November 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- the last month of this contest year

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 8.8C -0.1C Rainfall 16.9mm 21.3% of the monthly average.

GFS now hinting at much milder outlook until Thursday so a steady rise likely for the next four days. The damage mainly the nights which are looking very mild to warm. For us at least it looks like the fairly dry November will continue with little rain today and not much forecast for the coming week. Good chance of finishing in the top ten. 

Edited November 14, 2020 by The PIT

[Roger J Smith]

GFS has backed off its higher precip forecast from yesterday, and current EWP projection is around 60 mm by 24th with perhaps 15 mm indicated 25th to 30th. Meanwhile, most of the cold has gone too, although rather chilly looking by 29th-30th on the 12z run. Otherwise CET should stay in the 9s most of the way and could occasionally touch 10 (pre-adjustments, mind you) which I think is only the case for eight other Novembers after the 18th. My current estimate of the finish after adjustments would be 9.0. 

[Don]

18 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

GFS has backed off its higher precip forecast from yesterday, and current EWP projection is around 60 mm by 24th with perhaps 15 mm indicated 25th to 30th. Meanwhile, most of the cold has gone too, although rather chilly looking by 29th-30th on the 12z run. Otherwise CET should stay in the 9s most of the way and could occasionally touch 10 (pre-adjustments, mind you) which I think is only the case for eight other Novembers after the 18th. My current estimate of the finish after adjustments would be 9.0. 

What a surprise!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 8.9C +0.1C above normal. Rainfall limped to 18.7mm 23.6% of the monthly average.

GFS sort of indicating a cooler 2nd half of November at the moment ECM a warmer more settled outlook. GFS is appalling even at the short time periods and tends to over do the rainfall by a large amount.  The older version was much better at it. Temperature wise depending on the season it either over estimates or under estimates the temperatures even again at short time periods.

ECM would give us a one of the driest Novembers on record GFS it's in the balance.

Looks like there's going to be a big differences across the country as well every time my sister rings or I call her it's chucking it down.

Edited November 15, 2020 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

9.6c to the 14th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th & 8th

[Froze were the Days]

I'm going to be so far out this month...gambled on a continuation of near or fractionally below 61-90 CET series going by the early to medium range models at the beginning of the month which was a lead up the garden path.

Fear for the rest of the winter now we've had a few months near normal, sod's law will probably see ridiculously high anomalies for the winter period.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

18 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

I'm going to be so far out this month...gambled on a continuation of near or fractionally below 61-90 CET series going by the early to medium range models at the beginning of the month which was a lead up the garden path.

Fear for the rest of the winter now we've had a few months near normal, sod's law will probably see ridiculously high anomalies for the winter period.

If there be ice in November that will bear a duck, there will be nothing thereafter but sleet and muck

[Summer Sun]

9.7c to the 15th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th & 8th

[SLEETY]

nearly 3c out.What went wrong

[Don]

40 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

nearly 3c out.What went wrong

I’m exactly 3C out now!  

[Roger J Smith]

EWP around 52-54 mm now with 44 to the 14th, and yesterday's apparent 8-10 mm hit. Ten-day GFS only adds about 10 mm as an average, then four more days of rather dry anticyclonic weather adding next to nothing, totals around 65-70 mm possibly. 

Would say the CET will occasionally nip at 10.0 (whether in the adjusted data remains less certain) and will slump down towards 9.0 for a finishing value.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 8.9C +0.4C above normal. Rainfall 27.6mm 34.8% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

9.7c to the 16th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th & 8th

[cheeky_monkey]

On 12/11/2020 at 07:30, cheeky_monkey said:

Sunny Edmonton is at -1.8c to the 11th which is +2.3c above normal this is due to the record breaking warmth we had at the start of the month..been cold and snowy this last week 

Cloudy Edmonton is now at -4.3c which is now -0.2c below normal..colder than normal conditions have persisted through the weekend.

[Roger J Smith]

For continuity ...

9.8c to the 17th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th & 8th

-----------------------------------------------

EWP currently on 50 mm, looks to add 15-20 in next ten days (to 28th) and possibly 20 mm last two days. Total 85-90.

Note -- new contest year post can be expected by morning. 

[summer blizzard]

What was the most recent first half to be warmer.

[Roger J Smith]

2018 was running warmer (15th 9.9), this year's provisional on 15th (9.7) will probably be adjusted down , will revisit this after the 20th to see what rank this month has reached, seem to recall counting the Novembers with CET values above 10 at any point in second half and it was about ten of them, only one of course held on to the end. Besides 2018, 2015 (11.4) and 2011 (10.5) were considerably ahead on 15th. 

These are the top 20 on the 20th (this year will perhaps intrude but we'll have to see at month's end what value it actually had) ...

