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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

Just off Fiji, a new cyclone was born today. From what little I've so far read, it seems to be expected to hang around in the general area and build to around Cat 3 before heading south with a 40% chance of significantly impacting NZ while undergoing transition to post-tropica some time around Christmasl.

On the other hand, there's always the HWRF take on the storm...
image.thumb.png.b1f72d3056a11ab5829d83d3d0e1993d.png
 

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

Now predicted to be a Cat. 5 over Fijian islands.  https://www.met.gov.fj/

@FijiNDMO  "Every Fijian should prepare now for heavy rain, damaging winds, coastal inundation, and flooding across the country"

"TC Yasa is expected to intensify and upgrade into a category 5 system as it moves closer to the group on Thursday" Fiji Met

TC Zazu (cat2) is over Tonga, moving away. 

"Very destructive winds with average speed of 165km (100mph) per hour gusting up to 230km (143mph) per hour is expected over Yasawa and Mamanuca Group, western parts of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu early on Thursday and gradually affect the rest of the group from later Thursday. These winds can cause widespread destruction to properties and infrastructure, severe disruption of electrical power distribution and communication services. It can also cause total damage to crops and vegetation. Continuous heavy rain will start to affect the group from tomorrow. Due to anticipated widespread heavy rain, there is risk of river flooding and flash flooding of low lying and flood prone areas. With the ground already saturated, there is also risk of landslides in landslide prone areas. As TC Yasa moves closer towards the group, high waves of possibly more than 6 meters is expected which poses the risk of storm surge and coastal inundation along coastlines of Fiji"

 

 

dec15fijiYASA.png

dec14tcyasufiji.png

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

Looks like after Fiji (seemingly a major landfall for this storm), anything else depends on how this ridge weakens, or doesn't as the case may be. 

It might dodge left and weaken towards northwestern Australia or run through the Tasman Sea, or it could head straight down south and give NZ's Northland region a bad day. The thing I'm finding interesting with this storm (and crossing my fingers that things don't get too bad for Fiji here), is how finicky the steering of it is.

Screenshot 2020-12-16 at 1.53.36 AM.png

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

I can see Zazu on Southern Pacific cyclone name list (two beyond Wiki), but where has Yasa come from? 

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
dec16yasafront19.png
WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

Fiji prepares for Category 5 Yasa, a powerful Pacific cyclone due on Thursday 17th December.

#FijiNews  @FJMETservice

dec16yasasurfaceP.png

dec16yasaJTWP.png

dec16yasaFIIpath.png

dec16yasaSAT2NOAA.png

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
5 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

I can see Zazu on Southern Pacific cyclone name list (two beyond Wiki), but where has Yasa come from? 

Yasa is on the list of the south pacific names - page 20

https://wmoomm.sharepoint.com/:b:/s/wmocpdb/ETLwxbvAV9tMp0igLsaSE-ABrcKpHtUom1djMugRwue9Ew?e=W52WRj

Edit 11:38 : - Is it just me that finds South Pacific naming odd? Why does it run backwards?

Edited by crimsone
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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

That's one scary system. 

899 hPa!
https://twitter.com/WeatherWatchNZ/status/1339314230655270912

Special mention of the 12m wave heights, of course. This region of the world typically has quite calm seas.

Yasa will likely make landfall today. Possibly later this afternoon, or possibly tonight, NZ time, clearing the two main islands by the following morning. Landfall might be a relative term - the center of the eye could yet pass right between the two main islands. The JTWC path has a direct hit on Vanua Levu (the northernmost large island),  crossing over its southernmost region.

Pre-posting edit: Slightly out of date video from NZ's WeatherWatch here (Literally just published, and yet already the cyclone's dropped to sub-900). Gives a good broad overview:

Fiji radar currently looking grim, with the heavy outer bands currently lashing it down over the two main islands and the eye creeping in to the left of frame.

Edited by crimsone
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Just about to make landfall

525298428_ezgif.com-gif-maker(12).thumb.gif.62f7f7b3d72aac31b316c01b9e136c1d.gif

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
10 hours ago, crimsone said:

Yasa is on the list of the south pacific names - page 20

https://wmoomm.sharepoint.com/:b:/s/wmocpdb/ETLwxbvAV9tMp0igLsaSE-ABrcKpHtUom1djMugRwue9Ew?e=W52WRj

Edit 11:38 : - Is it just me that finds South Pacific naming odd? Why does it run backwards?

Yasa must have formed first, it was the first named storm of the season. But dawdled about, so up to the top of the next list for A... 

dec16yasaWMOtracks.png

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