind and rain to places.

5F57B129-52E7-4CF9-89B3-71F0D95C7CB8.thumb.jpeg.53390be2960acb05605e5852b8f77198.jpeg

AEB7FEB9-0075-4246-A19D-7C85F9AA2C40.thumb.jpeg.c34c9abd85df93127727671a85d519a0.jpeg

They’ll be no escape!

Worst of the conditions would likely be over North-Western parts where the devilish Lows will be in the most control.

I suppose not so evil, however, if you’re someone who hates the cold and prefers the Atlantic. Plus, at least in the nearer term, it looks like a mixture of Tropical Maritime and Polar Maritime flows - the latter particularly true as Lows try to get a little further East and bring in some chillier air from the West or North-West at times with wintry showers over Northern hills. 

 

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted (edited)

season models flipped to mild Dec, anniversary of snow showing the opposite to last year on 00Z GFS, at least looks dry though in deep FI,

gfs-0-324.png

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

season models flipped to mild Dec, anniversary of snow showing the opposite to last year on 00Z GFS, at least looks dry though in deep FI,

gfs-0-324.png

The seasonal models haven’t run for Dec yet ??????

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The seasonal models haven’t run for Dec yet ??????

Think Ians being a bit mischievious!!

Fairly happy with EC this morning..certainly very different to GFS.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
22 minutes ago, booferking said:

Climate models then???

Screenshot_20181126-090930_Chrome.jpg

Climate models? 

No idea what he is on about - hopefully isn’t referencing the CFSv2 to back up his arguement !!

anyway, this time next week we will hopefully have sight of the updated ec seasonal ..... it backed away somewhat for me euro cold on the November issue but we saw the met office model head in the opposite direction. 

 

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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think Ians being a bit mischievious!!

Fairly happy with EC this morning..certainly very different to GFS.

EDH101-240.GIF?26-12

 

Aren't splits like these often precursors to ssws? 

 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

EDH101-240.GIF?26-12

 

Aren't splits like these often precursors to ssws? 

 

Not sure ... looking forward to hearing from GP hopefully over the next day or two ..

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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not sure ... looking forward to hearing from GP hopefully over the next day or two ..

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2009GL038776

 

Was what I was referring to, it seems that most splits were preceded by some form of pacific blocking but I of course don't know how often pacific blocks happen

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

EDH101-240.GIF?26-12

 

Aren't splits like these often precursors to ssws? 

 

It's usually the opposite, you have the SSW then trop PV splits. But it can happen especially if the PV is already week from blocking in the trop.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not sure ... looking forward to hearing from GP hopefully over the next day or two ..

 

27 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

EDH101-240.GIF?26-12

 

Aren't splits like these often precursors to ssws? 

 

I'm confused if the above Mean is good or not? on one hand it looks great to our North East, however  will it all to no avail with those  heights to our south and us sitting in no-mans land?

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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted
29 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

It's usually the opposite, you have the SSW then trop PV splits. But it can happen especially if the PV is already week from blocking in the trop.

From what I understood an initial blocking event can lead to a ssw, which in turn can lead to much more blocking later on 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

What would the run-up to Mammonmass be, without a good old Euro-tease?

Netweather GFS Image

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