Hurricane Lorenzo

[Lauren]

My namesake storm has arrived.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

Edited September 29, 2019 by Jo Farrow
hurricane status

[The Eagle]

Potentially serious storm for parts of the Azores. 

[Jo Farrow]

Could be interesting for western Europe next week. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9836-late-september-tropical-storms-atlantic-jerry-karen-and-lorenzo-and-arabian-hikaa 

[Hurricane Debby]

I just read this on Josh Morgermans Facebook.....

Way out in the E Atlantic, LORENZO will soon become a powerful hurricane. The computer models are showing recurvature in the general direction of the British Isles. LORENZO wouldn't be a hurricane when it got there, but it's possible it could still arrive as a powerful extratropical storm—sort of like OPHELIA in 2017. Again, it's too early to say.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Now a CAT 4

 

[summer blizzard]

939mb, 145mph.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

 

[The Eagle]

Ophelia-esque evolution on the 12z ECM. This could be one to watch. 

 

Edited September 27, 2019 by The Eagle

[Hurricane Debby]

1 hour ago, The Eagle said:

Ophelia-esque evolution on the 12z ECM. This could be one to watch. 

 

Please explain the Ophelia-esque evolution to me. Josh Morgerman mentioned Ophelia....

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

15 minutes ago, Hurricane Debby said:

Please explain the Ophelia-esque evolution to me. Josh Morgerman mentioned Ophelia....

"Hurricane Ophelia (known as Storm Ophelia in Ireland and the United Kingdom while extratropical) was regarded as the worst storm to affect Ireland in 50 years, and was also the easternmost Atlantic major hurricane on record." https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ophelia_(2017)

Still lots of uncertainty with the exact track / strength of Lorenzo but a track toward Ireland / UK is a possibility.

[The Eagle]

Yup, still could go many ways. Some fairly notable evolutions out there though

 

I still favor the track to the west of Ireland keeping it off shore I think. 

 

Should be interesting to track this.

 

Edited September 27, 2019 by The Eagle

[The Eagle]

 

Latest (10 am advisory) from NHC. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/280844.shtml?

 

 

[The PIT]

The remains get fairly close on the fax

[Hurricane Debby]

Many thanks KirkCaldy Weather ! 

[Zak M]

15 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

"Hurricane Ophelia (known as Storm Ophelia in Ireland and the United Kingdom while extratropical) was regarded as the worst storm to affect Ireland in 50 years, and was also the easternmost Atlantic major hurricane on record." https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ophelia_(2017)

Still lots of uncertainty with the exact track / strength of Lorenzo but a track toward Ireland / UK is a possibility.

Thanks for the BBC clip. Very interesting to watch.

[The Eagle]

Always worth remembering the track can change at short notice. Some runs have this potentially impacting southern parts of UK or even through Biscay and in to France.

 

 

Edited September 28, 2019 by The Eagle

[Zenarcher]

GFS 00z and 06z have a similar track,

The GFS shows Ireland get a direct hit on Thursday afternoon,

As it moves east it will bring strong winds to Wales and parts of England,

Early Friday morning see's winds easing for Ireland but windy over Wales and most of England,

 

The ECM takes a very similar path to the GFS just slightly more North,

But the ECM appears to be an outlier its ensembles don't fully agree with it. Since the ECM tracks over the South of Scotland I've searched for the location Ayr in Scotland you can see the air pressure differences,

The ECM could still be right I saw it happened at least twice last winter with storms the ensembles didn't back it up to begin with but over time did.

The other possibility is that it could track further West into the Atlantic and miss out on hitting any land entirely this was shown on a few models yesterday but most models have backed away from this idea today but it is still possible,

NAVGEM 00z had it further South so the worst of the winds would miss some Northern parts of Ireland and South of Scotland compared to the ECM but Southern parts along Ireland, Wales and England would see very windy weather,

The final thing that the models seem to suggest is it heading even further South into the Bay of Biscay which wouldn't really bring any severe wind speeds to the UK and Ireland,

 

It's still a long way and at this stage any one of these scenarios could happen so it is worth keeping a watch.

[The PIT]

Going to be a lot of changes over the next two days. Media sleep waking and missing "killer Hurricane to savage UK winds up to 160 mph" headlines or Hurricane to bring record breaking winds. Shoppers unable to stock up on food due to brexit many will starve after the hurricane passes. Corbyn to delay demands on Election due to Killer Hurricane. LIbs Dems say they will cancel Hurricane Lorenzo if they win the election.

Edited September 28, 2019 by The PIT

[JeffC]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Going to be a lot of changes over the next two days. Media sleep waking and missing "killer Hurricane to savage UK winds up to 160 mph" headlines or Hurricane to bring record breaking winds. Shoppers unable to stock up on food due to brexit many will starve after the hurricane passes. Corbyn to delay demands on Election due to Killer Hurricane. LIbs Dems say they will cancel Hurricane Lorenzo if they win the election.

You missed the SNP saying they support Lorenzo and hop it will result in a geographic rift between Scotland and the rest of the UK!

[Zak M]

So, most models show Lorenzo hitting Ireland and clipping a bit of Britain as well, but Ventusky thinks it's going to hit France 

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Looks like Lorenzo may track slightly further south come Thursday, was 115mph 12hrs ago, now back to 130mph sustained, the good news is the forecast is for it to now become below hurricane force near our shores.

[Jayces]

Back up to Cat 4 and suggestions it might even become Cat 5 before starting to weaken!

[The Eagle]

Lorenzo could conceivably hit Cat 5 status within the next 12 hours.

This mornings model runs will be important for Ireland and the UK later on. There is no clarity yet really on the track of the system in to the mid latitude and how it taps the jet stream.

 

 

Edited September 29, 2019 by The Eagle

[The Eagle]

Lorenzo is now a major Cat 5 hurricane with wind speeds above 155 mph.

[Iceberg]

Quite stunning 

Ssts are only in their 28e and are about 1c above average without this a cat 5 would be possible...

He is still getting stronger on Sat and dvorak.

Path still a concern for us. latest nhc now with a forecast point on the Irish coast.

Gfs much further West and out of the cone...