Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Mucka]

Just for a little fun now Xmas day charts are coming into view I will post a score chart from GFS 00z runs. 

Each run that has England under -5 or lower upper air wills core 1 for Santa, Each that does not will score 1 for Sidney.

Today 9/12/2020 Xmas morning chart, close run thing but round goes to Sidney

 

Santa 0 V 1 Sidney 

 

Edited December 9, 2020 by Mucka

[northwestsnow]

Its going to rain, and rain and rain some more....

Brilliant.

 

[Matty88]

From my point of view I'd love to moan but the situation this year is so much better at present... it annoys me when people say 'but Europe is so warm at the moment', is it?  Much of EE is sat under a high pressure which appears to be mildish on the GFS screen, but beneath it - slap bang under it, you are talking daytime surface cold of -4 to -8 and freezing conditions across Russia, much different to how it has been this last few years. All is not what it seems... and the Atlantic isn't going to start lobbing mild lows across the continent anytime soon with that in place and blasting the UK in the process. This is why I think the charts are struggling at the moment. 

Won't mean necessarily we'll get cold here in the UK but the ingredients are there this year at least... it's a better prospective at present!! Rant over 

[snowspotter]

I’ll keep this quick . Mountains of analysis on the mod thread. I agree the pattern looks different this year but my gut feeling is that we are heading back to a wet period of mild to average temperatures. I just can’t see a cold spell ever getting close . I think global warming is making it more and more difficult to get the correct set up . I reckon I could log off for a week and come back and we’d still be 10-14 days away from potential . Reality will likely be December gone and mild and wet overall . Much as the met office predicted .

[northwestsnow]

Looks like I'm finding myself in a familiar place the moan thread in Dec  for the foreseeable.

For every mild wet winter I feel any excitement fade.

It just doesn't seem to really matter what the background signals are anymore,the net result is the same,year in year out.

 

[carinthian]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like I'm finding myself in a familiar place the moan thread in Dec  for the foreseeable.

For every mild wet winter I feel any excitement fade.

It just doesn't seem to really matter what the background signals are anymore,the net result is the same,year in year out.

 

As the TV weatherman with a facial nod and a wink says , " You will be glad to know at least it will be mild ". Glad I do not have to endure BBC weather forecasts anymore !

[Guest]

Hey all, thought I'd drop by for some winter Mild ramping. Thankfully those horrid easterlies have disappeared and the foreseeable, at least down here looks mild. Hopefully be able to turn the heating down from tomorrow. 

Seriously though a few days ago a pretty blocked setup looked good going into the second half of the month however that seems to have collapsed what happened? Monday's max temp of 2C was 4.5C colder than anything we had last winter, unless a truly blocked setup does materialise I'd say its fair bet many places in the south may have already seen their coldest day of the 20/21 winter.

[carinthian]

Mild it is again for most of lowland Europe. Of course no Christmas Markets this year and fake snow. The real snow seems to reside at about 1 mile up in the atmosphere. Lots of it during the past decade or so. Maybe one of the ironies' of Global Warming. The Met Office forecasts of no more ice days and snow free winters in parts of Europe is a sure worry for the future. 

C

[Northernlights]

2 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Mild it is again for most of lowland Europe. Of course no Christmas Markets this year and fake snow. The real snow seems to reside at about 1 mile up in the atmosphere. Lots of it during the past decade or so. Maybe one of the ironies' of Global Warming. The Met Office forecasts of no more ice days and snow free winters in parts of Europe is a sure worry for the future. 

C

I think something similar was said in the early 2000s and then we had November/December 2010 and the BFTE in February 2018 all within ten years both with "Lake Effect" snow off the North Sea again something I had not seen before in my lifetime. Feeling positive this morning as its finally stopped raining, the sun is out and we will not need the lights on all day as we have had in the last five days!

[topo]

15 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Mild it is again for most of lowland Europe. Of course no Christmas Markets this year and fake snow. The real snow seems to reside at about 1 mile up in the atmosphere. Lots of it during the past decade or so. Maybe one of the ironies' of Global Warming. The Met Office forecasts of no more ice days and snow free winters in parts of Europe is a sure worry for the future. 

C

The problem is not that it is mild again.

The problem is that it is RECORD mild again!

Over 5 degrees above normal in most of Norway in November(record breaking) and the same patterns continues in December(I can also see some records there if GFS verifies). 

No problem with the mildness, I know we are heading towards more and more mild winters, but right now we are breaking records..

[carinthian]

1 minute ago, topo said:

The problem is not that it is mild again.

The problem is that it is RECORD mild again!

