South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/09/2020 Onward

[offerman]

4 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

Very surprised Shaftesbury and Frome had heavy rain and there both quite high up but as it's Marginal doesn't mean it will 100 per cent snow.

Hi Dave , we have been lucky over the years here since 2007. Had 8 winters of good  snow events in these years ( with multiple falls in a couple of those winters )and a few years of zilch mild much rain wind. 

Guess we were due to be on the wrong side of marginal for a change . Normally in these setups we fair quite well here as you say because quite high up .

 

Let's  see what the splodge to our north can bring as Fromey highlighted . 

[the storm fisherman]

At least we got sleet here in Gosport which is a partial result as being on the coast it has got to be really cold to get real snow at least it will cool very thing off now .

 

[iowpompeylee]

9 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Here’s one from yesterday commenting on a precipitation chart at T+204:

“Nationwide snow event. Even though it shows rain I think it will be 100% snow.”

I saw that hahaha in about 3 weeks time 

[camturbo]

Thats more than I have 

[Leon1]

Rained this morning even though the conditions were right for snow. 

 

[camturbo]

What's the thinking about wed? Are we any closer to what may happen? Or will it be lamp post watching.

[iowpompeylee]

Reports of snow in Newport on the Isle of Wight! Now starting to turn to snow here in Shanklin! Weird.. was heavy rain 15 mins ago 

[fromey]

I have this horrible nagging feeling about this touted cold spell.

I know the models look good and the back ground signals are good and there’s a possibility of a SSW but I can’t shake this feeling that we will miss out!

it seems to be promising so much but in reality is it really going to deliver?

I hope I’m very wrong but it’s just being niggling me for a few days now.

god please prove me wrong!

[Leon1]

2 minutes ago, fromey said:

I have this horrible nagging feeling about this touted cold spell.

I know the models look good and the back ground signals are good and there’s a possibility of a SSW but I can’t shake this feeling that we will miss out!

it seems to be promising so much but in reality is it really going to deliver?

I hope I’m very wrong but it’s just being niggling me for a few days now.

god please prove me wrong!

I feel the same but I think I'm just being pessimistic as all we've gotten out of this cold spell so far is rain.

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, fromey said:

I have this horrible nagging feeling about this touted cold spell.

I know the models look good and the back ground signals are good and there’s a possibility of a SSW but I can’t shake this feeling that we will miss out!

it seems to be promising so much but in reality is it really going to deliver?

I hope I’m very wrong but it’s just being niggling me for a few days now.

god please prove me wrong!

You and me both fromey.

I am still in denial of this possible snowy spell. I have seen too many almost certain snow events snatched to believe a 'maybe it will snow' warning from the met office. 

Anyway we have half an hour ish now for the met office to remove the warning... will they?

[Jayfromcardiff]

2 minutes ago, Nights King said:

You and me both fromey.

I am still in denial of this possible snowy spell. I have seen too many almost certain snow events snatched to believe a 'maybe it will snow' warning from the met office. 

Anyway we have half an hour ish now for the met office to remove the warning... will they?

Watch them leave the warning up to cover themselves. 

[AWD]

It was never ever forecast to bring anything notable.  Just a period of slightly below average temps that's been massively over hyped in the MOD thread.  

Like I say, don't expect nothing snow wise this week but the possibility is there for a transient fall or two for a select lucky few like we saw yesterday.

Latest 06z data edges any wintry PPN tomorrow slightly further south again overall, though not by too much.  Still maintain for now that Mendips, North Dorset onto Salisbury Plain is best poised for any snow that may fall/settle but even here probably only small amounts.  Rain or sleet more likely along southern coastal counties and Devon.

Edited December 29, 2020 by AWD

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Watch them leave the warning up to cover themselves. 

Yes I tend to only take amber warnings seriously because correct me if i am wrong but they must answer questions if they put up and then remove or get wrong amber/red warnings but yellow is just a low risk and no issue if dropped?

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, Nights King said:

Yes I tend to only take amber warnings seriously because correct me if i am wrong but they must answer questions if they put up and then remove or get wrong amber/red warnings but yellow is just a low risk and no issue if dropped?

I think that's correct. We should find out soon what they think anyway and my gut feeling is it'll go pear shaped yet again.

[camturbo]

8 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I think that's correct. We should find out soon what they think anyway and my gut feeling is it'll go pear shaped yet again.

Think it will go the shape of the pear as well but we live in hope.

[fromey]

I’ve just caught the 10am weather on BBC which is supplied by the Metogroup and it showed the ?snow/rain event heading towards the Channel Islands just grazing the south coast! 
all change again, now we wait the updates through the day.

hopefully the Met office can give us a better idea

[suxer]

1 hour ago, AWD said:

The trick when going into the MOD thread is to decipher the language correctly into realistic interpretation.  Like below for example;

- "most severe January in decades" equates to the south of England might see a couple of cm's of transient snowfall, some frost's are possible and Londoners will need their jumpers on.

- "it's a whiteout" equates to a harsh frost at lower levels and a dusting of snow at some favoured higher level locations.

- "blizzard conditions" equates to some grapeul blowing around in a soft breeze.

- " feel freezing at the surface" equates to milder 850hpa temps starting to erode any colder 850hpa temps but that doesn't matter because the UK is in a dome and shielded from anything that actually dictates the weather up above.  Birdlip might hit 0c at 01:30am.

- "the 850hpa temps don't matter" equates to less cold air is making inroads but I don't want to believe it.

- "that would feel bitter in the wind" equates to it will feel a bit nippy on Southend pier.

 

That's it stay positive 

[Rich_Clements]

I went out into the Cotswolds yesterday it was proper winter wonderland up there.

[Nights King]

2 minutes ago, fromey said:

I’ve just caught the 10am weather on BBC which is supplied by the Metogroup and it showed the ?snow/rain event heading towards the Channel Islands just grazing the south coast! 
all change again, now we wait the updates through the day.

hopefully the Met office can give us a better idea

The fat lady is already warming up to call time on our cold spell.. 

[The Enforcer]

There’s a pattern developing here:

28/12/20 - missed:

29/12/20 - missed:

n.b. Actual location is a few miles further east than plotted on the radar.

Edited December 29, 2020 by The Enforcer

[Nights King]

3 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

There’s a pattern developing here:

missed:

missed:

n.b. Actual location is a few miles further east than plotted on the radar.

We have a similar but different pattern here also -

 

[jethro]

Morning all, I can excitedly report it's situation normal here. Cold enough to not want to wander around in a t shirt, no wind so comfortable in a warm woolly, coat required if/when it rains again. Frosty when I went to bed, not frosty when I got up. Landscape consistent with the average Mendip winter...lots of brown, the odd bit of grey, occasional green dot of a holly bush or fir tree, all set against a slate grey background and very squishy underfoot. The only vaguely white thing to report are clouds.

Underwhelmed? Moi?

On a brighter note, we've got loads of long tailed tits in the garden, they only ever make an appearance when cold is incoming.

[chapmanslade]

42 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Rained this morning even though the conditions were right for snow. 

 

Well they obviously were not or it would have snowed !

[Monkeypants]

we've had a solid few hrs here again topping up yesterday's snow from the feature that moved in over Yorkshire last night. it's tracking ssw so you guys might get some of the white stuff it's still staying in 1 lump

[DanDorsetUK]

Well after my morning walk down here around Canford Cliffs Poole, it actually feels quite mild out really. Its very rare for Southern areas to do well from a North or North Westerly. Obviously alot of warm are mixing about. Doesn't put much hope on tomorrow's chances. Maybe if winds swing more North maybe a better chance.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Rapodo