Rank __ Year ____ CET 20th __ eventual rank 

_ 01 ___ 1938 ____ 11.2 ______ 05 ( 9.4)

_ 02 ___ 2015 ____ 11.1 ______t03 ( 9.5)

_ 03 ___ 1994 ____ 10.7 ______ 01 (10.1)

_ 04 ___ 1978 ____ 10.4 ______t14 ( 8.5) 

_ 05 ___ 2011 ____ 10.1 ______ 02 ( 9.6)

_ 06 ___ 1817 _____ 9.8 ______ 08 ( 9.1)

_ 07 ___ 1818 _____ 9.7 ______t03 ( 9.5) 

_ 08 ___ 2003 _____ 9.5 ______t24 ( 8.1) 

_ 09t___ 1881 _____ 9.4 ______ 09 ( 8.9)

_ 09t___ 1982 _____ 9.4 ______t28 ( 8.0)

_ 09t___ 1852 _____ 9.4 ______t32 ( 7.9)

_ 09t___ 2018 _____ 9.4 ______ 21 ( 8.3)

_ 13 ___ 1939 _____ 9.3 ______t10 ( 8.7)

_ 14t___ 2009 _____ 9.2 ______t10 ( 8.7)

_ 14t___ 1951 _____ 9.2 ______t14 ( 8.5)

_ 16t___ 2014 _____ 9.1 ______t12 ( 8.6)

_ 16t___ 1894 _____ 9.1 ______t32 ( 7.9)

_ 18t___ 2002 _____ 9.0 ______t14 (8.5)

_ 18t___ 1948 _____ 9.0 ______t61 (7.3)

_ 18t___ 1898 _____ 9.0 ______t68 (7.2)

(1743 at 6th (9.3) and 1730 at 7th (9.2) had no daily data so are not available for ranking in the table). 

1821 (t12 with 2014 at 8.6) was at 8.9 on 20th

Both 1899 and 1953 (t14 at 8.5) were at 8.5 on 20th. 

1913 (t19 at 8.4) was at 8.7 on 20th. 1997 (t19 at 8.4) was at 8.9 on 20th.

That accounts for all of the top 20 cases either on 20th or end of month. 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

10.0c to the 18th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th & 8th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 9.2C +0.9C above average. Rainfall at 30.8mm 38.8% of the monthly average

 

No chance of a top ten driest finish here any more. Still dry though.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 9.1C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall 31mm 39% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

9.9c to the 19th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th & 8th

[summer blizzard]

Gavin in the other realm estimates 9.2C to months end. 

Today's Euro would make struggle to believe that, the GFS today would produce a cooler outcome.

[Roger J Smith]

I don't see a huge spread in outcomes from model to model, all are showing some cooler days ahead and means around 6 to 7 C for the last ten days, all would suggest an outcome between 8.5 and 9.0 likely. 

Odds and ends for CET, on provisional value 18th beat one of the weakest daily records left, 12.6 (1978), would not have beaten too many other days nearby, and not a final value yet either. At 6.0, the coldest daily mean early in the month stands tied second highest such value, with 1946 (encouraging), the highest value is 6.3 (2011) for the month's lowest daily mean. (a bit confusing, think of it as the highest value of all 248 tries at coldest of November's 30 mean daily). On final revision we may be closer or further away, assuming no day forthcoming falls lower (one or two might).

For the EWP the current value is around 55 mm, the GFS suggests almost 30 mm to come, but a lot of that is days 9-10 making it quite dependent on the model's accuracy with the low pressure widely advertised on various model depictions around 29th-30th. The total by the 28th is only expected to be around 70 mm. 

The exact finish will determine the winner of the annual contest, with Twilight sitting on 110 mm and Godber1 on 55 mm. Twilight is currently 2.57 points ahead and that is roughly equivalent to 16 rank intervals in the November scoring. Their two forecasts are separated by 42 others, a potential scoring differential of about 7.0 points, what it means then is Twilight must have an outcome no worse than 26 forecasts lower (42-16) which is 74 mm, to squeak past both Godber and two nearest challengers mb018538 (58 mm) and Mulzy (62 mm). That is only an approximation since the two forecasts below 55 mm would also come into play to determine total points differential. There could be a very close finish if either of those challengers (just 1.45 and 1.71 points further back than Godber1) were to achieve top score, but the way things are looking, Twilight has the edge with a good chance of going past 74 mm perhaps into the 80s or even low 90s. 

I won't post any speculative scoring, let's just wait and see what happens. 

[Summer Sun]

9.7c to the 20th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th & 8th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 9C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall at 32.1mm 40.4% of the monthly average

Looking like a slow drift downwards on the present runs for the next 5 days or so.