Cyclone Oma

[crimsone]

We never talk about the south in here...

... but this one is lovely in so far as nobody seems quite sure where it's going to go. For a while there the models were split between Australia and New Zealand, but it looks like they've vaguely settled for Australia for now...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH152019

[Styx]

It looks like Oma won't cross the Australia coast now. BoM has dropped its cyclone advice for Queensland. Predicted to steer north up the Queensland coast as a weak system, but well offshore. 

[crimsone]

Looks like it's forecast to do a really tight loop de loop, and head off back up towards Cairns or PNG.



That said, it's developed a decent trough stretching from just S.W of its center to a comparatively weak low center a bit NE of NZ's North Island, which is forecast to become fully occluded by 1am sunday (New Zealand Time), with a high building into the Tasman Sea... but with another nasty antarctic low trying to break through below it.

Perhaps it'll just fall apart out at sea instead?