The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Ec not letting this Arctic high go- now at 192 and starting to have an impact perhaps..

Looks good if you happen to live in the far N of Norway...

Though I'm liking the look of HP ridging up towards the UK...if we can't have snowy, I'd rather have it not rainy and damp right now.

[Mike Poole]

All roads lead somewhere. For our purposes, I think the likely destination is the Arctic high, ECM here T192 and T216:

This puts the cat among the pigeons for later, I think! 

 

Edited November 25, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Cheshire Freeze]

America getting their annual dose of -16 uppers whilst we receive our annual +8s

Edited November 25, 2018 by CreweCold

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

America getting their annual dose of -16 uppers whilst we receive our annual +8s

I've long since given up being bitter about this. The fact is the central /eastern US very often get cold /very cold winters whether the UK experiences them or not. All simply down to location I'm afraid. 

[Zesyph]

12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

America getting their annual dose of -16 uppers whilst we receive our annual +8s

I've only been model watching for a few months (since the beast from the east) but I've learned how frustrating it can be seeing these charts every winter. Cold uppers all the way down to Texas impressive.  

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Zesyph said:

I've only been model watching for a few months (since the beast from the east) but I've learned how frustrating it can be seeing these charts every winter. Cold uppers all the way down to Texas impressive.  

People say it's about location...but not sure I agree 100%. America has a large coastline facing out towards the Pacific Ocean yet they can still get frigid uppers pushing a long way south. It's not just about ocean vs landmass it's about where troughing is repeatedly dropping and where ridging is setting up. Over the past decade we're seeing the trough dropping repeatedly a long way S over there. There is no reason why we couldn't see the same thing happening here...but we just don't for whatever reason.

The only perfectly aligned trough dropping over the UK in recent memory was December 2010...and that brought us some of the conditions we would expect with such a set up...

Edited November 25, 2018 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

People say it's about location...but not sure I agree 100%. America has a large coastline facing out towards the Pacific Ocean yet they can still get frigid uppers pushing a long way south. It's not just about ocean vs landmass it's about where troughing is repeatedly dropping and where ridging is setting up. Over the past decade we're seeing the trough dropping repeatedly a long way S over there. There is no reason why we couldn't see the same thing happening here...but we just don't for whatever reason.

It is landmass though - to the North.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

It is landmass though - to the North.

The only thing that the landmass to the N would promote is a preservation of the coldest uppers. What I'm talking about is actual troughing (or PV lobe) if you want to be rudimentary about it. December 2010 saw it drop directly over us, perfectly aligned...America seems to get this every year and it's more about trough and ridge placement.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It is landmass though - to the North.

Yes - I would have thought that makes a huge difference 

[ArHu3]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It is landmass though - to the North.

And the Rocky mountains, directly on the west coast it is mostly like our weather but that strip is too small to show up on the hemisphere view

[bluearmy]

Just now, CreweCold said:

The only thing that the landmass to the N would promote is a preservation of the coldest uppers. What I'm talking about is actual troughing (or PV lobe) if you want to be rudimentary about it. December 2010 saw it drop directly over us, perfectly aligned...America seems to get this every year and it's more about trough and ridge placement.

It isn’t just about landmass not moderating uppers Aaron .....

 the huge area of sea to our north and northwest is relatively warm and that surely affects the physics in the atmosphere above ...... east Pacific ridging is commonplace and forces a deep downstream trough ...... we don’t get mean Atlantic ridging that sustains in the same way 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The only thing that the landmass to the N would promote is a preservation of the coldest uppers. What I'm talking about is actual troughing (or PV lobe) if you want to be rudimentary about it. December 2010 saw it drop directly over us, perfectly aligned...America seems to get this every year and it's more about trough and ridge placement.

but if we were to get the latitude it drops to in America repeated over here it would take it into the med, the reason it doesnt make it over here is once the frigid uppers travel over a warm sea, a shortwave develops and cuts off the flow and it ends up spilling into the Atlantic, how many times did the West bases - NAO occur last year to snatch it off us.

[weathergeek]

34 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

America getting their annual dose of -16 uppers whilst we receive our annual +8s

Yes my friend in Boston has already posted pics on facebook of lovely snow!!! I clicked on the angry face and carried on scrolling!!! (I didn't really, haha!!) So jealous though!! I know people talk of snow in winter here but to me, nothing is more special than snow in the build up to Christmas and/or a White Christmas. I've had snow since Dec 2010 but that year is locked in my mind for how Christmassy it felt!!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It isn’t just about landmass not moderating uppers Aaron .....

 the huge area of sea to our north and northwest is relatively warm and that surely affects the physics in the atmosphere above ...... east Pacific ridging is commonplace and forces a deep downstream trough ...... we don’t get mean Atlantic ridging that sustains in the same way 

Of course, but then it could be argued, even within this context, that they have had more than their fair share of favourable set ups over recent years. I could agree with you more if we'd been seeing general set ups conducive to cold over here but by and large we haven't. Traditionally, there have been winters where we are favourable for cold and the USA bakes under unusual warmth. These scenarios seem very few and far between lately.

