Hurricane Humberto

[matty40s]

We have been tracking West, now in the Ozarks for 2 days, and our next move is down to Louisiana and New Orleans for the weekend.

The disturbance (#1)without a name out North of Haiti is slowly edging NW and will cross Florida towards the weekend where conditions look very ripe for quick development as it enters the Gulf.

If nothing else, it will produce a foot of rain in some areas, and may give trump his hit in Alabama.....only 2 weeks late.

 

Edited September 16, 2019 by Lauren

[matty40s]

Just been upped in "possibleness"

[pages]

Latest icon doesn't get the disturbance into the gulf, slowing it down and taking it up eastern side of Florida as strong storm/cat 1 hurricane. GFS thou stays same as earlier with weak depression into gulf that doesn't really develop. What's the bet the icon is the start of a trend to intensify it and have it turn north further east. Sound familiar...

[matty40s]

The Icon would be best,/worst for us as we have to get to Jacksonville by Wed for the link flight out to Washington Dulles 

[karyo]

8 hours ago, pages said:

Latest icon doesn't get the disturbance into the gulf, slowing it down and taking it up eastern side of Florida as strong storm/cat 1 hurricane. GFS thou stays same as earlier with weak depression into gulf that doesn't really develop. What's the bet the icon is the start of a trend to intensify it and have it turn north further east. Sound familiar...

The GFS is on its own. ICON, UKMO and ECM are all similar in keeping the storm on the Atlantic side. The NHC has not caught up with the models yet as they are still saying that it will enter the Gulf. They were behind the models with Dorian too.

[karyo]

The 6z GFS continues to be on its own.

The next NHC update will be interesting.

[pages]

2 hours ago, karyo said:

The 6z GFS continues to be on its own.

The next NHC update will be interesting.

Latest update has removed mention of the gulf/Florida just mentions 80% chance of it becoming a storm. Think NHC will issue storm warnings to Florida east coast after this afternoons ECM. GFS will probably come in to line by then. Looking at icon and ECM it never makes landfall but is a hurricane sitting of florida/Gorgia coasts for days so flooding would be mostly likely concern not the wind

[karyo]

1 hour ago, pages said:

Latest update has removed mention of the gulf/Florida just mentions 80% chance of it becoming a storm. Think NHC will issue storm warnings to Florida east coast after this afternoons ECM. GFS will probably come in to line by then. Looking at icon and ECM it never makes landfall but is a hurricane sitting of florida/Gorgia coasts for days so flooding would be mostly likely concern not the wind

It is remarkable that the GFS has not woken up yet. I guess it will come in line with the other models in the 12z output.

As for the Gulf of Mexico, it is almost as if someone has placed a hurricane shield to it and the storms can't enter. First Dorian and now this one, were forecast to enter the Gulf but then things changed. The ECM has another hurricane in its later output which looks like heading for the Gulf but the re-curves north.

[karyo]

Unbelievably the 12z still doesn't fall in line with the other models. It hardly makes anything of Humberto.

Both the ICON and UKMO have a storm just east of Florida and then moving close to the Carolina coast.

[pages]

Yeah ECM  backs icon & ukmo. GEM is half way house with weak storm going north through the middle of Florida penisula. GEM is probably actually the worse outcome as only model showing any significant rain/gusts in central Florida other 3 are stronger systems but out at sea with no landfall.  be very interesting to see what NHC do on  next update as really should issue storm surge warnings for Bahamas and east of Florida but will they do that if the American model is showing different..suppose they will wait until after 18z GFS then issue warnings 

[karyo]

We now have tropical depression 9.

However development is looking slow for the foreseeable. 

[matty40s]

Humberto is now official, although seems to be becoming a bit of a (damp) squib from initial forecasts.

[Lauren]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

[karyo]

Humberto is going to stay a fish.

The NHC has once again adjusted the track east .

[Iceberg]

Humberto has really struggled shear and dry air since he started. Also his circulation was poor. 

However the last 12 hrs has seen this lessen dramatically. A solid cdo has formed and banding is evident. 

radar from Florida indicates a nice eye forming. Currently open at 20% in the nw of the eye wall but decent enough...for pressure falls.

Recon have just entered and pressure has fallen a bit to 995mb. 

he will need a close eye for the next 24 hrs

[Iceberg]

Pressure recorded of sub 990mb. But probably still around 990mb. 

Still a nice stop. Radar still shows the eye open. But he’s looking impressive. 

[Lauren]

Now at Hurricane status but expected to be major.

Edited September 16, 2019 by Lauren

[Iceberg]

Pressure just recorded at 978mb and winds of 75kts maybe 80kts. From recon.

Hes quite a big bugger. 

[Iceberg]

Well I never. 

Raw adt Dvorak has just jumped to T6.1. 

This is in response to the clearing eye. 

This would equate to a Cat 4. Which he certainly isn’t. 

But does clearly suggest some very rapid intensification is happening. 

How will a very large powerful hurricane that isn’t currently being modelling well by the globals affect our side of the woods?   I wonder!

[Spikecollie]

No idea. Technically we don't get hurricanes in "our side of the woods", so the universe knows (I don't use the g word anymore). Is it hitting the US first? 

[summer blizzard]

The globals did suggest good if not strong intensification to be fair and have done so for days (well, i have not checked in the past 36 hours). 

[Jo Farrow]

Bermuda included at edge of cone with a Tropical storm watch

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible over Bermuda by late Wednesday. RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected. SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the coast of Bermuda by Tuesday night. Swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days. 

[Iceberg]

Pressure 959mb in the first pass for a while and winds of 85 kts 

if the eye ever got really organised this would be very top end....but atm it's not

18 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

The globals did suggest good if not strong intensification to be fair and have done so for days (well, i have not checked in the past 36 hours). 

They had quite a small system...ec takes the energy up to iceland by t144th t168th. Gfs keeps it adrift mid Atlantic as it gets cut of from the jet.

where it gets picked up at t120 is quite uncertain imo.

[Jo Farrow]

Tropical Storm warning now for Bermuda

http://www.weather.bm/observations.asp

"the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a major hurricane in about 24 to 36 hours - Discussion 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 

It is still too early to give a good estimate as to how close the core of the hurricane will come to Bermuda. Interests should not focus on the exact forecast track; only a slight deviation to the right could bring the center near or over the island."

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater_index.php

[snowrye]

Is this invest 97l