Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[staplehurst]

14 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Surprised at that storm in the Channel Islands - formed very quickly with very frequent lightning and only 13-14c temps there.

They are quite likely elevated - cloud bases are 3,000ft which is around 890mb, riding atop the warm nose that is present just above the cool surface easterly undercut

[Zak M]

That cell off the coast of Kent has electrified again

[Guest]

The storm in the western channel is fading fast, the anvil is spreading 60miles to the north, could see further development just to the north on the outflow boundary. Also I think the netweather radar is pixelating to some extent. 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Guest

[Paul Sherman]

Yh this East North Easterly from the HIGH Pressure is going to do us zero favours in this set up undercutting into the Storms. The temp here in SE Essex is 8c with a freezing cold wind

[tomp456]

Gonna call it a bust already,

 

this is of course, reverse psychology...;)

[Guest]

Overall SFERIC activity is now about 50% lower than an hour ago. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

This is why I spent the day doing something practical, knew it was gonna be a long day, and we’re not even there yet!

[Ben Sainsbury]

Quite a potent little feature moving over Sidmouth, SE Devon right now. Would expect to see some further development just west of Poole in the next hour.

[Eagle Eye]

Getting dark seeing some Cumulonimbus Clouds embedded in but nothing much else6............. 

 

[Harry]

The instability has not arrived yet people - #patiencerequired 

[tomp456]

Skies looked stormy earlier, now they don’t.

its just a bog standard cloudy and cool spring evening 

[Hodgheg]

It's going to be a long night! Don't think it's worth watching every radar frame. Good look everyone! 

[Guest]

Have to say 90mins ago I fancied my chances, feeling like it’s very unlikely now. I never really like it (whatever the setup) when the cells form in France and drift north. Best shows are 100% of the time from freshly formed convention that forms just offshore (Poole bay) and moves onshore. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Have to say 90mins ago I fancied my chances, feeling like it’s very unlikely now. I never really like it (whatever the setup) when the cells form in France and drift north. Best shows are 100% of the time from freshly formed convention that forms just offshore (Poole bay) and moves onshore. 

You’ll hopefully get some nice cloudscapes and distant anvil show in an hour or two

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

You’ll hopefully get some nice cloudscapes and distant anvil show in an hour or two

I’m pretty much already under the anvil of the rapidity decaying storm. Hate to use the ‘B’ word so early but it’s not looking good.

[Justin1705]

Have a look on sat 24 the cloud tops have been rising in the last 1 hour or so, even in SE England, I expect something to happen after dark, as predicted

[Guest]

Sferic activity west of Cherbourg now almost completely dead. 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

Have a look on sat 24 the cloud tops have been rising in the last 1 hour or so, even in SE England, I expect something to happen after dark, as predicted

That is just the apparent increased reflectivity of the sun setting on the cloud tops. 

[tomp456]

13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I’m pretty much already under the anvil of the rapidity decaying storm. Hate to use the ‘B’ word so early but it’s not looking good.

It's OK... I declared the b word an hour ago ;] 

[Eagle Eye]

The Storm Over Calais Seems to be taking Over The sea, I Think It's getting a lot of energy by late Evening releases of Energy. 

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

That is just the apparent increased reflectivity of the sun setting on the cloud tops. 

I think he might mean this one Chris,they have rose to a couple of pockets of 9km

Satellite images with clouds height of France, Weather in France - SAT24.com

EN.SAT24.COM

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Satellite images with clouds height of France, Weather in France - SAT24.com

don't get me wrong but i think we are looking at a  Kent clipper at most as it stands but the night is still young.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Hey all, just in case anyone’s expecting some sort of summer banger, there’s a chance of a half-decent storm around the south coast but nobody has suggested anything more than embedded thundery showers is particularly likely anywhere.

Pinpointing a spot for any more organised convection over land is kind of impossible so just keep an eye on the radar for the next 90 mins. Something should pop up, though many areas in the south will miss a direct hit and there’s a chance some areas will just get heavy showers.

The further inland any of these showers get we will probably see them weakening quite rapidly, especially after midnight.

I doubt it’s gonna be a bust - in fact I think it will be exactly as forecast - bands of heavy convective rain and some of these will likely have hail and thunder.

Best thing to do now is just sit back and enjoy what the weather will throw at us - and hopefully some lucky people will get a little light show to kick off the weekend

[Eagle Eye]

New storm Forming over the Channel Looks like that's Going to be good for places Like Headcorn and Smarden. 

[Allseasons-Si]

^And just as i type that,some more cells fire up west of the Cherbourg Peninsular heading i would of thought IOW  

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Hey all, just in case anyone’s expecting some sort of summer banger, there’s a chance of a half-decent storm around the south coast but nobody has suggested anything more than embedded thundery showers is particularly likely anywhere.

Pinpointing a spot for any more organised convection over land is kind of impossible so just keep an eye on the radar for the next 90 mins. Something should pop up, though many areas in the south will miss a direct hit and there’s a chance some areas will just get heavy showers.

The further inland any of these showers get we will probably see them weakening quite rapidly, especially after midnight.

I doubt it’s gonna be a bust - in fact I think it will be exactly as forecast - bands of heavy convective rain and some of these will likely have hail and thunder.

Best thing to do now is just sit back and enjoy what the weather will throw at us - and hopefully some lucky people will get a little light show to kick off the weekend

Not sure that’s entirely accurate, some pretty active storms were forecast to reach the south coast then quickly a few miles inland, seems like that boundary was out by about 30-40miles too far north.