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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Ok if someone can post the t336 chart on GFS (p)......my IPad and Netweather aren’t getting on.  That is SNOWMAGEDDON, bitter deep cold from eats, Atlantic LP hitting and sliding.....perfection.  There seems to be a little momentum gathering here, it starts with the second LP following the first storm, signs of elongation and disruption with Atlantic ridge developing behind and UKMO t144 shows it nicely....this will lead to futher disruption and the opportunity for the  ridge to link up into Scandi......after GFS 00z horror show....what a recovery.  Like I said....I anticipate it to be a blip mild incursion....although my ‘main event ‘ remains over Xmas.....but that will require the cold theme to be very much in evidence even if it’s on and off.....and prevalent

 

BFTP

gfsnh-0-336_upt2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Got a feeling that low that has sprung up in the central Atlantic will be more foe than friend going forward. 

ECH1-168 (3).gif

And there you go. Atlantic spoiler pumping up the iberian heights. Ecm is very good at picking out such features. Let's hope it's got this one wrong. 

ECH1-192 (2).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM building the bomb into the Arctic at T168:

image.thumb.jpg.214b3501c7db77b4e9800e6995c6b687.jpg

It goes off bang on schedule at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.fc5f12791c418e3b9a79aa22e172c40b.jpg

Where will the pieces fall on this run?

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
1 hour ago, The Eagle said:

ECM is your friend. 

 

If it's not on board, i'm not on board. 1f641.png

It isn't Eddie

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Some simply stunning nor-hem profiles on view today!!!!

With such synptics...there will BE NO ESCAPING-cold spillage to the mid latts!!!

ECH1-192 (1).gif

Blimey I wish I was your bookie - I'd make a fortune!

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM building the bomb into the Arctic at T168:

image.thumb.jpg.214b3501c7db77b4e9800e6995c6b687.jpg

It goes off bang on schedule at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.fc5f12791c418e3b9a79aa22e172c40b.jpg

We had a similar situation with a split tpv with one lobe in Siberia and one in Canada almost a year before but after that split the vortex quickly reorganized and came back with a vengeance for the next 8 weeks 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=31&month=11&year=2017&hour=18&type=era&map=1&type=era&region=nh&mode=0

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
1 hour ago, mulzy said:

Let's agree to disagree!

If we can't have cold and snow then sunny and dry is the next best option.  Wet and windy is horrible!!

Particularly so in the heart of Winter, late December through to early February. Oh, the horrific memories of the thirty-nine (yes, it was 39) Atlantic depressions that most of the UK endured from October through to March I think it was, back in 2013/14. Please no, no, never again and I don't even live on the coast. 

That recent winter!

The above reason is precisely why I'm firmly in the traditional cold but crisp or snowy camp and probably always will be, plus the memories of the late 80s and most of the 1990s haunt me too.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

JMA similar theme but different route

JN192-21.GIF?26-12

 

ECM I think should have more undercut from 168 but main thing is to keep blocking signal into the reliable.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Obviously ECM finer detail to be resolved & looks a bit messy-

However I challenge anyone to find a chart in any winter year that looks like this -

C85AFFE0-C346-4F97-BCA5-D51052646E5B.thumb.png.d8a12e59609d203bf521e772274338f2.png

Not sure i have seen anything like it, if you wanted a euro/scandi/arctic block, there you go.

Nice to also see you are more consistent than the models, Steve (battery levels).

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Particularly so in the heart of Winter, late December through to early February. Oh, the horrific memories of the thirty-nine (yes, it was 39) Atlantic depressions that most of the UK endured from October through to March I think it was, back in 2013/14. Please no, no, never again and I don't even live on the coast. 

That recent winter!

The above reason is precisely why I'm firmly in the traditional cold but crisp or snowy camp and probably always will be, plus the memories of the late 80s and most of the 1990s haunt me too.

That winter was indeed an 'oddity'...It was the only one I can ever remember, in which there was more thunder than snow!

If the current model-runs come to fruition though...it'll be snow, snow and more snow!:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Obviously ECM finer detail to be resolved & looks a bit messy-

However I challenge anyone to find a chart in any winter year that looks like this -

C85AFFE0-C346-4F97-BCA5-D51052646E5B.thumb.png.d8a12e59609d203bf521e772274338f2.png

@bluearmy Will you get AO values for the Op run???

Ok I've seen much worse charts but the uk is not in a great position there to be honest. Atlantic still ruling the roost going forward. 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
4 minutes ago, booferking said:

As pretty as ecm looks in arctic and to are east it just keeps barreling low after low through the uk/ireland. Wet wet????

Indeed. It showed some promise earlier on but the later frames leave a lot to be desired.

ECH1-240.gif

Edited by blizzard81
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
30 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Much better output tonight so far. Look at the difference between these two ecm charts for the 1st Dec. The first from Saturday's 12z at t168 and the second from tonight's 12z at t120. A vast improvement there for us coldies going forward. 

ECH1-168 (2).gif

ECH1-120 (1).gif

Ah, those weekend model suite wobbles strike again and again. The trend is our friend and despite not following the model runs myself, I am happy to go with the consensus that the 2nd week of December is where coldies should be focussing their attention, even if it is purely a dry cool/cold settled spell to kick things off. The 10-day plus forecasts on the BBC news channel which I tend to watch religiously should start picking up on such signals later into the week, with cold weather getting a mention again.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
40 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Obviously ECM finer detail to be resolved & looks a bit messy-

However I challenge anyone to find a chart in any winter year that looks like this -

C85AFFE0-C346-4F97-BCA5-D51052646E5B.thumb.png.d8a12e59609d203bf521e772274338f2.png

@bluearmy Will you get AO values for the Op run???

-4 at day 9 steve

funnily enough that’s marginally below what we measured yesterday !

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Just a quick question here, we lately keep having Northern Hemisphere patterns in November that depict a weak vortex, then going into December, the low heights still seem to emerge (very very weakly) in the wrong place (Greenland) and on the face of it it still looks like we should be optimistic about the future, and when anyone questions or calls a mild December they get rounded on and get called, trolls, yet we keep having mild or average Decembers and indeed the 2 on the bounce in 09 and 10 were comparative outliers compared to the last 20 years and even the 80's, how many more of these 'The blocking is going to happen in xx week of December' type winters are we going to have before actually the 'less knowledgeable' people who call these non-event Decembers are actually given some credit and the 'experts' that keep referring to the PV being weak will actually admit that forecasting comes down to one thing - results not methodology.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

-4 at day 9 steve

funnily enough that’s marginally below what we measured yesterday !

Blue, When you read it he does only mention a chart in winter of any year that looks like that, not the potency of it.

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