Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Wetterfrosch]

1 hour ago, DeepSnow said:

Shame we seem to have missed the storms this time round, winds just the wrong direction and suppose not enough land heating going on over the SW to produce any to being to us. Hopefully next time round it will fall right for us (and on my days off! ).

Looks like a hot few days this week now (im prepared with my new air con) and then possibly becoming more unsettled next week when I have a week off, typical lol.

So far, I can only share your misery! All I got was 1.8 mm last night without any thunder but, having said that, something is brewing now to my SE and hopefully not miss me this time. Consistent rumble for almost an hour now, just got back in from my dog walk and first raindrops falling as I type. So, I'd better go and close some windows just in case as this looks promising.

[Crepuscular Ray]

I can report a massive thunderstorm earlier over Mynydd Dhu/the Black Mountain, although - to my great frustration - it went a couple of miles north-east of me. It sounded good from a distance, but all I got was 0.2 mm of rain.

[Wetterfrosch]

17 minutes ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

I can report a massive thunderstorm earlier over Mynydd Dhu/the Black Mountain, although - to my great frustration - it went a couple of miles north-east of me. It sounded good from a distance, but all I got was 0.2 mm of rain.

Well, that seems to be the name of the game! Again, just a couple of mm's for me after such an impressive overture of thunder, had hoped for a fair bit more to be honest. Amber warning out now for NE Wales - has anybody ever explained why the good people of that part of old Cymru get it all, the snow in winter and the thundery downpours in summer? Anything to do with the Cheshire gap, perhaps? Not that I am green with envy, but just wonder what the geographic/orographic particularities are that makes NE Wales so much more prone to those extremities?!? Even so, I don't think I will be doing a great deal of watering tonight. Hopefully, a little bit more rain may drift in from the east overnight before we go back to square one!

[Snowyowl9]

Yesterday gave a thundery shower west of here 1.30 to 2.20pm it was rumbling in newtown..

Today was a slow starter hottest day of the year at 28.2c 

A few cumulus started appearing east breeze not much going on..

Then a few started towering more SW and west again heard the odd rumble then lines of CB clouds TCU thundery showers so from about 4.35 to 8.50pm..

The thundery showers were closing in SE to NW then we were surrounded no escape there were 6 diferent storms going off at the same time then the main thunderstorm came from the ESE and gave 0.2 inches of rain..

phenomenal clouds today just like the early 80s thunder heard tops of those clouds..

Edited June 12, 2023 by Snowyowl9

[Sky Full]

The next couple of days will probably see this spell of lovely summery weather peaking for my location with more unbroken sunshine and temperatures probably topping out at around 26C.  After that things may turn a little more unsettled for the weekend and next week temperatures are likely to be 6-8C lower, generally.  There are some indications that another warm/hot spell could occur towards the end of the month but it’s too far off to rely on, yet.

[DeepSnow]

23.5C here already, I think 27-28C possible today here, will be our warmest day of the year. Will look forward to some slightly cooler weather come the weekend/next week!

[DeepSnow]

Just reached 29C here, was forecast a high of 27C, boiling but lovely clear skies, just a shame we don't have the conditions today to brew some storms now we have the heat here.

[Wetterfrosch]

Well, all is forgiven now that I got my fix on rain. Although 13.1 mm is not that much after all the dryness of recent weeks, at least it will be a lighter watering session tonight and the rumble of thunder was certainly memorable with the last lightning strikes hitting ground still at 2 am this morning. Seems today may be the hottest day of the year at 29 C and it certainly feels it!

[Marcus_surfer]

Reached 28C earlier today in the city, it was even 26C down the Gower. It's currently 21C at 11.53PM.

[Wetterfrosch]

13 hours ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Reached 28C earlier today in the city, it was even 26C down the Gower. It's currently 21C at 11.53PM.

Can believe it as at the same time my thermometer still showed 22.7 C but as it's close to the house may well be overcooked by residual heat emanating from it's walls. Even so, such balmy nights I would normally not expect before the second half of July and throughout August. What might these months hold for us this year, i wonder?

[DeepSnow]

We had a high of 28C today, currently 27.3C. I've noticed they have upped tomorrow's temperature to 27C again when it was saying 25C yesterday.

I do hope for some rain over the weekend, either via storms (my preferred option, or just showers) my poor clay garden is solid and the plants are not very happy about it. 

[Wetterfrosch]

1 hour ago, DeepSnow said:

We had a high of 28C today, currently 27.3C. I've noticed they have upped tomorrow's temperature to 27C again when it was saying 25C yesterday.

I do hope for some rain over the weekend, either via storms (my preferred option, or just showers) my poor clay garden is solid and the plants are not very happy about it. 

I do feel for your poor plants in such a challenging soil, at least mine is what one might consider 'normal' (apart from an abundance of stones in it!) but nevertheless still needs it's fair share of irrigation by human hand in such prolonged dry spells (well, not really a spell any more, is it?). Signs seem to be firming up of somewhat wetter but still fairly warm conditions taking hold from the forthcoming weekend. Below is a chart courtesy of weatheronline.com for Sunday. Sorry I'm no expert in posting charts and as a result of my humble efforts the scale went AWOL but what it shows is 10 - 20 mm for most parts and 5 - 10 mm for the NW. MO seems to be on board with forecasting showers from the weekend too. Whether we will see thunderstorms  remains to be seen though!

