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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The strat has gone rubbish this morning.

If you are worrying about gfs then ask yourself if the tide is in or out ..... or is it a month with 30 or 31 days ......

all it shows is the ebb and flow that the NCEP op models have been exhibiting .... granted the para had been a tad more consistent but no more than that 

ec upper strat looks in line with yesterday - reversal 29 dec and the op again produces big wave 3 by day 10 in the trop which will help sort out any ideas the spv may have about reforming apace 

 

Edited by bluearmy
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

EC looks mainly dry and cold this morning with only 2 or 3 days one could class as mild..

Christmas eve looks cold for many ,a few days where temps nudge up then by day 9/10 temps are dropping away again..

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If you are worrying about gfs then ask yourself if the tide is in or out ..... or is it a month with 30 or 31 days ......

all it shows is the ebb and flow that the NCEP op models have been exhibiting .... granted the para had been a tad more consistent but no more than that 

ec upper strat looks in line with yesterday - reversal 29 dec and the op again produces big wave 3 by day 10 in the trop which will help sort out any ideas the spv may have about reforming apace 

 

Yes i noticed the ECM D10 chart looked great, i just want to see a nice wide split modelled over the next few days, if that Occurs on the ECM and eps consistenty then yes, i wont worry about the GFS but i have noticed changes usually occur (moreso than any weekday) on the overnight friday into saturday NWP runs, not always for the better and dont always revert back  and the fact that its backed by the para as well is significant.

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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted

Ecm day 10 probably the best chart on  show in what is a very poor NWP output. At leas hit has formed vortex.. if it gets any worse the old missing data cliche will be branded about! 

 

ECMOPEU00_240_1-1.png

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted (edited)

Still exceptional cohesion inter and cross-model till D10 with HP dominant over the UK:

ECM1-240.thumb.gif.9f9e0168793ad93d5c14acd009225f7b.gifgem-0-240.thumb.png.236e173667e0098cc02e34a6129b5e51.pnggens-21-1-240.thumb.png.50d8591389c57607bcbcf20b33949525.png

ECM...GEM....GEFS mean

GFS op and GEFS mean keeps that scenario through week 1 of January. The odd GEFS showing something more interesting but no real alternative cluster to the UK High as yet. We would expect some members to be different but we need consistency and a trend to say things are changing. Only a matter of time but no QTR looking likely with the current output.

As for the strat keep an eye on tweets and such for GLOS5 and ECM (as per yesterday) as both those continue to show splits.

The high up to D10 on the GFS looks to be cloudy and mild at times with little sign of a cold and frosty high. But the placement of the high remains probably the main variable in the next 12 days!

Edited by IDO
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, IDO said:

S

As for the strat keep an eye on tweets and such for GLOS5 and ECM (as per yesterday) as both those continue to show splits.

h

Any ideas of the specifics of the split and timing the GLOSEA5 is showing please?

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Any ideas of the specifics of the split and timing the GLOSEA5 is showing please?

Sorry, just getting titbits from the web, I think strict rules on what they can say:

 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, IDO said:

Sorry, just getting titbits from the web, I think strict rules on what they can say:

 

 

Thats NASA's model, not UKMO, i think, and its pretty poor i think.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Even the 1mb now is looking like one of the segments will return towards Greenland.

[ECMWF 240 hour forecast from December 21 2018 12 UTC to December 31 2018 12 UTC: 1 hPa geopotential and temperature]

Which one is this morning Feb? Looks good to me that picture but when you click on it it changes?(to a slightly less desirable image).

Edited by northwestsnow
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Which one is this morning Feb? Looks good to me that picture but when you click on it it changes?(to a slightly less desirable image).

None, we will have to wait for someone to tell us, the one it changes to is yesterday afternoons which is the latest publicly available.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Im confused, when you click on it it says 21.12.2018 12z..

Sorry if im getting this wrong btw..

see updated post.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

see updated post.

Thanks mate

I suspect looking at EC det there is a split, but still a lot of energy in the Atlantic (lobe dropping into the Atlantic)?

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Ec mean is a decent improvement on yesterdays 12z mean..

Yes, a step in the right direction.

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snowfish1 Aficionado

snowfish1

Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
Posted

So where do things stand guys. Are we now looking at mid January and when will the cool looking charts start to appear.  By that I mean the ones that might come to fruition as opposed to the potential ones!!    Merry Christmas everyone from a NW Student https://tse2.mm.bing.net/th?id=OGC.a8e9c009b6740d7ac0aa53798647794d&pid=Api&rurl=https%3a%2f%2fmedia.giphy.com%2fmedia%2fvmNvy0UQd8e76%2fgiphy.gif&ehk=NIJDDshaO1k6ZsYiGghNOA

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Blizzardof82 Community Regular

Blizzardof82

Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
Posted

Anyone else having trouble with Meteociel being slow and not loading?

 

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Mid January charts are very unlikely to come to fruition we haven't a model that's even remotely reliable at that time period. We struggle at times fro five days. So it's best to say hypothetically its' mid January.

I see the ECM has placed a high over us at T240 lala land in recent years these have damn persistent generally jigging to the left or right slightly. 

Frustrating times at the moment and we would be better all getting out and pushing the UK a few hundred miles further North or dram in CFS land.

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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted

Get the feeling there is a lot of desperate strat searching going on, trying to find a straw to clutch....I certainly can't see anything particularly exciting if it's snow your after. Wonder if the trend away from wintry wonderland will continue in the Mets updates today.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted
1 minute ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Anyone else having trouble with Meteociel being slow and not loading?

 

Fine here issue with your isp or router?

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Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted

End of the latest FV3 is rather extreme. Certainly would help the Scottish ski season get going,... 

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.6baf2daedb9841d6af99c5fd2d7a45ff.png

Normal FI caveats apply. 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, KTtom said:

Get the feeling there is a lot of desperate strat searching going on, trying to find a straw to clutch....I certainly can't see anything particularly exciting if it's snow your after. Wonder if the trend away from wintry wonderland will continue in the Mets updates today.

The strat could be key, up to now there has been precious little appetite to remove the persistent low heights to our North west..

Hopefully the warming over the Pole will help break up this pattern, we need a relaxation of the jet coming across the Atlantic but in all fairness i hear what you are saying, really hoping we start to see some chinks of light soon..

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Get the feeling there is a lot of desperate strat searching going on, trying to find a straw to clutch....I certainly can't see anything particularly exciting if it's snow your after. Wonder if the trend away from wintry wonderland will continue in the Mets updates today.

Desperate Strat searching......?

trend away from wintry wonderland continue ..?

Strat warming well underway already! Now! Today!

Here is Day 5

6B2BACED-D920-4E66-BC3E-AB6384F41E93.thumb.gif.c8131b5abc16c0d3ddc015fdbb39eb15.gif

Toasty!

by D10 U-wind at -9.9 m/s and a split

45AA4184-1050-4B2A-81E5-76EADCAEB32B.thumb.gif.71eda768916a222a6d4ad7f9e893eee0.gif

 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Point had been made. Final comment unnecessary. (Xtra edit by the evil red line)
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