The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Stuie]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Is that a 1060mb Siberian high on EC tonight??

If so that is absolutely huge !!

 

It is alongside the yearly Russian 1050mb.

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

After several days of Spam the GFS has moved on to something a lot more palatable.

The evolution is something we’ve seen many times with the high being sucked north and a shortwave cutting back sw through Scandi .

The issue is always trying to get the direct hit of cold uppers. 

That’s still a way ahead though . Let’s just hope the ECM doesn’t dish out Spam tonight !

 

 

Agreed Nick, a nice evolution.

The GFS Para isn't bad either.

However I see the ECM has chosen another path.

Looking past the Atlantic gunk, my interest is mid-longer range at the mo. Will be interesting if the 18z follows anything like the above or not.

[SMU]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

-4 at day 9 steve

funnily enough that’s marginally below what we measured yesterday !

Cheers-

I would rather the GFS - GFS P version which also alligns more favourable with the JMA evolution-

Atlantic ridge to seal the deal...

[blizzard81]

21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

But you keep making the same mistake over & over - taking every operationals at face value & assuming thats exactly what will happen.. The forecast will be a blend into the cleanest evolution - not the mess the ECM has whipped up-

My comments are based on the model output in general including the means. Ecm and gfs day 9 means look hardly inspiring to me. 

[Spah1]

I hope the mods will allow this. 

I’ve always wondered if you guys know each other outside of here and have ever all met up and had a beer. Or are you all just friends on here without actually ever meeting. 

Just curious. 

Edited November 26, 2018 by Spah1

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Blue, When you read it he does only mention a chart in winter of any year that looks like that, not the potency of it.

He asked @bluearmy what the AO value was on the day 9 chart , because he has access to that data mate . 

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

He asked @bluearmy what the AO value was on the day 9 chart , because he has access to that data mate . 

I have never been great at reading the small print... (under image) Cheers mate and apologies Blue (or anyone). 

[cheeky_monkey]

what i have noticed is the amount of -40 850 hpa showing up...looking at the archives that is almost unheard of even in the depths of winter let alone early Dec..there seems to be  lot of very cold air in the NH this year.

Edited November 26, 2018 by cheeky_monkey

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

I hope the mods will allow this. 

I’ve always wondered if you guys know each other outside of here and have ever all met up and had a beer or just checked me friends on here over the years without actually ever meeting. 

Just curious. 

That would be a brilliant weekend away would that.. can see it now a premier inn stuffed full of weather junkies. we could throw toys at each other when it goes wrong and then get the beers in when it goes right.. 

[northwestsnow]

Vortex looks pretty split by day 9 on the EC mean -

[mulzy]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Is that a 1060mb Siberian high on EC tonight??

If so that is absolutely huge !!

By day 10 i predict Atlantic energy to start splitting..

Models are notoriously bad at handling Arctic highs - take anything after day 5 with a pinch of salt (even more than normal!)

[Mike Poole]

7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

So the 2 clusters in FI are basically rolex then? and you're saying there should be 51 clusters of 1 member (obviously an exaggerated way of putting it)

This apt description of the position after the 0z runs, suggesting it hadn't got a clue, is very unlikely to apply to tonight's ECM ensembles, here T216:

Also illustrates well given the uncertainty in the op runs on where the heights will build initially, the highest probability would be in that light blue channel.

[SMU]

Day 9 ECM mean is about as close to the FV3/GFS/JMA blend as you can get-

Nice ! Expect some nice peachy cold ens clusters later!

& the anomalies- huge -AO + Split vortex & cross polar high with the atlantic +Ve anomaly the last to show in the 3 wave pattern...

 

 

Edited November 26, 2018 by Steve Murr

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

This apt description of the position after the 0z runs, suggesting it hadn't got a clue, is very unlikely to apply to tonight's ECM ensembles, here T216:

Also illustrates well given the uncertainty in the op runs on where the heights will build initially, the highest probability would be in that light blue channel.

Too far North too affect us in the near term - but still pressure the PV bit by bit - increasing through - Look high up in December - January the best bet for Northern blocking this winter.

[Don]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Too far North too affect us in the near term - but still pressure the PV bit by bit - increasing through - Look high up in December - January the best bet for Northern blocking this winter.

I would happily take a mildish December in return for a stonking January/February.

[bluearmy]

The extended eps look like they are likely to deliver more than the 2 clusters we saw earlier ..... or the spread is so vast it may give up and just generate the one ! 

Edited November 26, 2018 by bluearmy

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

I would happily take a mildish December in return for a stonking January/February.

Me too!!

Although bitter experience will increase conerns..

I thoughts tonights EC mean looked decent at day 9 but a bit meh by 10..

I suspect we are going to need the brakes to be applied in the Atlantic to allow for a crucial Azores high movement west of the UK, we dont want any emerging Azores high ridging to our East, that would be a symptom of the jet being too fast/strong .. 

Edited November 26, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Mike Poole]

Having now had time to digest all the 12z output, I'd like to make some more general comments about the model output.  It is not worth getting hung up on individual runs at this stage.  The big win is this:
On recent runs, up to this mornings 0z, almost all runs were screaming zonal Atlantic rubbish, this always looked an overreaction to the peculiar circumstances that had brought the Atlantic jet into play tomorrow (!)
On the 12z suite, all models are going for some kind of massive blocking pattern over the NH as a whole, a development of the Arctic high possibility that has been evident in FI for a while. 
At this stage I'm not too concerned where this blocking is, and whether it delivers cold to the UK, so I'm not concerned by the ECM for example.  This will be resolved in future runs, hasn't tonight's runs been enough of an upgrade?  
And all the time lurking above (is it possible to lurk above?!),is a stratospheric vortex under assault....

Edited November 26, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Met4Cast]

The Mars landing was succesful so good news tonight there, can't wait to see some high-resolution images!

Extended EPS.. well, absolutely no strong signal for where the blocking will be whatsoever, however there's a signal for low heights stretching from Portugal, right through the Med to basically Asia..

[stodge]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The Mars landing was succesful so good news tonight there, can't wait to see some high-resolution images!

Extended EPS.. well, absolutely no strong signal for where the blocking will be whatsoever, however there's a signal for low heights stretching from Portugal, right through the Med to basically Asia..

I suspect while most on here will be hoping for high-level blocking over Scandinavia I suspect we may finish up with the HP right over the British Isles so cold, frosty and foggy conditions under a mid-winter inversion but no snow.

[Met4Cast]

Just now, stodge said:

I suspect while most on here will be hoping for high-level blocking over Scandinavia I suspect we may finish up with the HP right over the British Isles so cold, frosty and foggy conditions under a mid-winter inversion but no snow.

Problem is unless a particular solution has strong ensemble support, the signal in the extended EPS is always going to be somewhat muted just because of the range, it is a 51 ensemble suite after all!

What's encouraging is the consistent signal in the extended for lower heights through Europe/Med - Given the range of blocking we're seeing on the Op runs alone, it's not a massive surprise the signal is massively diluted when it comes to ensemble means

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

well  looking better in f1  now deff  some cold heading our way   about dec 10 onward !

[Ventnor Viking]

42 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Too far North too affect us in the near term - but still pressure the PV bit by bit - increasing through - Look high up in December - January the best bet for Northern blocking this winter.

Exactly what I said and what I was thinking......

[bluearmy]

Euro troughing will probably remain the conundrum as we head through week 2 ......I don’t trust the extended ens (all models) in this regard ..... the tail and the donkey remain the best forecasting tool for the time being ........

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Shaftesbury Snow said:

Exactly what I said and what I was thinking......

Although its probably best not to though.