South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 minute ago, Dorsetbred said:

So let me get this right:

* We never do well from an Easterly here.

* We never do well from a Northerly here.

*We never do well from a Westerly here as the temperatures rise too quickly

*We never do well from a Southerly here unless it' SUMMER!

Yeehah, what hope is there....NONE...time to go back in to hibernation....

Waaah! Stop eet you'll make me cry! Let's all huddle cuddle up in a corner and share hankies. (Forget Corona lol)

[matt111]

Just now, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Waaah! Stop eet you'll make me cry! Let's all huddle cuddle up in a corner and share hankies. (Forget Corona lol)

You shouldn't be feeling too down. At least you had some time sledging and crashing into road signs not long ago, unlike some of us   

[*Stormforce~beka*]

3 minutes ago, matt111 said:

You shouldn't be feeling too down. At least you had some time sledging and crashing into road signs not long ago, unlike some of us   

Your very right! There is something about snow though and the more you get the more you want! LOL. Bit like money ...

[DanDorsetUK]

Not to sure where windy .com get there snow coverage from but they have Southern Dorset covered in snow from 9am Tuesday.

Also it seems dewpoints become much better from 1am tonight.

 

Update: Ah i see you can switch models! Thats really impressive

Edited February 7, 2021 by The Moving Planet

[festivalking]

Mmmm icon again stalling the front on Thursday.  Someone somewhere will get a snowfeast in the South West this week......surly!

[AWD]

12z AROME highlighting tomorrow's expected weather well.

Scattered snow flurries likely in specific locations where streamers set up shop to the east of our region.  These currently favoured for the M4 area into Glos by this model;

Many areas remaining 100% dry though.

Later in the day, snow showers/flurries make there way west, through southern central counties;

Edited February 7, 2021 by AWD

[DanDorsetUK]

Arome has some good streamers coming this way i must say. Hopfully its underplayng it which is normally the case!

[AWD]

FWIW, the 12z Arpege has Thursdays/Fridays front getting no further NE than Taunton/Lyme Regis before fizzling out;

[Kreftysoton]

Looking dry for the entire week here 6 miles south east of southampton... so difficult to get any snow here recently.  Slight downgrade on temps for the week 0,0,2,2,4 and 6 on Saturday.

[Skullzrulerz]

4 minutes ago, AWD said:

FWIW, the 12z Arpege has Thursdays/Fridays front getting no further NE than Taunton/Lyme Regis before fizzling out;

It is further east then the previous run ?

[Jayfromcardiff]

19 minutes ago, AWD said:

12z AROME highlighting tomorrow's expected weather well.

Scattered snow flurries likely in specific locations where streamers set up shop to the east of our region.  These currently favoured for the M4 area into Glos by this model;

Many areas remaining 100% dry though.

Later in the day, snow showers/flurries make there way west, through southern central counties;

One of those streamers goes straight through my location, probably won't happen anyway.

[Glenosnow]

41 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Been there done that LOL!! You need some fake snow! Always gives me my fix

I've got some polystyrene in the garage,I'll get the cheese grater on it 

[Matty-H]

Met Office outlook doesn’t even mention transitional snow, which surprises me:

“Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Tuesday and Wednesday will be cloudy, with a chance of snow showers along southern coasts on Tuesday. Rain moves in Thursday. Continuing to be very cold with brisk easterly winds.”

[AWD]

6 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It is further east then the previous run ?

Didn't see the previous run.  Just commenting that the Arpege model doesn't get it further east than the chart I have shown.

It will ebb and flow within all various differing model suites anyway, it's still over 96 hours away remember.

[kumquat]

Come on Wash streamer give it some welly.

[Blizzardof82]

Icon gives us snow at end of week as front stalls

[AWD]

12z ICON is a Bank Bank Bank all day long IMBY;

Pretty much the perfect stall for many of us, with the exception of Cornwall (sorry Cornish folk).

Shame it is the ICON and shame it is over 96 hours away still.

[snowysouth]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

12z ICON is a Bank Bank Bank all day long IMBY;

Pretty much the perfect stall for many of us, with the exception of Cornwall (sorry Cornish folk).

Shame it is the ICON and shame it is over 96 hours away still.

If only! But I don't believe it. Every upcoming spell is watered down here. Every.single.time

[Dorsetbred]

38 minutes ago, The Moving Planet said:

Not to sure where windy .com get there snow coverage from but they have Southern Dorset covered in snow from 9am Tuesday.

Wishful thinking forecast, a new way of doing things...

[Dorsetbred]

1 minute ago, snowysouth said:

If only! But I don't believe it. Every upcoming spell is watered down here. Every.single.time

And then there is of course reality!

Edited February 7, 2021 by Dorsetbred

[chris55]

4 minutes ago, Matty-H said:

Met Office outlook doesn’t even mention transitional snow, which surprises me:

“Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Tuesday and Wednesday will be cloudy, with a chance of snow showers along southern coasts on Tuesday. Rain moves in Thursday. Continuing to be very cold with brisk easterly winds.”

That is a bit odd. Thursday looks to early for the front anyway, regardless of what it is? Also if its 'very cold with brisk easterly winds', at the very least it would be freezing rain, or a wintry mix.

Maybe they let the admin staff do the updates on a Sunday

 

 

 

[AWD]

12z ICON actually has some support, from Netweathers own medium range model.

The 12z Netweather model showing something very similiar (albeit with a timing difference);

Again, sorry Cornwall.

Worth noting, these charts are just for fun at this stage, forecast remains very uncertain beyond Thursday, just trying to illustrate that there remains a chance for a significant snow event for parts of our region if luck is on our side.

[khodds]

I’ve lost my positive attitude of yesterday and now see no hope on the horizon. I know we are less than a day in but it looked so promising a few days ago

[John88B]

Hard to say exactly where showers/streamers occur and impossible at this range to say exactly where fronts stall. What is sure to say is we're all in the game with plenty to play for. Exciting times.

[Dorsetbred]

Right so it's still overcast here and the temperatures peaked at 4.6°C at: 13:48, now down at the morning figures of 2.7°C, with the cloud around they are going to struggle to go that much lower I suspect..

Edited February 7, 2021 by Dorsetbred