Mild Januaries followed by cold Februaries - examples??

[damianslaw]

Well it looks most likely yet again we will see a mild January followed in the main by a mild February, unless we see some major change come middle of month, which doesn't look very likely - not to say we won't see a colder period before month is out..

Any one have any stats last time we had a notably mild Jan, say 5 degrees or more, followed by a colder than average February?

I can't think of many examples, 1983 one case, 2018 though possibly.. we know that was only thanks to a SSW. Indeed would be good to know whether the Feb followed a SSW in January.

Mild Jan's and mild Feb's tend to go hand in hand..

Indeed the strongest couplings tend to be Jan and Feb, as well as July and August it seems.

[Metwatch]

 damianslaw

Not a very common combination indeed these days. Some cases last century but again not overly common. 2018 the only example this century with a January CET of 5.4C and February at 3.1C which even then isn't that big of a difference.

1981:

January CET: 4.9C     February CET: 2.9C

 

1969:

January CET: 5.5C     February CET: 1.0C (biggest temp difference I think)

 

1968:

January CET: 4.4C     February CET: 1.9C  (January not really mild though)

 

1956:

January CET: 3.6C     February CET: -0.2C  (Also January not mild)

 

1932:

January CET: 6.3C     February CET: 2.9C

 

1930:

January CET: 5.6C     February CET: 2.5C

 

1906:

January CET: 5.3C     February CET: 3.1C

 

1902:

January CET: 4.7C     February CET: 1.5C

Edited November 27, 2024 by Metwatch

[cheese]

 

On 30/01/2020 at 21:16, damianslaw said:

Indeed the strongest couplings tend to be Jan and Feb, as well as July and August it seems.

The two coldest months, and the two warmest months. I guess that makes sense.

[Summerlover2006]

Winter 1968/1969 was one of those rare winters that was still good but had a bad January with December being great as well as February.

[Don]

Had January 1996 not had a very cold final week, this month could have been an example?

[Summer8906]

Mild Jan to cold Feb is rare (1983 being the obvious one) however the converse (cold, or average, Jan to mild Feb) seems relatively common. For example 1982, 1997, 2011 and even 2022 all did this to a greater or lesser extent.

[damianslaw]

 Summer8906 Jan 22 from memory wasn't especially cold, indeed I'm struggling to remember much about the month other than very quiet conditions. 

[baddie]

 damianslaw January 2022 was near average, but very sunny and dry

[TheOgre]

 Summer8906 2019 went from a cold January to a mild February as well.

[Harry233]

 damianslaw very sunny, dry and mild here but like you say it was very quiet, didn’t feel like January at all. I remember one cold spell around the 7th coming after an extremely mild new year and one probably around the 18th. Most of the time though it was very mild and quiet. I was working a lot outside during then and most days were sunny and temperatures nudging double figures at times so it felt almost springlike with light winds too. Probably one of the best January’s but January here has often been very good with the exception of 2020. 

 baddie  very mild in the north especially. Almost felt springlike as it was very dry and sunny here

[Harry233]

Probably January to February 2011 is the best bet. January 2011 was a cold month but often forgotten about due to the exceptional December before it. February 2011 was a mild one a dire month.

 TheOgre January 2019 was another brilliant month. Almost rainless here and very sunny with the weather constantly jumping from very mild to very cold. Was a very interesting month without being bleak.

[Weather-history]

Winter 1874-75..... and for an added bonus it had a severe December.    150 years ago

One thing to note is that this period had a cluster of mild to very mild Februarys and cold Decembers. I think at one stage the 30 year average for December was actually lower than February.

[Summer8906]

 damianslaw True, but it was about average as well as anticyclonic - to be fair I was considering average to mild as well as cold to mild. Point is, there have been a good number of years in which a raging jet has got going early in Feb having been quieter in Jan, while the opposite is rare.

Here, once the mild start was over, it was often sunny and temps by day were typically average or very marginally above - but nights were cold with many frosts.

 TheOgre True, to be fair I was especially considering the quiet January to raging-zonal-jet February years so forgot about that one!

Edited November 29, 2024 by Summer8906

[LetItSnow]

 Summer8906 January 2022 felt quite chilly in the south due to a frequency of night frosts. The month was never notably cold by day but often cold at night. Extremely sunny month. Total SAD-buster of a month for those who have it. In the north it would be percieved a lot differently as the bloated highs that kept the south cold often drifted mild and cloudy air over Scotland. It was around average down here (possibly would have been below if not for the 1st) but I think generally about +2C in Scotland. I think the temperature different reversed in February 2022.

Variations of the theme since 1900 looking at the CET. Some will be arguable, especially by older standards.

2018, 2012, 2005, 1996, 1994, 1983, 1981, 1969, 1968, 1944, 1932, 1930, 1924, 1916, 1906, 1900

[cheeky_monkey]

1986? went from an average Jan to a severe cold February 

[SunChaserWales]

 LetItSnow Loved Jan 2022! 2023 and 2024 were great in the main as well, proper SAD-busting months, while 2021 was quite cold and snowy which was good. We've been lucky lately in January.

The only real recent examples I can think of to fit the thread are 2005 and 2018. 2015 and 2016 are two other examples that had a February that was a good bit colder than January but don't fit as well considering neither February was that far below average.

[LetItSnow]

Let's look at one of those examples I gave. Here's January and February of 1930.

Very mild and changeable first week of January 1930, stereotypically so.

Has a short spell of cold zonality for a time. Cold rain in the south but perhaps a snow event in the north. Very quickly pushed away by mild air.

A spell of very balmy looking south-westerlies.

More generally mild to end the month. Fun fact: The chart for the 27th looks chilly with a slack easterly flow but the uppers were actually unusually mild with a waft of 5C uppers off the North Sea.

February 1930 starts with an increasingly southerly tracking jet, eventually turning cold.

However the rest of the month is anticyclonic with surface cold. I'm not even sure these synoptics would be even that cold anymore if they were to occur in say February 2025. A weatherless type month.

 

[Harry233]

I can only really think of maybe 2005. Very mild January here and then a cold spell at the start of February but February 2005 wasn’t actually that cold just slightly cooler. Good topic 

 

[Summer8906]

One (kind of) example is 1970. January was rather mild and February rather cold, but crucially the two months were of different character. Following a cold first week, Jan 1970 seemed to be mostly dull and very wet cyclonic SW-lies with high pressure further east preventing the lows moving east. Feb 1970 seemed to be northwesterly, there were some milder interludes at times but also heavy snow even in the south. Also it was very sunny, while Jan 1970 was very dull.