[feb1991blizzard]

Another theory i have Aaron is that lately we seem to have high SSTs in the North Pacific - the PDO region if you like, promoting high pressure in W USA so the trough drops so low in E USA, then fires up the Jet to prevent us getting similar over here.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

but if we were to get the latitude it drops to in America repeated over here it would take it into the med, the reason it doesnt make it over here is once the frigid uppers travel over a warm sea, a shortwave develops and cuts off the flow and it ends up spilling into the Atlantic, how many times did the West bases - NAO occur last year to snatch it off us.

Yes, I completely agree. However, my point is more that we're not even seeing the set ups (ridge placements) favourable to UK cold recently. It's a rut year after year of it being favourable for the USA but not here. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another theory i have Aaron is that lately we seem to have high SSTs in the North Pacific - the PDO region if you like, promoting high pressure in W USA so the trough drops so low in E USA, then fires up the Jet to prevent us getting similar over here.

Yes, I have a feeling this is something to do with it...and is more allied to the point I was trying to make.

I also have a feeling that other things are intertwined in all of this too...it can't be a coincidence for example that we've seen such a steep decline in thunder days over recent years. There has been a shift of some kind, perhaps owing to long term rosby wave displacement etc 

Edited November 25, 2018 by CreweCold

[Seasonality]

Also worth noting that the UK, a little island bathed by the gulf stream and situated at the western fringe of Eurasia will almost never experience the same depth of and frequency of cold than the CONUS. I definitely see the point some are making about the UK's seeming run of bad luck though. That said, chalk and cheese spring to mind. 

Edited November 25, 2018 by Seasonality

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, I completely agree. However, my point is more that we're not even seeing the set ups (ridge placements) favourable to UK cold recently. It's a rut year after year of it being favourable for the USA but not here. 

The thing i would have to ask then (and i dont wholly know the answer), is do these plunges of cold happen so prodigiously and deep in the Western half of the USA (im talking over centuries so things like the  PDO etc cannot override for short periods of time skewing the averages), if they never do, then it clearly is a landmass issue, if they do then maybe there is some teleconnection on a centurial timescale that we havent discovered yet that is at work.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The thing i would have to ask then (and i dont wholly know the answer), is do these plunges of cold happen so prodigiously and deep in the Western half of the USA (im talking over centuries so things like the  PDO etc cannot override for short periods of time skewing the averages), if they never do, then it clearly is a landmass issue, if they do then maybe there is some teleconnection on a centurial timescale that we havent discovered yet that is at work.

Landmass will undoubtedly play a part, as discussed. However, I'd be shocked if what we are witnessing recently is wholly a landmass issue.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

22 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

People say it's about location...but not sure I agree 100%. America has a large coastline facing out towards the Pacific Ocean yet they can still get frigid uppers pushing a long way south. It's not just about ocean vs landmass it's about where troughing is repeatedly dropping and where ridging is setting up. Over the past decade we're seeing the trough dropping repeatedly a long way S over there. There is no reason why we couldn't see the same thing happening here...but we just don't for whatever reason.

The only perfectly aligned trough dropping over the UK in recent memory was December 2010...and that brought us some of the conditions we would expect with such a set up...

Isn't the point though that these cold Winters are predominantly occurring in the central and eastern US though. You don't hear of much cold weather in the north west conus, which we're kind of more similar to climate wise anyway. You could say that as far as our neighbour major landmass is concerned Eurasia, the north eastern U.S. is more similar to say Hokkaido than Great Britain, which also has a lot more colder and snowier Winters than we do despite like New York, been at a more southerly latitude than anywhere in this country.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Isn't the point though that these cold Winters are predominantly occurring in the central and eastern US though. You don't hear of much cold weather in the north west conus, which we're kind of more similar to climate wise anyway. You could say that as far as our neighbour major landmass is concerned Eurasia, the north eastern U.S. is more similar to say Hokkaido than Great Britain, which also has a lot more colder and snowier Winters than we do despite like New York, been at a more southerly latitude than anywhere in this country.

Agree, but again check the EC 240 chart...cold from west to east....which we've seen so much of over recent years- the cold just seeps S across the whole landmass

It's increasingly become less confined to just the E strip of the USA, as you would traditionally see.

Edited November 25, 2018 by CreweCold

[Jason M]

28 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

People say it's about location...but not sure I agree 100%. America has a large coastline facing out towards the Pacific Ocean yet they can still get frigid uppers pushing a long way south. It's not just about ocean vs landmass it's about where troughing is repeatedly dropping and where ridging is setting up. Over the past decade we're seeing the trough dropping repeatedly a long way S over there. There is no reason why we couldn't see the same thing happening here...but we just don't for whatever reason.

The only perfectly aligned trough dropping over the UK in recent memory was December 2010...and that brought us some of the conditions we would expect with such a set up...

I'm sure I read somewhere once that part of the reason for our prevailing wind type being south westerly is due to the relative position of the UK to various mountain ranges such as the Rockies. This impacts on weather systems / Jet stream and more often than not we end up with the wave pattern in an unfavorable position for cold. Hence we see lots of examples similar to the chart posted across the winter season.

[Mapantz]

I think we're getting a little far off of the beaten track here. I find it fascinating myself, but perhaps someone should make a thread for discussion on upper temps etc?!

Back to the models please!

[Walsall Wood Snow]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Agree, but again check the EC 240 chart...cold from west to east....which we've seen so much of over recent years- the cold just seeps S across the whole landmass

You have said recently though that you're expecting January to be the month of this coming Winter. If you still think that's the case hopefully what it's like in early December shouldn't matter too much?