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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
    • Location: Aviemore
    Posted

    Here we go with a fresh thread as we move toward Christmas. As ever, please keep it friendly in here - the posting guidelines are at the top of this and every other page in the thread. 

    Don't want to hunt for cold?
    If you'd prefer a slower paced, more general (not cold slanted) model discussion, please head over to the general thread here.

    :santa-emoji: Put the Christmas Decs Up! :santa-emoji:
    If you want to make the forum a bit more Christmassy, head to the bottom of the page and choose 'Christmas Special' from the theme menu. 

    netweather-theme.pngsimple-theme.png

    Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
    GFS
    GFS FV3 (Para)
    GEFS Ensembles
    ECMWF
    ECMWF EPS
    NetWx-SR (3km)
    NetWx-MR (9km)
    Met-Office
    Fax
    GEM
    GFS Hourly

    Model Comparison
    Global Jet Stream
    Stratosphere

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    Seasonality Accomplished

    Seasonality

    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
    • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    Posted
    3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

    Frosty start on Christmas day?  Para 12z 

    gfsnh-0-186-1.png

    High pressure ridging North West, centred West of the UK seems the form horse imo. 

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    bobbydog Maestro

    bobbydog

    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    Posted
    2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

    Frosty start on Christmas day?  Para 12z 

    gfsnh-0-186-1.png

    The high is more amplified again. The trend is our friend...

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    Methuselah Maestro

    Methuselah

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
    • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Posted
    4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

    The high is more amplified again. The trend is our friend...

    And I will be concentrating on developments to our ENE and NNW.

    Netweather GFS Image

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    tight isobar Maestro

    tight isobar

    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
    • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    Posted

    While its quiet...let have a look at 2-less'er raw ops..

    For sake of amp/foramt.

    Chinese/brazilian mods.

    Snaps via euro window...

    Christmas day.

    Uncomfortably behind the leading ops...

    But of note for overall compare.

    cptec-0-234.png

    cma-0-180.png

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    jules216 Experienced

    jules216

    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
    • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    Posted
    14 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    High pressure ridging North West, centred West of the UK seems the form horse imo. 

    @Seasonality that is good for Central Europe looks like northerly by 26.12

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    swfc Veteran

    swfc

    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
    • Location: sheffield
    Posted

    Just out of curiosity if a SSW occurs and a split vortex will any forcing come from the Pacific ? I'm old school dust in the wind type and Siberian swans flying west!! trying to get to grips with the strat ete.tia

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    Quicksilver1989 Veteran

    Quicksilver1989

    Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
    • Location: Hull
    Posted

    Evening, here are some more swingometers updated until the 12z's

    image.thumb.png.b42804b54641f4c7a299e8484a5bf4b3.png

    The forecast for christmas day looks similar to what it has done for recent days... mild but not especially so, a small chance of something colder and a fair bit of uncertainty remaining

    image.thumb.png.8e0c0e4ed181ffd1f1c9dbfdf3eaab4f.png

    For New Years Day the ensembles show very low heights to our NW in quite a few of them. Either a strong westerly or anticyclonic appears most likely at this early point.

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    Stuie Experienced

    Stuie

    Posted
  • Location: NW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
    • Location: NW Essex
    Posted
    2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Christmas day still looking like we could see something colder best chance of snow will probably be in Scotland

    gefsens850London0.thumb.png.95fc6e79925ededeea05e3612c4fed01.pnggefsens850Inverness0.thumb.png.940b9b59582be0772bb141729389df5f.png

    Just going by those a hint of an easterly. If it was northerly you would expect Inverness to be colder.

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    ArHu3 Rising Star

    ArHu3

    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    Posted
    23 minutes ago, ZK099 said:

    Just thought I'd share this. Quite pertinent 

    Screenshot_20181217-180409_Twitter.jpg

    62-63 and 78-79 indeed were epic but those other winters were very mediocre, well at least we have a lottery ticket 

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    Stuie Experienced

    Stuie

    Posted
  • Location: NW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
    • Location: NW Essex
    Posted
    2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

    62-63 and 78-79 indeed were epic but those other winters were very mediocre, well at least we have a lottery ticket 

    That is america though?

    Edit: that tweet

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    ArHu3 Rising Star

    ArHu3

    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    Posted
    3 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

    That is america though?

    Edit: that tweet

    Yes

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    Walsall Wood Snow Seasoned

    Walsall Wood Snow

    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
    • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
    Posted
    6 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

    62-63 and 78-79 indeed were epic but those other winters were very mediocre, well at least we have a lottery ticket 

    1977/78 was also a cold and snowy Winter though, although probably overshadowed by the following Winter of 1978/79. 2002/03 however was pretty pants here, although I think some other regions did okayish  during this Winter. Obviously not fantastic though, but at at least 3 of those years went on to produce good Winters for cold and snow.

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    Spah1 Accomplished

    Spah1

    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
    • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
    Posted

    D503E061-9286-4797-A9BB-63E8540AA29B.thumb.png.8851049a9a03a5a679fcaaec4d0c7d5d.png

    Someone shoot me now ☹️

    zzzzz

    i’d rather wind and rain. 

    Cosy, fire on. 

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    feb1991blizzard Maestro

    feb1991blizzard

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
    • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Posted
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    Not sure i like the look of EC- high sinking 168-192..

    N'ly coming if it went further than 240 though - you'll see signs by then.

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    northwestsnow Maestro

    northwestsnow

    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Posted
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    N'ly coming if it went further than 240 though - you'll see signs by then.

    will need some energy to go into the southern are for that to happen..

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    MattStoke Maestro

    MattStoke

    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    Posted

    If it wasn’t for the promising background signals and strat forecasts, it would be dead on here. The model output is God awfully boring.

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    I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

    I remember Atlantic 252

    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
    • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    Posted
    4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    N'ly coming if it went further than 240 though - you'll see signs by then.

    way east surely? 

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