Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[Duane S.]

Big improvement... 

Another step in the right direction 

[swfc]

Looking at the ukmo I can see a swing in alliance to the gfs side shortly!!!!

[Methuselah]

That Arctic blast would be quite something...if our resident slug would hurry up and pi55 off!

 

[Rambo]

9 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Well according to many in here we were supposed to be enjoying a Narnia Christmas, then it was just after Christmas and in time for a white new year. Oh, hold on, it's now the first week of January. Sorry scratch that, it was always going to be mid-month instead. At this rate, it will be April and everyone will be saying that they are waiting for the effects of the SSW still because of the lag lol. There is a chance the SSW will do zilch to help change our weather patterns.

You're either confusing yourself, or being deliberately misleading.....

This is all about a SSW, which has never been "constantly pushed back", but then you probably know that already!

[blizzard81]

Right. It would be fair to suggest the ukmo to be a rogue run as the icon and gfs have upgraded. A crucial ecm tonight.

[Ali1977]

9 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Big improvement... 

Another step in the right direction 

The differences are stark for only 5 days out - the tip of Norway goes from 0c 850s to -10c , that’s just a little change in a forecast

East Anglia +4 to -4c 850s

Still, nothing much will come from the first hp as it will get flattened, FI is the only interest IMO at the minute - straw clutching for the big one

Edited December 28, 2018 by Ali1977

[Weathizard]

 GFS now better than the UKMO at 144, it’s all good the GFS is a useless model so I guess the UKM must be right.

[Singularity]

 

 

Our high maintains more of a blocking formation, and in tandem, the wave-2 signature at 30 hPa has increased.

Every little helps!

[SMU]

GFS finally sends the colder uppers to the UK, its only taken about 5 days to get right

12z today V yesterday-

Thats about 500 miles West-

@weatherwizard UKMO identical to yesterday

 

Its clear as day what model has moved west by a long long way as forecast...

[Bristawl Si]

9 minutes ago, Rambo said:

You're either confusing yourself, or being deliberately misleading.....

This is all about a SSW, which has never been "constantly pushed back", but then you probably know that already!

To be fair to Lassie this is the Meto forecast published only 2 weeks ago on 13 December:

Outlook for Friday 28 Dec 2018 to Friday 11 Jan 2019: The most likely scenario for the end of December is for periodically unsettled Atlantic weather to move across the UK from the west. However, there is an increased likelihood that the milder, Atlantic weather will become short-lived and a colder and more showery northerly or northwesterly regime will become established across the UK. Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood of a return to colder than average conditions with an increase in the likelihood of overnight frost and fog, as well as some snow.

[Nick F]

Hmmm, much stronger ridge Thursday next week on 12z GFS when comparing 06z for 12z Thursday 3 Jan

06z for 12z Thurs 03/01                           12z for 12z Thurs 03/01

 

[Weathizard]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS finally sends the colder uppers to the UK, its only taken about 5 days to get right

12z today V yesterday-

Thats about 500 miles West-

@weatherwizard UKMO identical to yesterday

 

Its clear as day what model has moved west by a long long way as forecast...

Only a tongue in cheek comment mate, irrelevant when neither of them are going to deliver, the UKM 144 chart isn’t good compared to yesterday, 850’s make look similar but that’s not the whole story

[inghams85]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Only a tongue in cheek comment mate, irrelevant when neither of them are going to deliver, the UKM 144 chart isn’t good compared to yesterday, 850’s make look similar but that’s not the whole story

Both are delivering. Both have a more robust high driving better wave 2 forcing to create a better split and wintry conditions 15th onwards. Look at the bigger picture... 

[Scandinavian High.]

14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS finally sends the colder uppers to the UK, its only taken about 5 days to get right

12z today V yesterday-

Thats about 500 miles West-

@weatherwizard UKMO identical to yesterday

 

Its clear as day what model has moved west by a long long way as forecast...

Yes a move west Steve I think you should get a job at the met office you seem to be on the money love reading your post..

Edited December 28, 2018 by abbie123

[Weathizard]

Just now, inghams85 said:

Both are delivering. Both have a more robust high driving better wave 2 forcing to create a better split and wintry conditions 15th onwards. Look at the bigger picture... 

Steve was posting 850’s so that’s more about current conditions irrelevant of what it does in nearly 3 weeks time! No model will deliver anything based on current model output... it’s as simple as that. Long term, you may be right but I’m referring to current output.