Over 5 degrees above normal in most of Norway in November(record breaking) and the same patterns continues in December(I can also see some records there if GFS verifies). 

No problem with the mildness, I know we are heading towards more and more mild winters, but right now we are breaking records..

hI topo,

 My daughter lives in Stockholm for the past 3 years and not seen a white Christmas yet  ! Just grey winter days with drizzle and hardly a snowflake to be seen. Reached 10c last Saturday.

[carinthian]

15 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

I think something similar was said in the early 2000s and then we had November/December 2010 and the BFTE in February 2018 all within ten years both with "Lake Effect" snow off the North Sea again something I had not seen before in my lifetime. Feeling positive this morning as its finally stopped raining, the sun is out and we will not need the lights on all day as we have had in the last five days!

Hi NL , hope alls good in the Great White North . Think prolonged cold winters are now a distant memory or not for most. 62/63  78/79  all seems along time ago. Get your point about short severe spells and the early winter cold of  December 2010.

C

ps .. reports of huge snowfalls becoming dangerous not far from here .

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Thinking back to 2018 BFTE, the amount of snow generated in the form of ‘lake effect’ snow from the North Sea was simply staggering, and the first time I’ve seen proper drifting powder type snow! That was with sea temps at or below 4-5c too! 

I actually fear for the day we see a 1987 type event over today’s ‘warmer’ seas. That day is coming at some point I feel, even if it would be regarded as a 1 in a 100+ year event. Uppers of -15 to -20c over a sea of 8-10c much bigger than Lake Michigan and superior would give mind boggling totals. 1947 I suppose was the telling levels. Some areas had their houses covered and mechanical railway signals 40ft high in Lincolnshire were submerged I have been told. 

[Eagle Eye]

[Snow lover 2020]

We are in for a mild winter 

[Ali1977]

Something must be showing up

on the pro’s charts 

[Howie]

It's so frustrating that the euro trough has just magically disappeared just when the NH profile looks perfect for cold weather. Why has the Euro high suddenly reared its ugly head 

[Northernlights]

7 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Thinking back to 2018 BFTE, the amount of snow generated in the form of ‘lake effect’ snow from the North Sea was simply staggering, and the first time I’ve seen proper drifting powder type snow! That was with sea temps at or below 4-5c too! 

I actually fear for the day we see a 1987 type event over today’s ‘warmer’ seas. That day is coming at some point I feel, even if it would be regarded as a 1 in a 100+ year event. Uppers of -15 to -20c over a sea of 8-10c much bigger than Lake Michigan and superior would give mind boggling totals. 1947 I suppose was the telling levels. Some areas had their houses covered and mechanical railway signals 40ft high in Lincolnshire were submerged I have been told. 

Happened here in 1973 just days before Christmas snow drifts reached the second floor windows of the farmhouse  on a SE gale and I came home for Christmas a few days later from Crieff farm work experience and was met by 8 foot walls of snow cut by a snowblower on the side roads.All you could see from the car was the blue sky above the snow banks  Really cross I was not here to experience it.

[SLEETY]

"Their were numerous stories of people climbing out of upstairs windows onto the snow"

Thats the headline I want to hear for this winter,

Certainly the best chance of seeing some severe Winter weather in the UK for about a decade,and NOT in the spring time.

Still surprised by the negativity in this place,have people forgotten what the Weather Charts usually look like at this time of year.

At least we have a fair chance of something resembling Winter for a change.

 

[Mucka]

Today 10/12/2020 Xmas morning chart, easy round to Sidney. (If you are a cold fan and want to stay sane don't look at GFS 00z)

Santa 0 V 2 Sidney 

[DavidS]

Really wish I wasn’t awake to see the 00z GFS roll out.

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, DavidS said:

Really wish I wasn’t awake to see the 00z GFS roll out.

Not convinced ukmo will turn out that much different tbh...

Its going to rain,lots.

Whoooppppeee.

[swfc]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not convinced ukmo will turn out that much different tbh...

Its going to rain,lots.

Whoooppppeee.

Maybe if all you lot have been good this year santa mighnt bring you a 47 esque winter

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Maybe if all you lot have been good this year santa mighnt bring you a 47 esque winter

I think its more do with the warming planet ...

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Winter hasnt yet begun its still astronomical Autumn. True Winter begins on 21st December and judging by a lot of the comments in model thread you'd think Winter ends at Xmas. Its sad we might not get a dumping of snow but lets look forward to record breaking warmth for December.... 20C? 30C? At least days might be warmer than days during the rotten mid-june that has just passed.