 

 

 

[Wetterfrosch]

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[Wetterfrosch]

Seems I'm not clever enough for the modern world but the change as described above still seems likely!

[Sky Full]

13 hours ago, Wetterfrosch said:

I do feel for your poor plants in such a challenging soil, at least mine is what one might consider 'normal' (apart from an abundance of stones in it!) but nevertheless still needs it's fair share of irrigation by human hand in such prolonged dry spells (well, not really a spell any more, is it?). Signs seem to be firming up of somewhat wetter but still fairly warm conditions taking hold from the forthcoming weekend. Below is a chart courtesy of weatheronline.com for Sunday. Sorry I'm no expert in posting charts and as a result of my humble efforts the scale went AWOL but what it shows is 10 - 20 mm for most parts and 5 - 10 mm for the NW. MO seems to be on board with forecasting showers from the weekend too. Whether we will see thunderstorms  remains to be seen though!

Yes, some rain is forecast for Wales over the next few days but the models don’t all agree on the amount…

These show accumulated rainfall over Wales up to 1:00am Monday morning:

GFS                                                                UKMO

     
 

The UKMO is quite a bit more reserved about rainfall totals over the next four days, but I think it’s fair to say that the west will likely be wetter than the east!

 

 

 

[DeepSnow]

This is day 3 of breaching 28C in my sheltered street, current max today 28.3C, temp 27.8C but will likely rise again to peak around 5pm, been around 1-2c warmer every day than predicted. I will say its been lovely to have the nice weather and temps in high 20s for a few days, now I have a way of escaping in the house to cooler air for a break. Would have been better had I not been in work melting and been out down the coast enjoying it

[Wetterfrosch]

9 hours ago, Sky Full said:

Yes, some rain is forecast for Wales over the next few days but the models don’t all agree on the amount…

These show accumulated rainfall over Wales up to 1:00am Monday morning:

GFS                                                                UKMO

     
 

The UKMO is quite a bit more reserved about rainfall totals over the next four days, but I think it’s fair to say that the west will likely be wetter than the east!

Thank you very much for that graphic comparison! Wouldn't be the first time if UKMO eventually started to catch up with the supposedly inferior product which we all know tends to be first in picking up new trends. Perhaps it's just wishful thinking on my part, getting tired of the repeated watering sessions in the evening. I had a builder round this past two days, working in full sun on the front of the house and, guess what, today he called in sick. His son chose to go topless which makes me wonder if his skin is peeling off by now? What were they thinking???

[Sky Full]

Phew!  Hot and sultry today with a thin veil of high cloud at times which didn’t do much to moderate the temperatures. We to Carmarthen today where the thermometer was reading 29C (but this is not a reliable measurement!).  A little dribble of rain here in the last 30 minutes has now passed over us towards the north but more is heading our way for this evening.   The gardens and the farmland around here will be very grateful for every drop!  With a widespread thunderstorm warning out for Sunday, it looks like our long spell of settled summer weather is about to end….. 

[Wetterfrosch]

1 hour ago, Sky Full said:

Phew!  Hot and sultry today with a thin veil of high cloud at times which didn’t do much to moderate the temperatures. We to Carmarthen today where the thermometer was reading 29C (but this is not a reliable measurement!).  A little dribble of rain here in the last 30 minutes has now passed over us towards the north but more is heading our way for this evening.   The gardens and the farmland around here will be very grateful for every drop!  With a widespread thunderstorm warning out for Sunday, it looks like our long spell of settled summer weather is about to end….. 

Quite so, and as the drop in temperature appears to be modest it might even turn out decent growing weather! Light rain here now for the last two hours and temperature down to 19 C from 27 C at midday, with virtually no wind quite pleasant actually!!

[A Gower Guy]

Really looking forward to a bit of rain just to water things naturally however after weeks without rain all we've had this week is a couple of dampen the ground showers and looking at forecasts we'll miss most of any proper rain in the coming days too. 

Rain has become the new snow recently, everywhere else but here, and don't even get me started with thunderstorms

[Snowyowl9]

A couple of unexpected thundery showers last night..

Quit pacey lightning thunder heard a good many times,started off with just distant lightning no thunder..

Quite a pokey thundery shower east infrequent thunder but quite loudish..

Although there were a few mid level cumulus to the east yesterday afternoon but nothing much..

Much more of that cloud out west this morning best day this year..which can produce virga frequent upper lightning at night but its daytime thunderstorms coming today..

Edited June 18, 2023 by Snowyowl9

[Daniel_c150311]

nice cells on the radar anyone see them?

[Snowyowl9]

Seems very close sferics but I can t hear nothing let alone see much with all that altrostratus..

Edit  I can just hear a few faint rumble west to south..

Mid level cumulus pity that other sheet of cloud is spoiling things..

 

 

Edited June 18, 2023 by Snowyowl9

[Sky Full]

After weeks of a persistent easterly / north easterly flow, bringing dry and sunny weather to this area, we now have a complete change of wind direction back to the more usual south-westerly.  This has brought back a string of moderate to heavy showers from the Atlantic overnight and this morning which has done wonders to water the gardens and the farmland around here.  Even more rain is forecast for tomorrow but the predictions of rain for this location haven’t been very accurate recently (including repeated warnings of thunderstorms which never arrived!) and at the moment I’m finding that the best way to know what the weather is going to do is to look out of the window….

[Marcus_surfer]

There were a few heavy showers overnight but its back to more sunshine today, feeling less humid and more cooler with a nice southwesterly breeze