[IDO]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS finally sends the colder uppers to the UK, its only taken about 5 days to get right

12z today V yesterday-

Thats about 500 miles West-

@weatherwizard UKMO identical to yesterday

 

Its clear as day what model has moved west by a long long way as forecast...

Agree and to be expected, always a correction with the Atlantic with the GFS. However all a bit academic as being clipped by the cold uppers under a high will only give us 36 hours of cold upper flow, no snow, and I for one have been looking at the synoptic rather than a brief cold spurt! That being, can we get the high to build NE, even on this run the UK high is a sinker? Slower than the 06z thankfully, which was a typical GFS mystical run.

Do you think that we can get anything like an HLB from this scenario?

 

[Chesil View]

I fail to see why people are getting worried about charts for day 6 or 7. The Meto extended forecast still says mid Jan for a change to cold.  Taking that literally then the 15/16th of Jan is still 18/19 days away with operational runs that go out to 7 /10 and 16 days respectively on ukmo.ecm and GFS. 

So what is anyone expecting to see at day 7 in this situation?

Edited December 28, 2018 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Ali1977]

As some have mentioned, ignore the positioning of this first HP and cold into Central Europe - it won’t deliver to the UK. Concentrate on FI for signs of possible downwelling etc....

[Guest]

Same old thing in here folk are failing to see the small changes early on will lead to a difference later on. it may not lead to a cobra run each time but each time a run corrects west or what ever etc the end game changes. so a day 7 chart today will not end up looking like it in 7 days. chill out people just trust that the models will correct as the event comes into view, the stella charts will happen and will come into view.

[inghams85]

10 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Steve was posting 850’s so that’s more about current conditions irrelevant of what it does in nearly 3 weeks time! No model will deliver anything based on current model output... it’s as simple as that. Long term, you may be right but I’m referring to current output.

Why are you even so concerned about what happens in 6 days time when everyone knows nothing will happen in 6 days time. Steve is showing you the model bias that has skewed the long term runs that like a domino are leading up to a mid Jan cold spell. You are reading charts at face value and you can't do that 

Edited December 28, 2018 by inghams85

[swfc]

1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

Why are you even so concerned about what happens in 6 days time when everyone knows nothing will happen in 6 days time. Steve is showing you the model bias that has skewed the long term runs that like a domino are leading up to a mid Jan cold spell. You are reading charts at face value and you can't do that 

So is there any point looking for a change ie SSW ete in fi ??

[nick sussex]

The GFS has removed the shortwave energy tonight which ran east near Iceland and the result is the high is further north . 

The UKMO is similar over the UK at T120hrs but looks very fast upstream with the Pacific based shortwave this rockets east between day 3 and day 4 and looks a bit too fast .

There are issues upstream with shortwave energy and NCEP have low confidence past day 4 .

This will impact the pattern to the west and nw of the UK so how far north the high gets  and how it topples is still subject to change .

Edited December 28, 2018 by nick sussex

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, IDO said:

Agree and to be expected, always a correction with the Atlantic with the GFS. However all a bit academic as being clipped by the cold uppers under a high will only give us 36 hours of cold upper flow, no snow, and I for one have been looking at the synoptic rather than a brief cold spurt! That being, can we get the high to build NE, even on this run the UK high is a sinker? Slower than the 06z thankfully, which was a typical GFS mystical run.

Do you think that we can get anything like an HLB from this scenario?

 

You have just contradicted your previous posts IDO..

You have based 99% of your posts on GEFS day 10 and 16 means ..usually trumpetting zonal outcomes..

In reality the model cant  get things right at day 5 LOL!!

Now you are turning your attention to belittling any potential cold to comments like 36 hour brief spurt and no snow etc..

I honestly dont understand why you are posting in this thread.. its the hunt for cold thread, not the lets see how much negativity i can inject thread..

 

[inghams85]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

So is there any point looking for a change ie SSW ete in fi ??

Thers is in the ensembles. But in the operationals probably not really. Your better off looking at changes up to 168 to find trends n tie in known model bias to see a pathway. The increased amplification is a good first step. It probably ties in with the tropics which will aid the stratospheric split which will aid the chances of propogation 

[bradymk]

Better profile on the 12z over the poles at day 9/10 compared to recent runs.